THE PINHAS SAPIR CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY “The Chosen Many: Population Growth and Jewish Childcare in Central-Eastern Europe, 1500-1930” Maristella Botticinii, Zvi Ecksteinii, Anat Vaturiiii Discussion Paper No.4-16 March 2016 i Thanks to The Pinhas Sapir Center for Development at Tel Aviv University as well as Israeli Science Foundation grant no. 1401/2012 for their financial support 1 We wish to thank Dima Kolotilenko and Stas Tarasov for their excellent and devoted research assistance in collecting the data and summarizing the vast literature related to this paper. In addition, we wish to thank the following list of scholars who helped us with the project: Tali Berner, Sergio DellaPergola, Avner Greif, Judith Kalik, Jonathan Karp, Aviad Kleinberg, Joel Mokyr, Yochanan Petrovski-Stern, Moshe Rosman, Noga Rubin, Tamar Salmon-Mack, Merav Schnitzer, Shaul Stamper, Adam Teller, and Dorota Żołądź-Strzelczyk. i Maristella Botticini, Bocconi University and CEPR, [email protected] ii Zvi Eckstein, IDC Herzliya, Tel Aviv University and CEPR, [email protected] iii Anat Vaturi, Haifa University, [email protected]. Abstract: The paper documents the growth of the Jewish and non-Jewish populations in the regions of Germany-Austria (GA) and Poland-Lithuania (PL) from 1500 to 1930. Although borders changed considerably, we attempt to maintain comparability throughout the period. We summarize evidence that a large proportion of the Jewish population in PL originated from GA and find no significant evidence for the immigration of Khazars or any other Jewish group from the East. While the proportion of Jews in the total population of PL was only 0.13% in 1500, this figure reached more than 17% by 1880 and the Jewish population in PL constituted more than 75% of the global Jewish population in that year. This population grew at an annual rate of about 1.4% from 1500 to 1930 while the Jewish population in GA grew at a rate of 0.88%. Meanwhile, the total populations of GA and PL grew at about the same annual rate of approximately 0.40%. The main reason for the higher growth rate of the Jews is their lower death rate. Thus, while their birth rate was about the same as that of non-Jews, infant and child mortality among Jews was much lower in both PL and GA. We claim that Jewish childcare, as manifested, for example, in the duration and methods of breastfeeding and in the Jewish practice of remarriage, is among the primary reasons for the exceptional population growth of the Jews. In future research, we will examine the question of why this occurred in the PL community rather than any other. Keywords: breastfeeding, child mortality, Germany-Austria, infant death rate, Jewish population, Poland-Lithuania, total population JEL: N00, N30, N33 1. Introduction This paper documents the growth of the Jewish and total populations in the regions of Germany-Austria (hereafter: GA) and Poland-Lithuania (hereafter: PL) from 1500 to 1930. We divide the period into two sub-periods: a) 1500-1800 which is roughly the period prior to the collapse of the Polish-Lithuanian state; and b) 1800-1930 which was a period of changing borders, industrial revolution and large-scale migration of Jews out of Central-Eastern Europe. We attempt to keep the geographic territories of GA and PL as constant as possible throughout the period. The territory of GA approximately corresponds to the area of the Holy Roman Empire or the Reich in around 1500 while the territory of PL approximately corresponds to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the beginning of the 17 th century. This demarcation of boundaries between GA and PL is consistent with the different property rights regimes in place in each region prior to 1800 and makes it possible to track the flow of internal migration and migration between the regions. We will also describe (in section 2) the historical background of GA and PL, which became the most important centers of world Jewry up until WWII. It is from here that Jews set off for America, Western Europe and Israel, which in turn became the main Jewish centers after the Holocaust. The project is based on a comprehensive effort to collect and compare the available demographic data necessary for the analysis of Jewish demographic history and the understanding of long-term population trends. Since the data suffers from a number of limitations and the geographic comparibilty of the data is beset with difficulties, our conclusions are subject to some unavoidable limitations and some uncertainty, part of which can perhaps be eliminated with further investigation. Regarding the period before statististics become availabe, the analysis is based primarily on secondary sources. We use the estimates provided by Germania Judaica and key historians of German Jewry (including Guggenhaim, Toch, Battenberg, Israel and Bell) and the Holy Roman Empire (including Rabe, Schormann, Whaley, Hartmann), who collected data from the occasional local population counts, tax lists, church registers and other available primary sources. We are aware of the scarcity of reliable data and the problematic character of the estimates, but feel that the data is sufficiently reliable in order to grasp long-term trends. 2 Regarding early modern Poland-Lithuania, the data is gathered from YIVO and various widely accepted works by leading demographic historians of Polish Jewry (including Kupovetsky, Weinryb, Ettinger, Stampfer and Kalik) and Poland (including Gieysztorowa and Kuklo). Although we generally accept the numbers provided by Weinryb and Stampfer, we nonetheless describe the ongoing debates over various demographic issues and outline the problematic character of the sources. For the modern period, we use a variety of secondary sources and the available statistical data. 3 Since early tax-oriented censuses (such as the one in 1764) usually suffer from underrepresentation of the Jewish population, in addtion to other inadequacies, we accept the corrections carried out by modern scholars (such as Mahler, Stampfer and Kalik). When possible, the analysis is supported with data gathered by governmnt statistical offices and published in Zeitschrift für Demographie und Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch für den Preussischen Staat and reports of the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). For the regions subject to Russian rule, we use critically adjusted figures published in authoritative secondary sources. In 1500, there were only 10–15 thousands Jews in PL, which constituted less than 2% of the global Jewish population and only 0.13% of the population in PL. In section 3, we describe the origins of the Jewish populations in GA and PL and summarize evidence that the majority of the Jews in PL arrived from GA during the 12 th to 15 th centuries. The Jews in PL and GA shared the same religious, educational, and cultural background. In 1880, there were 4.7 million Jews in the former PL who accounted for about 75% of the global Jewish population and 17% of the total population in PL.4 In around 1500, there were only 40,000 Jews in GA and by 1880 their number had reached only 760,000 (1.35% of the total population in GA). Figure 1.1 summarizes the population data collected for this study. The data shows that the total populations of GA and PL grew at almost the same rate of about 0.43 3 In the Prussian kingdom, the censuses were usually conducted at three-year intervals (from 1816 till 1871) or five-year intervals (from 1871 until WWI). In Austria, comprehensive censuses were carried out in 1869 and every ten years during the period 1880-1910. 4 S. DellaPergola (2010, p. 56, table 3). 3 percent from 1500 to 1930 (during the earlier period of 1500-1880, the rate was about 0.20 percent; see Figure 4.1). The growth rate of the Jewish population was, in contrast, much higher in both regions and even more so in PL where the growth r ate was about 1.4% for the entire period. In what follows, w e will endeavor to explain the reasons behind this exceptional growth in the Jewish population of PL. Figure 1.1: The Jewish and total populations of GA and PL, 1500 -1930 (in logs) This rapid growth of the Jewish population in PL is again generat ing interest, following the recent claim by Sand (2009) that the Jews of PL may have originated from the Kha zars who converted to Judaism in the 8th century. In section 3 , we summarize the studies that attempt to disprove the existence of a significant Jewish community in the Khazarian Kingdom. Even if there was a Jew ish population in the Khazarian Kingdom and they indeed migrated westward to the PL region, either before or after the Mongol invasion in the 13 th century, no traces can be found of them among the Jews of PL in around 1500. Jew ish groups who settled in Christian areas of Europe, including Karaite Jews who migrated to the eastern frontiers of PL and remained there for generations, usually preserved their distinct practices and as a community were granted privileges by the king or the local ruler and paid taxes to him. No evidence of this can be found for the Khazars. 4 There is no indication of large-scale migration of non-Ashkenazi Jews to Poland from the East. There is a possibility, though no concrete evidence, of the migration of a small number of Jews to PL from the East following the Mongol invasions of the 13 th century. Some migration westward, as well as the presence of small communities of non-Ashkenazi Jews on the eastern frontier of PL during the 15 th century cannot be ruled out either.