APPENDIX S REASONABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO: OIL AND GAS IN THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS FIELD OFFICE ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARY REASONABLE FORESEEABLE DEVELOPMENT: OIL AND GAS IN THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS FIELD OFFICE (GSFO) ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARY AREA CLUSTERED GAS DEVELOPMENT IN THE GSFO PREPARED BY: FRED CONRATH, GEOLOGIST, AND MARTY O’MARA, PETROLEUM ENGINEER, GLENWOOD SPRINGS FIELD OFFICE, GLENWOOD SPRINGS, COLORADO TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. SUMMARY........................................................................................................................... 1 2. BACKGROUND................................................................................................................... 2 3. DESCRIPTION OF GEOLOGY ........................................................................................ 3 3.1 General Description of Geology.................................................................................. 3 3.2 U.S. Geological Survey Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Potential in the Uinta-Piceance Province (2002).............................................................................. 5 3.3 Summary of Piceance Basin Plays.............................................................................. 6 3.3.1 USGS CONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS PLAYS AND ASSESSMENT UNITS .......................... 7 3.3.2 USGS CONTINUOUS OIL AND GAS PLAYS AND ASSESSMENT UNITS.............................. 9 3.3.3 USGS COALBED NATURAL GAS PLAYS AND ASSESSMENT UNITS ................................ 13 4. PAST AND PRESENT OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION ACTIVITY ........................ 17 4.1 Geophysical and Geochemical Surveys.................................................................... 17 4.2 Exploration Drilling and Success Rates ................................................................... 18 4.3 New Field and Reservoir Discoveries ....................................................................... 19 5. PAST AND PRESENT OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY....................... 19 5.1 Leasing Activity, Unit Descriptions, Communitization Agreements, and Spacing Requirements ......................................................................................................... 19 5.2 Drilling and Completion Statistics, Fields, and Development Plans ..................... 22 5.3 Directional and New Technology Drilling Practices ............................................. 233 5.4 Oil, Gas, and Water Production by Formation....................................................... 25 5.5 Oil and Gas Prices, Finding, and Development Costs ............................................ 27 5.6 Compression and Transmission Costs ..................................................................... 28 5.7 Field Production Equipment and Field Operation Practices................................. 28 5.8 Gas Transportation Pipelines ................................................................................. 299 5.9 Gas Compression Facilities ....................................................................................... 29 5.10 Electrical Powerlines, Generators, and Roads ........................................................ 29 5.11 Conflicts with Other Mineral Development ............................................................ 29 5.12 Gas Storage Fields, Operations, and Facilities........................................................ 30 6. OIL AND GAS OCCURRENCE POTENTIAL.............................................................. 30 6.1 Review of RFD Prepared for Areas Adjacent to the Study Area .......................... 30 6.2 Resources, Plays, and Oil and Gas Assessments ..................................................... 31 6.2.1 EAGLE BASIN ............................................................................................................ 31 6.2.2 USGS ASSESSMENT OF UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES................................................. 31 6.2.3 EPCA OIL AND GAS RESOURCES INVENTORY ............................................................ 32 6.2.4 BLM GLENWOOD SPRINGS ENERGY OFFICE GAS RESOURCES ESTIMATES................. 32 7. OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ........................................................... 36 7.1 RFD Scenarios for Plan Revisions........................................................................... 36 7.2 Proven Reserves, Field Outlines, and Wells by Completion Status....................... 36 7.2.1 RATIONAL FOR SELECTING VALUES FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND CERTAINTY 36 7.2.2 DETERMINATION OF REASONABLENESS ..................................................................... 38 8. RFD BASELINE SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS AND DISCUSSIONS........................ 40 i 8.1 Assumes All Potentially Productive Areas are Open under Standard Lease Terms ................................................................................................................................. 40 8.2 Normalized Decline Curve Analysis for the Piceance Basin (Portion within Glenwood Springs Field Office Jurisdiction)...................................................... 40 8.3 Assumptions Made in Determining the Type and Level of Projected Activity .... 41 8.3.1 INCREASED EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT OF HIGHER OIL AND GAS PRICES.................................................................................................................. 42 8.3.2 INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS ....................................................................... 42 8.3.3 AMOUNT OF SURFACE DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT.............................................................................................. 42 8.3.4 SURFACE AND MINERAL ESTATE OWNERSHIP ............................................................ 43 9. SURFACE DISTURBANCE DUE TO OIL & GAS ACTIVITY ON ALL LANDS......... 44 9.1 Existing and Future Net and Gross Surface Disturbance ...................................... 44 9.2 Seismic Activity Surface Disturbance ...................................................................... 48 9.3 Increases in Compressors and Oil and Gas Activity that Impact Air Quality..... 48 9.4 Produced Water Disposal.......................................................................................... 49 10. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 50 11. APPENDIX.......................................................................................................................... 53 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Geophysical permits involving BLM lands.........................................................................18 Table 2a. Leased and remaining available acres within high potential area of GSFO, including Roan PA ...................................................................................................................20 Table 2b. Leased and available unleased lands within the Roan PA.................................................20 Table 2c. Leased and available unleased lands in high potential area outside Roan PA...................21 Table 3. Oil and gas fields within the GSFO jurisdiction .................................................................24 Table 4. USGS assessment of undiscovered technically recoverable resources in the Piceance Basin............................................................................................................................33 Table 5. EPCA estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable resources for Federal mineral estate lands ...............................................................................................................34 Table 6. BLM natural gas resource estimates for all mineral estates (Federal + private) .................34 Table 7. Development potential for oil and gas, by occurrence potential category ..........................37 Table 8. Number of wells projected to be drilled over the life of the Plan Revision ........................38 Table 9. Surface land ownership/management..................................................................................39 Table 10. Surface land ownership/management................................................................................43 Table 11. Existing surface disturbance, Federal wells ......................................................................45 Table 12. Existing disturbance, non-Federal wells............................................................................46 Table 13. Existing surface disturbance, all wells. .............................................................................46 Table 14. Estimated future surface disturbance, BLM wells ............................................................47 Table 15. Estimated future surface disturbance, all wells .................................................................47 Table 16. Combined existing and future net surface disturbance, BLM wells..................................47 Table 17. Combined existing and future net surface disturbance, all wells ......................................48 Table 18. Estimated future surface disturbance for seismic surveys, all lands .................................48 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Generalized stratigraphic column showing the reservoir rocks that contain significant amounts of oil and gas derived from the five TPSs.....................................................4 Figure 2. Schematic plan view of a TPS, showing a pod of mature source rock, distribution of known petroleum