Shining a Brighter Light: Comprehensive Evidence on Adoption and Diffusion of CGIAR-related Innovations in Ethiopia Frederic Kosmowski, Solomon Alemu, Paola Mallia, James Stevenson, Karen Macours October 2020 SPIA Synthesis Report The Standing Panel on Impact Assessment The Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) is an external, impartial panel of experts in impact assessment appointed by the System Council and accountable to it. SPIA is responsible for providing rigorous, evidence-based, and independent strategic advice to the broader CGIAR System on efficient and effective impact assessment methods and practices, including those measuring impacts beyond contributions to science and economic performance, and on innovative ways to improve knowledge and capacity on how research contributes to development outcomes. https://cas.cgiar.org/spia Permissions SPIA encourages fair use of this material under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (BY-NC-SA 4.0) providing proper citation is made. Recommended Citation Kosmowski, F., Alemu, S., Mallia, P., Stevenson, J., Macours, K. (2020). Shining a Brighter Light: Comprehensive Evidence on Adoption and Diffusion of CGIAR-Related Innovations in Ethiopia. Rome: Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA). Authors Frederic Kosmowski, Solomon Alemu, Paola Mallia, James Stevenson, Karen Macours Editor Heidi Fritschel Design and layout Macaroni Brothers/Luca Pierotti Cover Photo: Farmer works in restored terraced fields in the Yewol watershed highlands, Ethiopia. Credit: WLE/M. Ayene Shining a Brighter Light: Comprehensive Evidence on Adoption and Diffusion of CGIAR-related Innovations in Ethiopia Frederic Kosmowski, Solomon Alemu, Paola Mallia, James Stevenson, Karen Macours SPIA Synthesis Report Contents Abbreviations v Acknowledgments viii Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 1. Ethiopia’s Agricultural Sector: On a Road to Transformation 8 2. Methods and Data 11 2.1 Identifying CGIAR-Related Innovations 12 2.1.1 Guide to the stocktaking 12 2.2 The Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey (ESS) 15 2.3 Measurement Approaches 17 2.3.1 Animal Agriculture 17 2.3.2 Crop Germplasm Improvement 18 2.3.3 Natural Resource Management (NRM) 20 2.3.4 Innovations from government policy 21 2.4 Data Analysis 21 2.4.1 Share and Number of Rural Households Reached 21 2.4.2 Description of the Adopters: Who and Where? 22 3. CGIAR-Related Innovations in Ethiopia (1999–2019) 24 3.1 Animal Agriculture 25 3.1.1 Delivery of Improved Dairy Genetics 25 3.1.2 Delivery of Improved Genetics through Community Approaches 25 3.1.3 Improvement and Delivery of Improved Chicken Breeds 26 3.1.4 Facilitating Access to Improved Forage Varieties 26 3.2 Crop Germplasm Improvement 27 3.2.1 Barley Varieties 28 3.2.2 Desi and Kabuli Chickpea Varieties 29 3.2.3 Maize Varieties 30 3.2.4 Sorghum Varieties 31 3.2.5 Sweet Potato Varieties 32 3.2.6 Common Haricot Bean Varieties 32 3.2.7 Wheat Varieties 33 3.3 Natural Resource Management (NRM) 33 3.3.1 Landscape-Level Sustainable Land Management (SLM) 33 3.3.2 Agricultural Water Management (AWM) Innovations 34 3.3.3 Broad Bed Maker (BBM) 34 3.3.4 Conservation Agriculture (CA) 35 i 3.3.5 Tree Seed Centers 35 3.4 Innovations in Government Policy 36 3.4.1 Direct Seed Marketing (DSM) 36 3.4.2 Livestock Master Plan (LMP) 37 3.4.3 Market-Oriented Extension (MOE) 37 3.4.4 Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) 38 3.4.5 Water Users Associations (WUA) 38 4. Adoption Rates and Changes 40 4.1 Animal Agriculture 44 4.1.1 Delivery of Improved Dairy Genetics 44 4.1.2 Delivery of Improved Genetics through Community Approaches 44 4.1.3 Improvement and Delivery of Improved Chicken Breeds 44 4.1.4 Facilitating Access to Improved Forage Varieties 45 4.2 Crop Germplasm Improvement 46 4.2.1 Barley Varieties 46 4.2.2 Chickpea Desi and Kabuli Varieties 48 4.2.3 Maize Varieties 48 4.2.4 Sorghum Varieties 51 4.2.5 Sweet Potato Varieties 52 4.2.6 Common Bean Varieties 53 4.2.7 Wheat Varieties 53 4.3 Natural Resource Management 54 4.3.1 Innovations in Agricultural Water Management and Soil and Water Conservation 54 4.3.2 Broad Bed Maker 55 4.3.3 Conservation Agriculture 55 4.3.4 Tree Seed Centers (TSCs) 56 4.4 Innovations from Government Policy 57 4.4.1 Productive Safety Net Program 57 4.4.2 Water Users Associations 57 5. Who Are the Adopters? 58 5.1 Animal Agriculture 60 5.1.1 Delivery of Improved Dairy Genetics 60 5.1.2 Improvement and Delivery of Improved Chicken Breeds 60 5.2 Crop Germplasm Improvement 62 5.2.1 Barley Varieties 62 5.2.2 Chickpea Kabuli Varieties 62 5.2.3 Maize Varieties 62 5.3 Natural Resource Management (NRM) 62 ii 5.3.1 Innovations in Agricultural Water Management and Soil and Water Conservation 62 5.3.2 Conservation Agriculture 63 5.3.3 Tree Seed Centers (TSC) and related 63 5.4 Innovations from Government Policy 63 5.4.1 Productive Safety Net Program (PNSP) 63 5.4.2 Water Users Associations 63 6. Where Are the Adopters? 64 6.1 Insights from the Location of Research Activities 66 6.2 Animal Agriculture 67 6.2.1 Delivery of Improved Dairy Genetics 67 6.2.2 Delivery of Improved Genetics through Community Approaches 67 6.2.3 Improvement and Delivery of Improved Chicken Breeds 67 6.2.4 Facilitating Access to Improved Forage Varieties 68 6.3 Crop Germplasm Improvement 68 6.3.1 Barley Varieties 68 6.3.2 Chickpea Kabuli Varieties 69 6.3.3 Maize Varieties 69 6.3.4 Orange-Fleshed Sweet Potato (OFSP) Varieties 70 6.3.5 Awassa-83 Sweet Potato Variety 70 6.4 Natural Resource Management (NRM) 71 6.4.1 Innovations in Agricultural Water Management and Soil and Water Conservation 71 6.4.2 Conservation Agriculture 71 6.4.3 Tree Seed Centers and Related 71 6.5 Innovations from Government Policy 72 6.5.1 Productive Safety Net Program (PNSP) 72 6.5.2 Water Users Associations 72 7. Synergies between CGIAR-Related Innovations 73 7.1 Animal Agriculture–Crop Germplasm Improvements 75 7.2 Animal Agriculture–Natural Resource Management 75 7.3 Animal Agriculture–PSNP 75 7.4 Crop Germplasm Improvement–Natural Resource Management 75 7.5 Crop Germplasm Improvement–PSNP 76 7.6 Natural Resource Management–PSNP 76 8. DNA Fingerprinting: What Do We Learn from the Comparison with Survey Data? 77 8.1 Misclassification: Measurement Error across Categories 77 9. The Way Forward: Priorities for Future Surveys 80 10.Summary and Conclusions 82 References 87 iii Appendices 99 Appendix A. Questions/Protocols Used to Measure CGIAR-Related Innovations in the ESS 99 Chickpea 99 Orange-fleshed sweet potato 99 Chickpea 100 Crop residue cover 101 Appendix B. Improved Varietal Adoption Estimates for Other Crops 103 Appendix C. Origins and Traits of Improved Varieties Released in Ethiopia 104 Appendix D. Improved Varieties Included in the Reference Libraries for DNA Fingerprinting 113 Appendix E. Overview of the Formal Seed Production and Distribution System in Ethiopia 114 Appendix F. Adoption Rates from ESS3 (2015/16) 115 Appendix G. Animal Agriculture Innovations in Urban Areas 116 Appendix H: Plot-Level Correlates of Adoption of Natural Resource Management Practices 117 Appendix I: Summary of Methods Experiments 118 Appendix J. Georeferenced Data on CGIAR-Related Projects 120 Appendix K: Disaggregated Adoption Rates for Less-Populated Regions 121 Appendix L. Correlates of Households by Maize Variety Classification Status 122 “Correct classifiers” versus “Misclassifiers”: p-value_1 in Table 34 125 True positive vs. False positive: p-value 2 in Table 34 125 True negative vs. False negative: p-value 3 in Table 34 126 Robustness of correlations 126 Appendix M: Misclassification Results for Sorghum and Barley Varieties 127 Sorghum 127 Barley 128 iv Abbreviations ACGG African Chicken Genetic Gains AGP Agricultural Growth Program AGSS Agricultural Sample Survey AI artificial insemination ARC Agricultural Research Center AR4D agricultural research for development ARARI Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute ATA Agricultural Transformation Agency BBM broad bed maker BoA Ethiopian Bureau of Agriculture AWM agricultural water management CA conservation agriculture CAPI computer-assisted personal interviewing CASI conservation agriculture–based sustainable intensification CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center CIP International Potato Center CRP CGIAR Research Program CSA Central Statistical Agency DSM Direct Seed Marketing DTMZ drought-tolerant maize EA enumeration area ECX Ethiopian Commodity Exchange EIAR Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research ESE Ethiopian Seed Enterprise ESIP Ethiopian Sorghum Improvement Project ESS Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey ETB Ethiopian birr EQUIP Strengthening Smallholder Livestock Systems for the Future FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCA Federal Cooperative Agency v FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia FEED Feed Enhancement for Ethiopian Development GDP gross domestic product GOE Government of Ethiopia GTP Growth and Transformation Plan HAPP Holland Africa Poultry Partners HOPE Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement ICRAF International Centre for Research in Agroforestry ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture ILCA International Livestock Center for Africa ILRI International Livestock Research Institute ILSSI Innovation Lab for Small-Scale Irrigation IMF International Monetary Fund IPMS Improving