LSE ELECTIONS AND IDENTITY POLITICS IN KYRGYZSTAN 1989-2009 - MOVING BEYOND THE ‘CLAN POLITICS’ HYPOTHESIS Fredrik M Sjoberg Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Philosophy (MPhil) Department of Government London School of Economics and Political Science London July 2009 Final version: 01/12/2009 11:49 UMI Number: U615307 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615307 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. Fredrik M Sjoberg 2 Abstract This dissertation examines the emergence of political pluralism in the unlikely case of Kyrgyzstan. The main question is: How can we explain ‘pockets of competition in semi­ authoritarian states?The literature has focused on identity politics and more specifically on the ‘clan politics’ hypothesis, which states that competition is organized along the lines of kinship groups (‘clans’) and that competition is therefore fractionalized, especially in rural areas. Kyrgyzstan is shown to be a critical case for the ‘clan politics’ literature. The unit of analysis is two-fold: Single-Member Districts (SMD) and individual candidates in parliamentary elections 1995-2005. Evidence is provided through a candidate survey («=160), expert interviews, and local level statistics. The whole idea that there actually exists such an informal institution as ‘clan politics’ in Kyrgyzstan is questioned. At least ‘clans’ do not exist as corporate groups that actual possess agency characteristics. A ‘clan’ in the Kyrgyz sense of the word, uruu/uruk, is shown to be something that necessarily involves kinship, therefore refuting a widely used metaphorical conceptualization of the phenomenon. The reason for the politization of these genealogical categories in some rural districts can be found in the incentive structure of the electoral system (SMD), the causal story being: contests were localized and no viable national-level parties existed, therefore some political entrepreneurs turned to imagined ‘clans’ instead to rally support. This created the impression that there were corporate ‘clan’ groups that coordinated electoral behavior in rural Kyrgyzstan. Competitiveness has been reduced over time, with the 1995 elections being the most fragmented in terms of Effective Number o f Candidates. Until the December 2007 PR elections no new party system emerged. In 2005, the elections were especially competitive in the south, where the already mobilized campaigners later formed the backbone of the ensuing ‘Tulip revolution’ protests. It is shown that the introduction of election mechanisms empowered local elites to challenge the authorities. Campaign experience and financial resources were also important factors in many competitive races. 3 TfceseS F ( L o •»isrS5S as&r* f Table of Contents ELECTIONS AND IDENTITY POLITICS IN KYRGYZSTAN 1989-2009 - MOVING BEYOND THE 'CLAN POLITICS' HYPOTHESIS........................................................................................................................................1 Declaration.........................................................................................................................................................2 Abstract...............................................................................................................................................................3 Table of Contents............................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Figures and Tables...............................................................................................................................7 Maps................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Figures ............................................................................................................................................................. 7 Tables...............................................................................................................................................................7 Note on Transliteration and Names.............................................................................................................9 Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 1: ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NEWLY INDEPENDENT STATES - A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK........................................................................................................................................................11 State-Building, Democratization, and Elections.................................................................................... 13 Building a State ............................................................................................................................................ 13 Procedural Democracy ................................................................................................................................14 Elections and political parties ....................................................................................................................17 Informal Institutions.................................................................................................................................... 20 Institutions ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Particularism: Patron-client relationships and Clientelism .................................................................. 23 Identity politics - 'Clan Politics'.................................................................................................................25 Kinship...........................................................................................................................................................27 'Clan' and 'Tribe' ...........................................................................................................................................29 Dissertation outline...................................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 2: STUDYING INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS AND ELECTORAL POLITICS................................33 Assumptions .................................................................................................................................................35 Hypothesis....................................................................................................................................................35 Specific Research Questions .......................................................................................................................36 Methodology Summary ...............................................................................................................................36 Informal institutions in former Soviet republics.................................................................................. 38 Kinship, 'clan' and tribalism in Central Asia .............................................................................................39 'Clan' terminology in Kyrgyzstan .............................................................................................................. 40 Operationalization and measuring 'clan' and clientelism ......................................................................44 Operationalization of competitiveness, accountability, and party strength.................................47 Competitiveness ...........................................................................................................................................47 Accountability ..............................................................................................................................................49 Case Selection: Why FSU and Kyrgyzstan?...............................................................................................52 Why a single-country case study on Kyrgyzstan? .................................................................................. 52 First take on Elections in Kyrgyzstan......................................................................................................