EAST AFRICA FINACIAL REVIEW OUR SPONSORSHIP PARTNERS: FEBRUARY 2016 PART I: KEY MARKET INDICATORS Burbidge Capital Limited Head Office: Key Africa & Global Equity Indices Performance 4th Flr, Nivina Towers, Westlands Road, London Office: Nairobi, Kenya i4 Albany, Piccadilly Tel: +254 (0) 20 2100 102 London, W1J 0AX Tel: +44 (0) 207 099 1452 Equity Index 2/01/2016 2/01/2016 31/01/2016 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD Uganda Office: [email protected] Suite FC6 NSE 20 (KE) 4,040.75 4,040.75 3,773.17 -6.6% -6.6% 1st Floor, Crown House FTSE NSE Kenya 25 186.30 186.30 173.45 -6.9% -6.9% 4a Kampala Road, P.O . BOX 3331Kampala, Uganda. DSEI (TZ) 2,334.00 2,334.00 2,291.12 -1.8% -1.8% TEL: + 256 (0) 794 476 967 ALSIUG 1,764.00 1,764.00 1,760.00 -0.2% -0.2% www.burbidgecapital.com NGSEINDEX 28,642.25 28,642.25 23,916.15 -16.5% -16.5% EGX 30 7,006.01 7,006.01 5,992.72 -14.5% -14.5% CONTACTS OF THE EDITORIAL TEAM JALSH (SA) 50,693.76 50,693.76 49,141.94 -3.1% -3.1% S&P 500 2,043.94 2,043.94 1,940.24 -5.1% -5.1% FTSE 100 6,242.32 6,242.32 6,083.79 -2.5% -2.5% Edward Burbidge, CFA Chief Executive Officer PICTURE OF THE MONTH [email protected] Burbidge Capital was Transaction Adviser & Placing Agent to the fully subscribed Prime Bank $10m 5 Year Bond. Vimal Parmar, CFA Head of Equities and Debt [email protected] Nicholas Kiprotich Head of IT & Social Media [email protected] Gerald Njugi Senior Analyst - Corporate Finance [email protected] Lello Halake From left to right: Peter Kabi of Prime Bank, Edward Burbidge of Burbidge Capital, Research Analyst Bharat Jani of Prime Bank, Paras Shah of Coulson Harney and Vijay Kantaria of [email protected] Prime Bank during the signing of bond holders’ certificates. ADVISORY SERVICES: A corporate finance firm licensed by the Capital Markets Authority and a Originating and structuring Equity and Debt capital raising, IPOs, M & A transactions, licensed Nominated Advisor by the Nairobi Securities Exchange creating long Strategic Options advisory, PE advisory and Independent Research services. term advisory relationships & solutions across Eastern Africa. NAIROBI KAMPALA DAR –ES SALAAM ADDIS ABABA KIGALI LONDON PART II: MONTHLY COMMENTARY The year is in full swing now with 15 corporate deals with a combined value of c. $200m having been done already. The deals are primarily private M&A and private equity deals, with one or two public markets transactions coming through as markets stabilise a little and another election is done in the region. In private equity 7 investment deals were announced in the information technology (2), renewable energy and insurance sectors in Kenya while Ethiopia recorded two deals in the diary and manufacturing (pharma) sectors with Tanzania recording one deal in the renewable energy sector. In M&A we saw 6 deals in the manufacturing (pharma and consumer goods), real estate, banking and logistics sectors in Kenya while one deal was reported in the insurance sector in Uganda. BC’s deal of the month was Kenya's Prime Bank USD 10 million private placement of 5.5 year USD denominated notes representing 100% subscription rate. The second-tier lender will spend some of the funds on expansion into southern Africa and to grow lending to SMEs. BC acted as the arranger & placing agent for the issue. (see Deals on page 4). In the energy sector, the Tanzanian government announced plans to offer a 49% of its stake in Tanesco through listing on the DSE (after restructuring) to increase local participation in the ownership of public companies. In the mining sector, NSE listed ARM Cement announced that it was still in negotiations with an international institutional investor for a proposed equity investment of USD 125 million in the form of convertible preference shares although the finalisation of the proposed investment is subject to several conditions such as due diligence findings and regulatory approvals. In the oil and gas sector, Zarara a fully-owned subsidiary of Midway Resources International (MRI), announced plans to drill its Lamu block within a year after it secured an extension of its licence from the Kenyan government while TSX-V listed Simba Energy announced the completion of its private placement in which it raised USD 2.1 million for exploration of its northern Kenya block. The NSE 20 Share Index registered a -6.6% drop in January to close at 3773.17 points. Equities turnover stood at USD 126.92 m a decline of -8.5% from December’s USD 138.68 m. The Large Caps dominated trading with KCB, EABL, Safaricom and Equity Bank registering a turnover of USD 35.84 m, USD 23.98 m, USD 18.32 m and USD 17.97m respectively. The bourse registered a net foreign inflow of USD 3.64 m with EABL (USD3.03 m) and CFC Stanbic (USD1.65 m) recording the largest inflow driven by investors taking advantage of the stocks’ current prices trading at near 52 week lows. KCB on the other hand recorded the single largest foreign offload yet again of USD2.16 m (4Q15 outflows USD 16.5m). The top gainers of the month were small caps Eveready (13.0%) and Longhorn Kenya (10.0%) while the top loser was Uchumi (-31.1%). Edward Burbidge, CFA Chief Executive Officer, & BC EA Review Team OTHER KEY MARKET INDICATORS Key Africa & Global Currency Performance Key Events & Press – East Africa Currency 2/01/2015 2/01/2015 31/01/2016 % Ch. m/m % Ch. YTD Ethiopia okays NSE-listed Atlas’ glass factory plans Centum lines up KES 510m funding for start-ups KES / USD 102.20 102.20 103.07 -0.85% -0.85% Apartment rents in Nairobi decline for the first time in TZS / USD 2,155.00 2,155.00 2,202.84 -2.22% -2.22% 15 years UGX / USD 3,367.00 3,367.00 3,471.98 -3.12% -3.12% BPR-BRD Commercial merger to be completed in 6 months, Rwanda ETB / USD 21.01 21.01 21.26 -1.19% -1.19% Tanesco entities to go public after restructuring, Tanzania ZAR / USD 15.46 15.46 15.89 -2.77% -2.77% Prudential invests USD350m in LeapFrog for Life Insurance NGN / USD 199.00 199.00 198.96 0.02% 0.02% Investments EGP / USD 7.83 7.83 7.83 0.00% 0.00% Oil explorer Zarara plans to drill Lamu block within a year GBP/USD 0.68 0.68 0.70 -3.27% -3.27% Canadian firm raises USD 2.1 m for Kenya oil exploration EUR / USD 0.92 0.92 0.92 -0.36% -0.36% Interest Rates Inflation and GDP growth Country/Region Current Base Rate Previous Base Rate Country / Region Projected GDP Growth Projected Inflation (%) Central Bank of Kenya (Kenya) 11.50% 11.50% 2016 2017 2016 2017 Bank of Uganda (Uganda) 17.00% 17.00% Kenya 6.8% 7.0% 5.9% 5.1% Bank of Tanzania (Tanzania) 7.58% 7.58% Uganda 5.5% 5.8% 5.5% 5.9% Tanzania 7.0% 7.0% 5.9% 5.1% South African Reserve Bank (RSA) 6.75% 6.25% Nigeria 4.3% 4.5% 9.7% 8.8% Central Bank of Nigeria (Nigeria) 11.00% 11.00% South Africa 1.3% 2.1% 5.9% 5.6% Central Bank of Egypt (Egypt) 9.25% 8.75% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3% 4.9% 7.3% 6.7% Bank of England (UK) 0.50% 0.50% UK 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% Federal Reserve Bank (USA) 0.25% - 0.5% 0.25% - 0.5% USA 2.8% 2.8% 1.1% 1.8% European Central Bank (EU) 0.05% 0.05% Euro Area 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% Source: World Economic Outlook , IMF Our goal is not to outperform all the time – that’s not possible. We want to outperform over time”- John Paulson The private bank for sailing Proud supporters of leading teams and events worldwide. www.efgsailing.com facebook.com/EFGInternational Photos © Martina Orsini (top); Pierrick Contin; Paul Wyeth; Lloyd Images. Practitioners of the craft of private banking EFG is the marketing name for EFG International and its subsidiaries. EFG International’s global private banking network includes offices in Zurich, Geneva, London, Channel Islands, Luxembourg, Monaco, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Taipei, Miami, Nassau, Grand Cayman, Bogotá and Montevideo. www.efginternational.com EFG - sailing - 2190.5x254mm - bleed +3mm - quadri - back cover - publication: Burbidge Capital March 2015 issue (20.02.2015) PART III: DEAL STATISTICS Total number of deals in East Africa - 2016 YTD1 8 7 7 6 6 s l a 5 e d f 4 o . 3 No 2 1 1 1 0 PE deals M&A deals Corporate bonds Joint ventures Investment type Total number of deals per month in East Africa - 2016 YTD Feb 7 th n o M Jan 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of deals Deal values (USD mn) in East Africa - 2016 YTD3 No. of deals per sector - 2016 YTD2 140 1; 7% 118 2; 14% 4; 29% 120 100 80 65 2; 14% 60 40 3; 22% 20 10 2; 14% - M&A PE Corporate bond Financial services Manufacturing Real estate Energy ICT Agribusiness 1Based on deals as calculated by Burbidge Capital 2The top sectors which recorded the highest number of deals 3Based on deal values disclosed to the public or as estimated by Burbidge Capital Source: Burbidge Capital Research BC EA REVIEW | 4 PART IV: SELECTED DEALS (1/2) Investment Date Buyer Seller Investment size Sector type Country Synopsis 6th January 2016 54 Capital Addis USD 42 million Manufacturing PE Ethiopia London-based PE firm 54 Capital has acquired a 40.7% stake in Pharmaceutical Ethiopia’s pharmaceutical company Addis Pharmacutical Factory Factory PLC PLC (APF) for USD 30 million with an option to invest a further USD 12 million to increase the stake to 49%.