2014 Figures Nature Begins Where Human Predication Ends Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) 17th to 27th June, 2008 Credit: National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines, 2012 Tashfeen Siddique – Research Fellow AIM – Stephen Zuellig Graduate School of Development Management 8/15/2014 Nature Begins Where Human Predication Ends Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations: ...................................................................................................... iv Brief History ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Philippines Climate ........................................................................................................................... 2 Chronology of Typhoon Frank ....................................................................................................... 3 Forecasting went wrong .................................................................................................................. 7 Warning and Precautionary Measures ...................................................................................... 12 Typhoon Climatology-Science ..................................................................................................... 14 How Typhoon Formed? .............................................................................................................. 14 Typhoon Structure ...................................................................................................................... 14 Size of a Typhoon ....................................................................................................................... 15 Effects and Damages ..................................................................................................................... 16 Field Interviews: Iloilo Province ......................................................................................... 19 Municipality of Dumangas ........................................................................................................ 19 Municipality of Pototan .............................................................................................................. 22 Municipality of Zarraga.............................................................................................................. 22 Municipality of Santa Barbara ................................................................................................. 24 Iloilo City Disaster Risk Reduction & Management office ............................................... 26 Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Council ........................................... 28 National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) ............................................................ 28 Field Interviews: Aklan Province ........................................................................................ 30 Municipality of Libacao .............................................................................................................. 30 Municipality of Banga ................................................................................................................. 31 Municipality of Numancia .......................................................................................................... 32 Municipality of Makato ............................................................................................................... 33 Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction & Management office, Kalibo ................................. 35 Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management office, Aklan ............................. 37 Common Findings from the interviews .................................................................................... 38 Analysis of Disaster preparedness and response....................................................... 39 Responder’s Profile ..................................................................................................................... 39 Level of understanding or awareness ................................................................................... 39 Tashfeen-Research Fellow i Nature Begins Where Human Predication Ends Knowledge and Effectiveness of Warnings .......................................................................... 40 Preparedness ................................................................................................................................ 41 Humanitarian Assistance & Response ...................................................................................... 42 Role of Media .................................................................................................................................... 43 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................... 44 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 46 Annexures .......................................................................................................................................... I Annex – I, Climate Map of the Philippines ............................................................................. I Annex: II - Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) ............................................................ II Annex-III, Questionnaire for Analyzing the Awareness Level........................................ III Bibliography ................................................................................................................................... IV Special Thanks .............................................................................................................................. VI Figures FIGURE 1 : GRAPH TAKEN FROM THE REPORT TITLED ‘TYPHOONS IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, 1566-1900’ SHOWED THE NORMALIZED MONTHLY TYPHOONS LAND FALLING IN THE PHILIPPINES FOR 1564-1864, 1865-1900 AND 1945-2000 (UNISYS) .................. 1 FIGURE 2 : BREEDING GROUNDS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, WHERE THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE FORMS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA & WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ILLUSTRATION CREDIT: JACK WILLIAMS, USA TODAY: THE WEATHER BOOK (1992) (DAVID MICHAEL V. PADUA, TYPHOON CLIMATOLOGY, 2012)............................................................................................................................ 2 FIGURE 3 : TABLE FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, ANNUAL REPORT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE RSMC TOKYO -TYPHOON CENTER 2008 ................................................................................................................................................... 3 FIGURE 4 : TRACK OF TYPHOON FENGSHEN, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, ANNUAL REPORT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE RSMC TOKYO -TYPHOON CENTER 2008 ........................................................................................................................... 4 FIGURE 5 : TRACK OF TYPHOON FRANK – PROVIDED BY PAGASA-DOST ................................................................................. 5 FIGURE 6 : TYPHOON FRANK TRACK WITH RAINFALL DETAILS FROM EARTH OBSERVATORY MISSION WEBSITE HTTP://EARTHOBSERVATORY.NASA.GOV/IOTD/VIEW.PHP?ID=8868.............................................................................. 6 FIGURE 7: INITIALLY FORECASTING TRACK; IMAGE COURTESY FROM THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY MR. JESSE FERRELL, PUBLISHED ON ACCUWEATHER.COM ON 25TH JUNE, 2008 ........................................................................................................... 10 TH FIGURE 8: TACK AS OF FRIDAY; IMAGE FROM THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY MR. JESSE FERRELL, PUBLISHED ON ACCUWEATHER.COM ON 25 JUNE, 2008 .................................................................................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 9: ACTUAL TRACK; IMAGE FROM THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY MR. JESSE FERRELL, PUBLISHED ON ACCUWEATHER.COM ON 25TH JUNE, 2008 .................................................................................................................................................... 11 FIGURE 10 : INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TYPHOONS, IMAGE COURTESY OF IMAGE TAKEN FROM COMET PROGRAM, THE WEATHER PHILIPPINES FOUNDATION ............................................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 11 : IMAGE COURTESY OF THE WEATHER PHILIPPINES FOUNDATION, A GRAPHICAL ILLUSTRATION & SATELLITE VIEW OF A TYPHOON SHOWING ITS PARTS. IMAGE CREDIT BY: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS. ILLUSTRATION BY: DAVID MICHAEL V. PADUA ........................................................................................................................................................... 14 Tashfeen-Research Fellow ii Nature Begins Where Human Predication Ends FIGURE 12: A SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM THAT SHOWS THE HORIZONTAL VIEW OF A WELL-DEVELOPED TYPHOON REACHING A VERTICAL HEIGHT OF 40,000 TO 50,000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. IMAGE CREDIT: THE COMET PROGRAM, THE WEATHER PHILIPPINES FOUNDATION .................................................................................................................................................................... 15 FIGURE 13: VIEW OF REGION VI WITH TRENCHES AND FAULT TRACES, CREDIT TO MR. MAE Y. MAGARZO, OIC, CHIEF GEOLOGIST, GEO SCIENCES DIVISION, MINES AND GEO-SCIENCES BUREAU, REGIONAL OFFICE NO. VI ........................................................