Post-fire impact assessment for priority frogs: northern Philoria Geoffrey Heard, Liam Bolitho, David Newell, Harry Hines, Hunter McCall, Jill Smith and Ben Scheele July 2021 Cite this publication as: Heard, G., Bolitho, L., Newell, D., Hines, H., McCall, H., Smith, J., and Scheele, B., 2021. Post-fire impact assessment for priority frogs: northern Philoria. NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub Project 8.1.3 report, Brisbane. Main cover image: Philoria habitat. Image: Liam Bolitho. Insert images (from top to bottom): Philoria kundagungan. Image: Harry Hines; Philoria richmondensis. Image: David Newell; Philoria loveridgei. Image: Harry Hines. 2 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Background .................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Study species .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Objectives .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Context ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Study area and survey sites .....................................................................................................................................................................................9 Site surveys ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12 Assessments of fire severity and habitat attributes ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Remote-sensed and other spatial variables ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 Data analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Findings ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Area of habitat burnt ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Outcomes of surveys ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Occupancy modelling ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Abundance modelling ............................................................................................................................................................................................18 Comparisons with surveys prior to the 2019/2020 fires.............................................................................................................................. 20 Area of occupancy estimates after the 2019/2020 fires ............................................................................................................................... 21 Discussion ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Impact of the 2019/2020 fires .............................................................................................................................................................................22 The role of drought.................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Drought and fire are key threats under climate change ...............................................................................................................................23 Other threatening processes ................................................................................................................................................................................23 Application of research ....................................................................................................................................................................................................24 Conservation status ................................................................................................................................................................................................24 Protection from fire in the near term .................................................................................................................................................................24 Protection from ungulates and weeds ..............................................................................................................................................................24 Captive populations, head-starting and reintroduction ................................................................................................................................25 Ongoing monitoring ...............................................................................................................................................................................................25 Impact of the research ....................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Greatly expanded knowledge of distribution ...................................................................................................................................................26 Development of a monitoring framework........................................................................................................................................................26 Informing review of EPBC listing and development of conservation advice ..........................................................................................26 Informing assessment of fire impacts on biodiversity ...................................................................................................................................26 Identifying feral ungulate incursions ..................................................................................................................................................................26 Outreach ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Broader implications .........................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Future research priorities .................................................................................................................................................................................................27 Continue long term monitoring, with an expanded set of sites .................................................................................................................27 Complete spatial prioritisation analyses ............................................................................................................................................................27 Complete detailed autecological studies .........................................................................................................................................................27 Clarify impacts of chytridiomycosis ...................................................................................................................................................................27