MORE ON THE BLEND "WALL" HEATHER YOUNGS – EBI UC BERKELEY WHY IS THE BLEND FENCE IMPORTANT? • Blending biofuels can reduce GHG emissions immediately • Cellulosic ethanol is here – high value RINs will follow • Ethanol is political and so is the blend "wall" • Creating an artificial limit on ethanol blending has economic impacts E15 AND E85 ARE IMPORTANT TOOLS IN IN TOOLS E15 E85IMPORTANT ARE AND REACHING THE LCFS 2020LCFS THE REACHING GOAL % GHG Reduction 100 110 80 90 baseline E10/B3 E15/B20 sugarcane/waste,soy biodiesel E15/B20 cellulosic/waste+soy renewable E15 (corn_cane)/B20 (waste_soy)+5%E85 (corn_cane) E15 (corn_cane)/B20 (waste_soy) + 10% E85 corn WHICH VEHICLES CAN USE E15? • 2001 and newer and flex-fuel vehicles (75% of cars, trucks and SUVs on the road meet EPA criteria) • 45% of new vehicles are warranteed for E15 >70% of the Top 20 best-selling cars 2014 models. All Ford, GM and Volkswagen 2014 models Some Honda, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar and Land Rover. 2013 Ford Escape ADOPTION OF E15 PUMPS Cost $1,000-10,000 per filling station – Many newer pumps already built for E15 but some franchises discouraging station owners from offering E85 DISTRIBUTION HAS INCREASED... Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center BUT INSTALLATIONS HAVE STALLED 121,446 gas stations in the U.S. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center Note: Traditional Midwestern states are the five traditional ethanol-producing states of the Midwest: Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Rest of United States includes Alaska, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia. There are 156,000 retail fuel stations in the US FLEX-FUEL VEHICLE MODELS OFFERED U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center. EITHER SIDE OF THE WALL SCARE TACTICS • Small engines • Old engines • Misfueling mitigation option • 4-gallon minimum purchase • Warranty/Certification Mismatch • Car manufacturers warranties • AAA • UL certification of retail equipment http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1v02T9QuSI CONCERNS ABOUT ETHANOL BLENDS >E10 • reduced fuel economy due to the lower energy density of ethanol • increased emissions of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) due to higher catalyst temperatures • corrosion of metals and other materials in engines and fuel systems • degradation of elastomers, polymers, and seals, which can lead to fuel leaks • phase separation of water and ethanol from gasoline. REGARDING EMISSIONS • If the ratio of air to fuel is not adjusted when using ethanol blends, fuel may not completely combust and exhaust temp may rise affecting the catalytic converter, increasing some emissions. • Modern cars have the ability to prevent this imbalance by automatically adjusting the air/fuel ratio depending on the ethanol content of the fuel. • Older vehicles, however, as well as many motorcycles, lawnmowers, and other off-road equipment, do not. 1,3butadiene formaldehyde ☐ evaporative benzene acetaldehyde emissions unchanged PM VEHICLE TESTING (E15 AND E20) • Tailpipe emissions were similar; • Under normal operations, catalyst temperatures in the 13 cars were largely unchanged; • When tested under full-throttle conditions, about half of the cars exhibited slightly increased catalyst temperatures with E15 and E20, compared to traditional gasoline; and, • Based on informal observations during testing, drivability was unchanged. NREL, ORNL Testing 2007 SMALL ENGINES (E15 AND E20) • As ethanol content increased: • Regulated emissions generally stayed within allowed limits, • Engine and exhaust temperatures increased; • Commercial engines, as well as larger non-handheld residential engines in this limited study, exhibited no particular sensitivity to ethanol from a durability perspective; and, • The effect of E15 and E20 on the durability of smaller, less- expensive handheld residential engines was not clear. FLEX FUEL VEHICLE OWNERSHIP UP • Iowa, sales of fuel to flex-fuel vehicle owners jumped 43 percent in the second quarter of 2013 • 15 million flex-fuel vehicles on the road, constituting about 6 percent of the entire vehicle fleet, • A survey by the National Association of Convenience Stores in June found that consumers were largely still unaware of E85: Only 29 percent of 1,183 consumers surveyed were familiar with E85, while only 10 percent said they drove a flex-fuel vehicle (Greenwire, June 12). • Babcock and Pouliot found that only a third of flex-fuel vehicle owners have access to an E85 station within 5 miles of their home. CAFE STANDARDS ARE KEY DESPITE LOWER PRICES, ADVERTISING AFFECTS CHOICES E15 is typically discounted 10-15 ¢/gallon At this station E10 was priced 60 ¢/gallon lower (3.65 ¢/MJ ethanol free, 3.22 ¢/MJ E10) Photo credit: H. Youngs Photo credit: H. Youngs Independently owned station in eastern Florida (March 2014) MISMATCH IN WARRANTIES AND LICENSING FOR DISPENSERS POLICY DRIVERS MATTER POLITICAL PRIORITIES MATTER California Energy Commission Grants 2013 • $18.7 M hydrogen fuel stations • State has 9 that will get updated and will add 7 more • $12 M electric vehicles • grid enhancements for EVs • EV fleets • 2 charging stations ($25 M 2010 6,200 stations) • $2 M CNG stations • 1 station will be tied to a biogas facility receiving an additional $5 M • $1.2 M E85 fueling stations • 19 stations E85 IS GROWTH HAS STALLED INCREASING FLEXIBILITY (MULTIFUEL CARS) • Ethanol blends plus CNG (Brazil) • 2004 GM Chevrolet Astra 2.0 with a "MultiPower" engine and • 2006 Fiat Siena Tetra fuel • Trifuel cars – flexfuel retrofitted • flex-fuel on E-0, E20, E25, E100 or CNG • engineered to switch automatically, depending on the power required by road conditions. • Ethanol blends plus Electric • 2007 Ford produced 20 demonstration Escape Hybrid E85s • 2008 Ford first flexible-fuel (E85) plug-in hybrid SUV • 2010 Lotus CityCarThe CityCar is a plug-in hybrid concept car designed for flex-fuel operation on ethanol, or methanol as well as regular gasoline TAKE AWAYS • Ethanol blends can help mitigate climate change • There are no technical barriers to higher ethanol blends • Physical infrastructure can be adapted to higher ethanol blends in a short time period • Political barriers to higher ethanol blends can be overcome • Pricing of fuels on energy content will be needed • CAFE standards should be adjusted • Warranties and certifications need to be aligned • Misinformation must be countered • We will see even more fuel options in the future .