Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Cities journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities Governance reaction to the emerging megacity shrinkage in Tokyo: The case of the Tsukuba express transit-suburban region Eigo Tateishi a,*, Kyoko Takahashi b, Taku Nakano c a Department of Urban Studies, Malmo¨ University, 8F, Nordenskioldsgatan¨ 1, Malmo,¨ Sweden b Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Building of Environmental Studies, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa City, Chiba 277-8563, Japan c Building Research Institute, 1 Tachihara, Tsukuba city, Ibaraki 305-0802, Japan ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: This article provides insight into how the governance system of megacities, as an assemblage of many different Megacity factors, can preemptively react to emerging shrinkage. This is a topic that is rarely addressed in the current Shrinkage literature. The article examines the suburban region of the Tokyo Megacity served by the Tsukuba Express. The Governance region is studied both quantitatively and qualitatively using a mixed-methods approach, and the results are Post-suburb related to the governance system model as originally developed. The results suggest that shrinkage-preemptive Tokyo governance involves a mix of pro-growth and shrinkage-adapting strategies, but that implementing such stra­ tegies through interpolicy and intermunicipal coordination is problematic in growing metropolitan suburbs. We suggest (1) the national government plays a role in interpolicy coordination and regional governance of shrinkage, (2) the formation of political consciousness around regional transit infrastructure to foster regional coordination, and (3) a regional effort to restructure regional socio-economic identities to mitigate dependence on Tokyo and enhance economic resilience. This study shows that governance system models can assist planners and policymakers in engaging with the complexity of post-growth urban challenges. 1. Introduction 2015, p. 37; Pallagst et al., 2019, 2017; Sousa & Pinho, 2014). Yet the mode of governance can also be changed through the interactions be­ Urban shrinkage is the sustained population loss of a given spatial tween different factors such as the severity of shrinkage (Hartt, 2018, p. area that dynamically interacts with factors such as demography, the 11), the path dependency of planning institutions (Galster, 2019; Sousa economy, and the built environment (Haase et al., 2016, p. 89; Martinez- & Pinho, 2015), public debates on shrinkage (Haase et al., 2017; Mal­ Fernandez et al., 2012, p. 214; Schilling & Logan, 2008, p. 452; Weaver lach et al., 2017; Nelle et al., 2017), the self-confidence of local actors et al., 2017, pp. 3–5). It poses planning challenges in national and local (Lang, 2012), and intermunicipal competition for financialand political contexts because it is associated with vacant houses, urban decay, eco­ resources (Lang, 2012; Phelps & Wood, 2011; Weck & Beißwenger, nomic decline, unemployment, and segregation (Doringer¨ et al., 2019). 2014). As these challenges become apparent internationally, urban governance These findingssuggest that the strategy and formation of shrinkage- to adapt to shrinkage is increasingly receiving scholarly attention adapting governance cannot be adequately comprehended by focusing (Doringer¨ et al., 2019, p. 7). only on a single, static aspect of urban governance in action. Rather, we Studies have revealed that it is challenging to change conventional need to analyze governance as a governance system: a dynamic assem­ pro-growth modes of governance to shrinkage-adapting modes (Hartt, blage of actors (with their own perceptions and public debate), objects 2018; Hospers, 2014; Pallagst et al., 2019; Schlappa, 2017). For plan­ (policies, institutions, and the conditions of shrinkage), and relations (e. ners, accepting shrinkage is not simply switching to new professional g., with other localities) to work toward urban shrinkage (Tietjen & approaches—it is a long-term “mourning process” to fundamentally Jørgensen, 2016). restructure urban governance (Elzerman & Bontje, 2015, p. 88). Studies There is an emerging need for planning studies to understand how a seem to agree that planners’ perceptions are a key determinant of governance system will (and should) react to the shrinkage of megacities. different trajectories of this long restructuring process (Camarda et al., Although this topic is rarely addressed in the current literature, there are * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (E. Tateishi). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.103033 Received 21 October 2019; Received in revised form 7 October 2020; Accepted 6 November 2020 0264-2751/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Please cite this article as: Eigo Tateishi, Cities, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.103033 E. Tateishi et al. Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx two reasons why the governance of megacity shrinkage should receive to be feasible for growing metropolitan suburbs, yet the lack of inter­ more scholarly attention. First, considering potential depopulation on a policy and intermunicipal coordination remains a hindrance. On the global scale (Bricker & Ibbitson, 2019; Vollset et al., 2020), the regional coordination problem, we share the concern of Ohashi and shrinkage of megacities is a probable scenario during the 21st century Phelps (2020) regarding the increasing difficulty of forging “metropo­ (Kawai et al., 2019; Phelps & Ohashi, 2018; Sorensen, 2019). Experts in litics” (cf., Orfield, 1997). many mature cities are paying attention to post-sub­ To foster effective governance of shrinkage, we formulated three urbanization—“densification, complexification and diversification of policy implications: (1) the national government needs to play an active the suburbanization process” (Charmes & Keil, 2015, p. 581) and its coordinator role in interpolicy coordination and regional governance of politics (Hudalah & Firman, 2012; McArthur, 2017; Phelps & Wood, shrinkage, (2) transit-suburban municipalities need to develop a 2011; Sweeney & Hanlon, 2017). Yet the shrinkage of megacities—the regionally orchestrated political consciousness around the issues of disassembly of inner and outer metropolitan suburbs—will likely raise a regional transit infrastructure to foster regional coordination, and (3) new international challenge in urban politics and governance (Kawai metropolitan suburbs need to restructure regional socio-economic et al., 2019; Phelps & Ohashi, 2018, pp. 1–2). Second, considering their identities to mitigate their dependence on the Tokyo Metropolis and strong physical and institutional path dependency (Sorensen, 2019), to enhance their economic resilience for emerging shrinkage. Like the megacities should, even when they are growing, incorporate prepared­ actor-network analysis of strategic planning by Tietjen and Jørgensen ness for future shrinkage in their governance system to effectively adapt (2016), governance system models like the one presented here may help to post-growth (sub)urbanization (Ohashi & Phelps, 2020). Accordingly, planners and policymakers to engage with the complexity of post- our objective is to understand how the governance system of megacities, growth urban challenges, which are asymmetrically different from as an assemblage of multifaceted factors, can preemptively react to those in the growth phase (Galster, 2019). emerging shrinkage. To achieve this objective, we studied the Tokyo Megacity (hereafter, 2. Governance of shrinkage as a system Tokyo), one of the first shrinking megacities in the world (UN, 2018). While the Tokyo Metropolis is likely to experience population growth The governance—“the process through which collective affairs are until 2025 (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 2017), its metropolitan managed” (Healey, 1997: 206)—of shrinkage is increasingly receiving 1 suburbs have been shrinking since 2010 (MLIT, 2018c ; Suzuki & Asami, scholarly attention as urban shrinkage poses planning challenges in 2019). Hence, these suburbs are both the frontline as well as the various national and local contexts. However, studies reveal that the “frontier” of emerging megacity shrinkage (Ohashi & Phelps, 2020). The governance of growth, largely depending on elitist, market-driven pol­ future retrofitting or regeneration of these suburbs is emerging as a icies, still overwhelms the planning practice in shrinking cities (Hartt, governance challenge (Phelps & Ohashi, 2018; Phelps & Wood, 2011). 2018; Hospers, 2014; Pallagst et al., 2019; Schlappa, 2017). This We have chosen to focus our case analysis on the metropolitan suburban attachment to pro-growth governance is unsurprising. For planners, region served by the Tsukuba Express (hereafter, TX suburban region) as accepting shrinkage is not simply switching to new professional this is the newest and last large-scale transit-oriented development in approaches—it is a long-term “mourning process” to fundamentally ¯ Japan (Osawa, 2019). We identifiedtwo research questions: (1) How is restructure urban governance (Elzerman & Bontje, 2015, p. 88). the governance system of the TX suburban region reacting to the Underlying the difficulty of this process is the complexity of urban emerging shrinkage? and (2) What are the major challenges for the TX shrinkage. As Galster (2019) argues, shrinking processes tend to be governance system