NORDIC FOOD SYSTEMS FOR IMPROVED HEALTH AND SUSTAINABILITY Stockholm Resilience Centre Report March 2019 Nordic food systems for improved health and sustainability Baseline assessment to inform transformation A PARTNER WITH Cover image: Hannah Griffiths-Berggren (top left) and B Ekberg/Azote (top right) Authors and affiliations: Amanda Wood,1 Line J. Gordon,1 Elin Röös,2 Johan O. Karlsson,2 Tiina Häyhä,1, 3 Victoria Bignet,1 Tove Rydenstam,4 Louise Hård af Segerstad,1, 5 Martin Bruckner6 1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 2 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria 4 Mälardalen University, Västerås, Sweden 5 Albaeco, Stockholm, Sweden 6 Institute for Ecological Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria NORDIC FOOD SYSTEMS FOR IMPROVED HEALTH AND SUSTAINABILITY Table of contents Executive Summary . 6 Introduction . 8 Objectives of this report . 10 The EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems . 11 Pathway to healthy and sustainable Nordic food systems . 14 Task 1: Assess Nordic food systems and their impacts on people and the planet . 15 Nordic food consumption . .15 I . Nordic Nutrition Recommendations . 15 II . National food consumption patterns . 15 III . Sourcing Nordic diets . 17 Nordic primary food production . 17 I . Crop and livestock production . .. 17 II . Agricultural employment and agricultural holdings . 18 III . National priorities for Nordic primary food production . 19 IV . Exporting Nordic foods . 20 Food loss and waste in Nordic countries . 20 I . Baseline assessment of food loss and waste in the Nordic region . 20 II . Current and future priorities to reduce food loss and waste . 21 Nordic food system impacts on people . .22 I . Health impacts of Nordic diets . 22 II . Health costs related to poor diets . 23 III . Diet-related and health inequality in the Nordic region . 23 Nordic food system impacts on the planet . 24 I . Environmental impacts of Nordic primary food production . 24 II . Environmental impacts of Nordic food consumption . 25 III . Outsourced environmental impact of Nordic food consumption . 26 Task 2: Define the safe operating space for Nordic Food Systems . 28 Defining healthy and sustainable Nordic food systems . 28 Ensuring the wellbeing of people and the resilience of future food systems . 29 Task 3: Compare current and desired food systems . 31 Comparison of Nordic food consumption to EAT-Lancet dietary targets . 31 Comparison of Nordic food consumption impacts to environmental boundaries . 33 Task 4: Act to transform Nordic food systems . 36 No regrets action . .. 37 Innovative actions . 38 Paradigm shifts . .. 39 Barriers and challenges . 40 I . An integrated, ‘whole food systems’ approach is lacking . 40 II . Analysis of trade-offs among food system goals warrants attention . 40 III . Prevailing forces and current lock-ins will need to be confronted . 41 Conclusions and next steps . 43 I . Initiate action to transform Nordic food systems . 43 II . Build upon the heritage of stakeholder collaboration to initiate a multi-stakeholder scenario development process to define a common food vision for the Nordics . 43 III . Develop strategies to handle the trade-offs of change . 44 IV . Evaluate Nordic food systems in a global context . 44 Acknowledgements . 45 Funding statement . 45 Bibliography . 46 Appendices . 51 3 NORDIC FOOD SYSTEMS FOR IMPROVED HEALTH AND SUSTAINABILITY Figures Figure 1. Global rankings of the Nordic countries using the SDG Index . 8 Figure 2. Food and agriculture and their connection to the 17 SDGs . 9 Figure 3. The Nordic food systems need transformation to reach the SDGs . 11 Figure 4. The Planetary Boundaries . 12 Figure 5. Dietary patterns and the safe operating space for food systems . 13 Figure 6. Four parallel steps in the transformation of Nordic food systems . 14 Figure 7. Arable land use (%) in Nordic countries . 17 Figure 8. Livestock and fish production in Nordic countries . 18 Figure 9. Employment in agriculture as a percentage of total employment . 18 Figure 10. Percentage of agricultural holdings by farm size in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden . 19 Figure 11. Deaths attributable to different dietary risk factors in the Nordic region . 21 Figure 12. Prevalence of overweight/obese adults and children in the Nordic countries . 22 Figure 13. Production and consumption perspectives . 24 Figure 14. Climate impact of average Nordic diets (per-capita) in comparison with the climate impact of average diets of low-, middle- and high-income country populations . 25 Figure 15. Cropland area and blue water used around the world by Nordic food consumption . 27 Figure 16. Comparison of the EAT-Lancet targets to current per-capita food consumption in each Nordic country and to Nordic dietary recommendations . ..