8 Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) Authors P.J. Ward Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands E.C. van Ierland Environmental Economics and Natural Resources , Wageningen University, The Netherlands Y. Budiyono Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands The Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Jakarta, Indonesia P. Wijayanti Environmental Economics and Natural Resources , Wageningen University, The Netherlands Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Bogor, Indonesia S. Muis Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands M.A. Marfai, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia Poerbandono, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia M.M. Julian, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia A. Fauzi Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Bogor, Indonesia This research project (HSINT02a: Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools) was carried out in the framework of the Dutch National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate (www.knowledgeforclimate.org) and Delta Alliance. This research programme is co-financed by the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. Copyright © 2014 National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate/Nationaal Onderzoekprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat (KvK) All rights reserved. Nothing in this publication may be copied, stored in automated databases or published without prior written consent of the National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate / Nationaal KvK report number Onderzoekprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat. Pursuant to Article 15a of the Dutch Law on authorship, sections KfC 139/2014 of this publication may be quoted on the understanding that a clear reference is made to this publication. ISBN/EAN Liability 978-94-92100-07-8 The National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate and the authors of this publication have exercised due caution in preparing this publication. However, it can not be excluded that this publication may contain errors or is incomplete. Any use of the content of this publication is for the own responsibility of the user. The November 2014 Foundation Knowledge for Climate (Stichting Kennis voor Klimaat), its organisation members, the authors of this publication and their organisations may not be held liable for any damages resulting from the use of this publication. Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) Content Summary ............................................................................................................ 7 1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 11 1.1 Background .......................................................................................... 11 1.2 Framework ........................................................................................... 12 1.3 Aims and objectives .............................................................................. 14 1.4 Setup and scope of the report .............................................................. 15 5 1.5 Key scientific results from HSINT02a .................................................... 15 1.6 Key societal results from HSINT02a ...................................................... 16 2 Study area and past research ............................................................... 19 2.1 Study area ............................................................................................ 19 2.2 Physical and socioeconomic drivers of flood risk in Jakarta .................. 20 3 Methods and tools ............................................................................... 23 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 23 3.2 STREAM: water-balance assessment model ......................................... 24 3.3 SDAS: erosion and sediment-delivery assessment model ..................... 26 3.4 Coastal economic exposure assessment tool ....................................... 28 3.5 Damagescanner-Jakarta: city-scale river flood risk assessment model . 30 3.6 Economic modelling tool for selection of flood protection measures .. 34 3.7 Method for assessing local actual flood damages for a specific flood event .................................................................................................... 43 3.8 Cost Benefit Analysis of flood protection measures ............................. 45 3.9 National scale probabilistic flood risk assessment tool for Indonesia ... 48 4 Past, present and future assessments .................................................. 51 4.1 River discharge ..................................................................................... 52 4.2 Erosion and sediment delivery ............................................................. 59 4.3 Coastal flood economic exposure ......................................................... 62 4.4 River flood risk at the city-scale ............................................................ 67 4.5 River flood damages at the local-scale ................................................. 76 4.6 River flood risk at the national scale ..................................................... 81 5 Effects of adaptation measures ............................................................ 87 5.1 Impacts of Presidential Decree on Spatial Planning on water balance and sediment yield ............................................................................... 88 Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) 5.2 Impacts of small scale adaptation measures on flood risk .................... 92 5.3 Impacts of large sale adaptation strategies at the national scale ......... 97 6 Flood risk governance in Jakarta ........................................................ 101 6.1 Flood risk management and governance characteristics .................... 101 7 Societal relevance .............................................................................. 105 7.1 Stakeholder workshops ...................................................................... 105 7.2 Embedding of JCAT in local research and policy ................................. 107 7.3 Dissemination outside scientific community ...................................... 108 7.4 Education ........................................................................................... 109 6 6 8 Main conclusions and recommendations ........................................... 111 8.1 Contribution to knowledge and capacity building, and dissemination of results ................................................................................................ 111 8.2 Development and improvement of methods and tools ...................... 112 8.3 Improved flood risk information by incorporating scenarios of future changes in physical and socioeconomic conditions ............................ 113 8.4 Assessing the impacts of several adaptation strategies ...................... 115 8.5 Future research directions ................................................................. 117 9 References ......................................................................................... 119 10 Annexes .............................................................................................. 133 Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) Summary Background and motivation Major floods have become commonplace in Jakarta. For example, during the period in which this project was carried out, major flooding occurred in both 2013 and 2014. The flood in January 2013 was one of the most severe on re- cord, and reportedly caused economic losses of ca. US$ 3billion; 47 fatalities; and the damage or destruction of at least 100,000 houses. Historical records show that flooding per se is not a new problem in Jakarta, and that flooding has occurred throughout the city’s history. However, the impacts of flooding have increased in recent decades, as a result of changes in both physical (e.g. land 7 subsidence and erosion) and socioeconomic (e.g. population growth and urban expansion) drivers. Moreover, the future flood problems in Jakarta may poten- tially be exacerbated due to climatic change. Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) In response, the project Jakarta Climate Adaptation Tools (JCAT) was set up to contribute to scientific knowledge and the development of methods and tools to assess flood risk in Jakarta. This report summarises the main findings of JCAT. The specific aims of JCAT are: • To contribute knowledge and capacity building on flood risk and cli- mate change in Jakarta, including the training of 2 PhD candidates; • To develop and improve methods and tools for assisting in decision- making on flood risk adaptation, including flood risk assessment and socioeconomic evaluation methods that can serve as a basis for plan- ning and communication with stakeholders and the integration of spa- tial planning and water management; • To improve flood risk information by incorporating scenarios of future changes in physical and socioeconomic conditions; • To assess the impacts of several adaptation strategies in terms of costs and benefits in order to assist in identifying solutions for reducing the risk of flooding; • To disseminate results to stakeholders in Jakarta, and more broadly to scientists and practitioners in other delta cities worldwide. Main outcomes JCAT has contributed to knowledge and capacity building in three main ways, namely through education, workshops and joint research