2014 KENT PROPERTY MARKET THE ANNUAL GUIDE TO INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT IN KENT CONTENTS 1 Welcome 12 Retail performance 38 Main sponsor article 44 Strategic developments 2 Property market 14 Leisure and tourism performance Caxtons 47 Contact details 5 Economic outlook 16 Rural performance 40 Contributory sponsor’s articles 48 Acknowledgements 6 Business park performance 18 Residential performance - DHA Planning 8 Office performance 20 Inward investment - Cripps LLP 10 Industrial and distribution performance 22 Economic development - Lloyds Bank 37 Green infrastructure - RICS Artist’s impression: Conningbrook Lakes, Ashford Brett Group KENT PROPERTY MARKET 2014 WELCOME Welcome to the 23rd Edition of the Kent Property Market industrial rents have improved for the fifth year in a row and Chartered Surveyors, established in 1990, is one of the Report, produced by Kent County Council’s Economic are now outperforming those for the South East and UK. largest independent property practices in the South East Development Division, Caxtons and Locate in Kent. offering a full range of agency, management, professional and The report also looks in detail at Kent’s business parks, rural surveying services across all property sectors. The report reviews property deals and activity throughout property, residential sector performance, inward investment, 2013-14, major initiatives to support economic development tourism and the provision of green infrastructure. Kent County Council’s Economic Development Division is as well as showcasing regeneration projects already responsible for working with public, private and voluntary completed or on-going across the county. The Economic Development section features current and sectors to support Kent’s economic growth by encouraging planned developments across Kent and Medway, focusing and supporting businesses; working closely with specific The Economic Outlook reports that the UK has seen a return particularly on Kent’s growth areas including the Garden City sectors to promote growth and finding new ways of to growth in 2013/14 and this is having a positive impact in Ebbsfleet and the proposed Paramount development on the funding business critical infrastructure and unlocking in Kent. This growth has been supported by the Regional Swanscombe Peninsula, the Lower Thames crossing in North key development sites. Growth Fund programmes, Expansion East Kent, TIGER in Kent and the continuing regeneration of Kent’s coastal towns North Kent and Escalate in West Kent launched in November as well as the successful Enterprise Zone at Discovery Park. Locate in Kent provides a comprehensive, confidential and 2013. The Transport section highlights increased connectivity free business relocation and advisory service for all companies through High Speed One and the significant Government The strategic developments pages feature a comprehensive looking to relocate to, or expand in Kent and Medway. investment in transport schemes across Kent through the list of commercial sites and developments throughout Kent, Local Growth Fund. as well as providing planning information, useful contact The producers of the report would also like to thank the details and location map. following for their sponsorship and contributions to this year’s Though still negative, the average growth in rents in the office report: Cripps, DHA Planning, Lloyds Bank and the Royal sector in Kent has improved to -0.01% from -2.60% in 2012 The full report can be accessed via an interactive website at Institution of Chartered Surveyors. with improving yields as business confidence improves. High www.kentpropertymarket.com. street rents have fallen though and this reflects changes We hope you find the report useful and informative. in consumer behaviour toward on-line shopping. Retail If you would like further information on any of the warehousing rents have fallen slightly but yields continued to developments or projects featured please do not hesitate to harden reflecting investor appetite for UK property. In Kent, contact us. For contact details please see page 47. Caxtons Mark Dance Ron Roser Paul Wookey Cabinet Member for Economic Development Chairman Chief Executive Kent County Council Caxtons Locate in Kent Ltd 1 PROPERTY MARKET UK Property Market Against this backdrop, the UK Property Market continues Kent Property Market to gather strength across both the occupier and investment The UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, Average rent growth in the Kent office sector is still in negative markets. According to the IPD UK Monthly Property up slightly from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2013, according to territory, though only just at -0.01% for 2013 which compares Index, values have now risen by 8.5% over 13 months of the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). favourably with negative growth of -2.60% in 2012. The gap consecutive growth to 31 May 2014, although they still have However, the economy is still smaller than it was in 2008 with has narrowed considerably between rental growth achieved some way to go before reaching the peak levels of 2007. GDP growth 0.6% below the peak despite being one of the in the South East and Kent by some 114bps over 2013 fastest growing in the G7 with a 3.1% increase in the past year. compared to 252bps in 2012. However, it is still negative On the occupier side, tenant demand has now been growing in compared to actual growth seen in the South East of 1.37% each of the last six quarters with no indication of slowing down. And while global credit ratings agencies such as Fitch and and well below the UK average of 3.38%. For the first time As a result, rent expectations are positive. On the investment Standard & Poor’s commend favourable macroeconomic since 2006, office yields in Kent are coming in again recording side, investor appetite is growing at its fastest level on record trends, including strong GDP growth, falling unemployment an improvement of 14bps from 10.63% to 10.49% over the according to the RICS and this is expected to translate into and inflation close to the 2% target, the UK’s deficit is still year as business confidence begins to improve but this is still a further growth. Indeed, Standard Life Investments’ forecasts considered too large to affect an upgrade to the coveted AAA. long way off the 2006 average office yield of 6.02%. Investors for UK Property Total Returns are at 11.5% for All Property In addition, Fitch said that it would not upgrade its rating for still favour London with office yields averaging 6.78% at the end in 2014, with offices showing the biggest return at 16.9%, the UK in particular because of the recent rapid increase in of 2013, though investments with discounted yields outside the industrial at 10.9% and retail 8.6%. According to IPD, investor the house price-to-income ratio, in particular in London, which capital are beginning to be sought after. demand for UK property remained strong in the first quarter of could lead to excessive leverage if supported by unsustainable 2014, with yields compressing across the country. The average lending practices. If unchecked over the longer term, this would Average rental growth on the high street in Kent dropped equivalent yield of 6.9% at the end of May 2014 remained increase macroeconomic risks and could also have a knock-on for the first time in two years reflecting changes in consumer attractive for income-focused investors, compared to the impact on the sovereign’s fiscal position. behaviour away from the High Street to securing bargains pricing of other alternative asset classes. online, at -0.56% doing worse than the UK average for the first time since 2008. Despite that, yields hardened from Investment yields UK property total returns 6.47% in 2012 to 6.24% in 2013 and the county just about kept pace with the UK average dropping just 10bps behind. Equities Gilts Property All property Retail Office Industrial 10 25 Forecast Last year’s retrenchment in rents in retail warehousing across Kent, the South East and the UK as a whole, continued in 8 20 2013 with Kent seeing a drop of 2.10% to -2.13% in 2013, considerably larger than that of the South East region or 6 indeed the UK average which dropped a mere 50bps. Again, 15 despite negative growth in rents, yields continued to harden reflecting increasing investor appetite in UK property. 4 % p.a. 10 % Change a year Industrial rents in Kent continued a five year improvement 2 to move in to positive rental growth of 1%, out-performing the South East and the rest of the UK with 0.6% and 0.73% 5 respectively. Unsurprisingly, industrial yields hardened across 0 the board with Kent showing 8.02% compared to 8.44% 0 in 2012. However, yields moved more sharply in the UK as a whole, shifting 79bps from 8.48% to 7.89% reflecting a Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015 2016 2010 2009 growing demand for industrial investment across the board. Source: Standard Life Investments Source: IPD/Standard Life Investments 2 KENT PROPERTY MARKET 2014 Innovation House, Discovery Park, Sandwich Discovery Park Ltd 3 The Leigh University Technology College, Dartford Hornett Design 4 KENT PROPERTY MARKET 2014 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The national and global outlook Competitiveness indicators In 2013/14, the UK saw a strong return to growth. Output has finally returned to its pre-2008 peak, following a deep slump INDICATOR KENT GB/UK SOURCE DATE and long recovery and the economy is forecast to expand Gross value added (GVA) per head (£) £17,909 £21,937 2012 by 3.1% in 2013/14 - a faster rate than in the Eurozone or the United States.