Volume XI, Issue 21 u November 14, 2013 IN THIS ISSUE: briefs ...........................................................................................................................1 Militancy in the Niger Delta Becoming Increasingly Political – A Worry for 2015 By Mark McNamee ..........................................................................................................4 AQAP Resilience Exposes the Weakness of Yemen’S Security Apparatus Lebanese army was deployed By Ludovico Carlino .......................................................................................................6 Monday after a week of battles in which 17 people were killed (Source Reuters) The DAy After: Iran’S Quiet Taliban Diplomacy Reflects Preparations for A Post-U.S. Afghanistan By Chris Zambelis ...........................................................................................................7 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. The MERGER OF NORTHERN MALI REBEL MOVEMENTS CREATES Terrorism Monitor is designed to be read by policy-makers and POLITICAL DISTANCE FROM ISLAMIST MILITANTS other specialists yet be accessible to the general public. The opinions Andrew McGregor expressed within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily Proclaiming that the move was the only means of securing peace in northern Mali, reflect those of The Jamestown Foundation. the three largest rebel movements in the region announced their merger on November 4. The merger brings together the normally hostile members of one Arab militia, the Unauthorized reproduction Mouvement Arabe de l’Azawad (MAA), and two Tuareg groups, the secular Mouvement or redistribution of this or any National de Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA) and the Haut Conseil pour l’Unité de Jamestown publication is strictly l’Azawad (HCUA), which contains many former members of the al-Qaeda-allied Islamist prohibited by law. Ansar al-Din movement. No name has been chosen for the new movement, which will be effective “within 45 days” after approval had been given by the membership of each group (Soir de Bamako, November 4; al-Jazeera, November 5; AFP, November 5). The rebel movements are looking to present a united front after withdrawing from peace talks with the central government on September 26. Reports of a forthcoming decision to merge, undertaken by delegations of the three groups based at the now-suspended peace talks in the Burkina Faso capital of Ouagadougou, were given a hostile reception by groups of youths in Kidal (Maliactu.net, November 1). For comments or questions about our publications, please send an email to [email protected], or In Bamako, there are fears that jihadists are re-infiltrating the north to recover weapons contact us at: caches buried beneath the sand, as well as concerns about what much of the Malian press regards as duplicity from Paris in dealing with the north – the locally so-called 1111 16th St. NW, Suite #320 “Dutch policy” (in reference to French president François Hollande), under which Paris Washington, DC • 20036 is accused of arranging a separate deal with the MNLA with only a symbolic presence Tel: (202) 483-8888 in Kidal from the Malian national government (L’Annonceur [Bamako], November 7; Fax: (202) 483-8337 Maliactu.net, October 30; Les Échos [Bamako], November 6). During a recent visit to Mali, French Armed Forces chief-of-staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud expressed the Copyright ©2013 ambivalence in France’s relationship with the MNLA rebels by saying that “France is neither pro, nor anti-MNLA.” Admiral Guillaud was reported to have discussed a defense TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TERRORISM MONITOR, VISIT http://www.jamestown.org TerrorismMonitor Volume XI u Issue 21 u November 14, 2013 agreement between the French and Malian militaries of a with ground troops on the trail being assisted by two Rafale type unique to the former French colonies in Africa. Guillaud fighter-jets diverted from another operation in northern also promised to maintain French air support, Special Forces Mali and a pair of helicopters dispatched from the air-strip at units in northern Mali and an operational headquarters at the Tessalit (Le Monde, November 8). Although the kidnappers Bamako-Senou International Airport (Maliactu.net, October escaped, the bodies of the two journalists were discovered, 17; L’Essor [Bamako], October 10). killed either through panic on the part of their abductors or on the orders of al-Targui as pursuers closed in. Nine The Arab MAA was formed in February, 2012 (initially under militants were reported to have been arrested in connection the name Front de Libération Nationale de l’Azawad – FLNA) with the case on November 8 (Reuters, November 8). as a self-defense militia incorporating members of earlier Arab militias and Arab soldiers of the Malian Army who MNLA vice-president Mahamadou Djeri Maiga said the deserted after the fall of Timbuktu to Islamist groups last year movement had been “humiliated” by the abductions and were (for clashes between the MNLA and MAA, see Terrorism further concerned by the attitude of security authorities, who Monitor Brief, June 3). have declined offers of assistance from the MNLA in finding the perpetrators, though the movement is making its own Despite the merger, the MNLA was accused of mounting a enquiries: “We will share our results with those responsible November 8 attack on a Malian military patrol in Egazargane, for the case. We cannot sit idly by and do nothing” (AFP, roughly 86 miles from the town of Menaka, though it is November 4). The deaths of the journalists have been possible the clash was the result of a disagreement that used in some quarters in Bamako to argue that the Tuareg followed a small collision between vehicles belonging to the movements are incapable of administering Kidal or Azawad army and the MNLA, respectively (Maliactu.net, November as autonomous regions (Le Pays [Ouagadougou], November 8; AFP, November 10). 6). A French government spokesman said on November 4 that France would “probably” increase its military presence Efforts to arrive at a settlement in northern Mali have in Mali in response to the slayings (Maliactu.net, November been further complicated by the abduction and murder on 4). November 2 of two French nationals working for Radio France Internationale, Ghislaine Dupont and Claude Verlon. Bamako has backed off from its prior insistence that all arrest Malian intelligence sources have said the kidnapping was the warrants issued for leading Tuareg rebels be carried out prior work of Baye ag Bakabo, an ethnic Tuareg who was a low- to arriving at a settlement for the north. On October 29, the level member of Abd al-Karim al-Targui’s unit of al-Qaeda central government announced it was lifting arrest warrants in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) before he was expelled on issued for Ibrahim ag Muhammad Assaleh of the MNLA, suspicion of stealing money. In this regard, the kidnappings Ahmada ag Bibi and brothers Muhammad and Alghabass ag may have been a failed attempt to compensate al-Targui Intallah of the HCUA, the latter pair being the sons of the through significant ransoms for the two journalists and powerful leader of the Ifoghas Tuareg of Kidal, Intallah ag work his way back into the group, a scenario suggested by Attaher (for Alghabass ag Intallah, see Militant Leadership Bakabo’s relations in Kidal (Journal du Mali, November 9; AP, Monitor, January 2013). The reason given was the measure November 6). Al-Targui is a prime suspect in a number of was needed to “facilitate the pursuit of the process of national high-profile abductions carried out in recent years in northern reconciliation” (AFP, October 29). Ag Bibi and the Intallah Mali. A statement issued by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb brothers are all candidates in the November 24 parliamentary claimed responsibility for the abductions and murders as “a elections. response to crimes committed by France against Malians and the work of African and international forces against the A number of Malian and African human rights organizations Muslims of Azawad” (Sahara Media [Nouakchott], November have opposed lifting the arrest warrants, claiming they would 6). There was speculation from military sources that Baye ag promote a climate of impunity for individuals accused of Bakabo had joined the MNLA in the interests of obscuring serious crimes, such as war crimes, murder, rebellion and his past engagement with AQIM (Maliactu.net, November terrorism. According to the leader of the Malian Association 8). Many Tuareg have displayed a notable fluidity in their of Human Rights, a political solution to the Mali crisis organizational allegiance. “cannot be at the expense of the victims of the crisis or the independence of the judiciary” (L’Essor [Bamako], October The two French nationals were seized outside the home of an 24). MNLA official in Kidal that they had planned to interview. The pursuit of the kidnappers started quickly and in force, Further talks with the rebel movements are scheduled to take 2 TerrorismMonitor Volume XI u Issue 21 u November 14, 2013 place this month, but Bamako’s position has been consistent from the proposed constitution (Middle East Online, - it will not consider autonomy for the north under any September 30; AFP, October 1). circumstances. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has warned of serious consequences if the oil blockades are not removed soon, BERBERS SEIZE LIBYAN OIL TERMINAL TO including impediments to Libya’s ability to cover its budget PRESS DEMAND FOR