Report on Potential Economic and Fiscal Impacts of LNG Terminals on the Whole Passamaquoddy Bay Prepared for Save Passamaquoddy Bay Prepared by Yellow Wood Associates, Inc. 228 North Main Street St. Albans, Vermont 05478 June 20, 2006 1 Yellow Wood Associates, Inc. About Yellow Wood Associates, Inc. Yellow Wood Associates, Inc. (Yellow Wood) of St. Albans, Vermont has twenty years of experience working with rural communities on issues related to community and economic development and natural resource use. Yellow Wood has gained a strong national reputation for creative problem-solving based on thorough research. The firm’s research capability is enhanced by the way we work with our clients to clarify their goals and develop research questions which will yield information for more effective decision-making and productive action. ©2006 Yellow Wood Associates Inc. All rights reserved. Yellow Wood Associates Inc. holds exclusive rights to this material. 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Table of Contents INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................ 7 What is the region covered by this study and how was it determined?..................................................................................... 7 Shared History of the Region......................................................................................................................................... 9 Economic Base Characteristics....................................................................................................................................... 9 How do the coastal communities of Passamaquoddy Bay think of themselves and their future?............................................. 11 What is a Liquid Natural Gas Import Terminal and How Does It Work? ..................................................................... 15 Potential Locations of Generic LNG Terminal ........................................................................................................... 16 Throughput/Sendout Capacity.................................................................................................................................... 17 Pipeline ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Shipping Route........................................................................................................................................................... 18 LNG Transport by Truck ......................................................................................................................................... 20 Number of Vessel Transits per Year........................................................................................................................... 21 What is the likely secondary industrial development associated with one or more LNG terminals in Passamaquoddy Bay?... 22 ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON EMPLOYMENT........................................................................................................ 22 What is the match between the jobs a generic LNG terminal will provide and the employment capacity of the local population? ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 Employment Conditions.............................................................................................................................................. 22 Existing Employment Patterns ................................................................................................................................... 23 Commuting Patterns ................................................................................................................................................... 24 Economic and Employment Impacts of LNG Terminals ........................................................................................................ 26 Construction Phase ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 Operation Phase ......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Employment at Sea..................................................................................................................................................... 26 LOCAL IMPACT............................................................................................................................................................. 27 Major Facility Components......................................................................................................................................... 27 Industry Characterization ........................................................................................................................................... 28 LNG Terminal Construction...................................................................................................................................... 28 Industrial Building Construction .................................................................................................................... 29 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction................................................................................................... 29 Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction....................................................................................... 30 Survey of State, Regional and Local Firms.................................................................................................... 30 Specialty Trade Contractors ............................................................................................................................ 30 Onshore Terminal Capital Expenditures....................................................................................................... 30 Materials and Equipment................................................................................................................................. 31 What Others Have Said ................................................................................................................................... 33 Industry Characterization ........................................................................................................................................... 36 LNG Terminal Operation ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Multipliers.................................................................................................................................................................. 38 Supply Chains............................................................................................................................................................ 39 Direct and Indirect Effects Estimation......................................................................................................................... 39 Which economic activities that depend on land, air, or marine transportation are likely to be impacted by construction and operation of one or more LNG plants?.............................................................................................................................. 42 Land-Based Transportation: Vehicle Traffic ............................................................................................................... 42 Construction Phase........................................................................................................................................... 42 LNG Transport by Truck................................................................................................................................ 42 Operation Phase-Related Traffic.................................................................................................................... 43 Geographic Range of Impacts....................................................................................................................................... 43 Types of Impacts ......................................................................................................................................................... 43 Traffic Impacts.................................................................................................................................................. 43 Traffic Characteristics ...................................................................................................................................... 43 Level of Service (LOS)................................................................................................................................................ 48 Impacts......................................................................................................................................................................