Russia, America, and Security in the Asia-Pacific Table of Contents Foreword Vladimir Kurilov, President, FENU and Ed Smith, Director, APCSS iv Introduction Russia, America, and Security in the Asia-Pacific Rouben Azizian and Boris Reznik viii Chapter 1 Russia in the Asia-Pacific Alexander Ignatov 1 Chapter 2 Russia and the Asia-Pacific: Trends, Threats, and Common Threads Rouben Azizian 16 Chapter 3 The United States in the Asia-Pacific: A Leadership Challenge Vladimir Petrovsky 37 Chapter 4 Strategic Resets, Security Ripples, and US Interests in the Asia-Pacific Satu Limaye 50 Chapter 5 China and the Asia-Pacific: A Russian Perspective Alexander Kozhevnikov 77 Chapter 6 China and the Asia-Pacific: A US Perspective Elizabeth Van Wie Davis 93 Chapter 7 Japan and the Asia-Pacific: A Russian Perspective Viacheslav Amirov 112 Chapter 8 Japan: Militarist, Pacifist, or Realist? John Miller 129 i Chapter 9 Korea, Russia, and the 21st-Century Challenges Igor Tolstokulakov 146 Chapter 10 Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Problem: The Status Quo versus the Transformative Approach Steven Kim 162 Chapter 11 Arms Control and Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction Sergey Smirnov 181 Chapter 12 Arms Proliferation and Buildup in the Asia-Pacific: Advanced Conventional Weapons Richard Bitzinger 198 Chapter 13 Regionalism in Northeast Asia and Prospects for Russia–U.S. Cooperation Artyom Lukin 215 Chapter 14 Regional Cooperation and Security: The United States and Russia 231 Jim Rolfe Index 253 ii Dear Readers, This volume is the outcome of collaborative efforts by Russian and American scholars and experts. The publication of this book was made possible by cooperation between Far Eastern National University (FENU, Vladivostok, Russia) and the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS, Honolulu, USA), which jointly conceived and carried out the project Russia, America, and Security in the Asia-Pacific. The volume, which is published in both Russian and English, is the product of meetings and discussions that took place in Vladivostok and Honolulu. Vladivostok is the main base for the Russian Pacific Fleet and Honolulu is home to the US Pacific Command headquarters, but these are also places in which major academic institutions are active. In the present era of globalization and growing interdependence, intellectual, academic, and educational exchanges are increasingly important in contributing to international peace and security. In the eastern part of Russia, FENU is a hub for transnational interactions. Scholars at FENU have been successfully collaborating not only with their counterparts in academic and research institutions but also with members of government agencies in a number of Asia- Pacific countries, such as ministries of education and foreign affairs. At FENU, we have the Inter-regional Institute for Social Studies, which focuses on Asia-Pacific security issues and which serves as a meeting point for people and ideas. Universities and other academic communities play an important role in promoting cooperation and better understanding among the nations of the vast Asia-Pacific region. No doubt, the iv FENU–APCSS joint project will make a significant contribution to Russian–American dialogue on Asia-Pacific security. The participants of the project, whose papers are collected in this volume, are leading specialists on international relations in the Asia-Pacific region and policies of key regional actors. Each topic is represented by two papers—one authored by an American and the other by a Russian expert—which allows the reader to assess and compare Russian and American approaches to major issues of regional politics. After reviewing the chapters of the volume, one can conclude that both Russia and the US are vitally interested in maintaining and reinforcing peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, which creates a solid foundation for their constructive interaction in the area. We at FENU wish to continue to assist in developing such a positive partnership. Vladimir Kurilov FENU President v Dear Readers, Thank you for your interest in this volume, which includes various American and Russian perspectives on key security issues within the Asia-Pacific region. The publication of this unique book is possible thanks to the dedication and motivation of a few members of the faculties and staffs at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) in Honolulu and Far Eastern National University (FENU) in Vladivostok. The demand for a collective work on this topic, produced by American scholars based in the Asia-Pacific region and Russian experts based in Russia’s Far East, has existed for quite some time. Meeting this demand, however, required a group of enthusiasts who were prepared to spend time and effort to make the project a reality. We are indebted to them for this vital contribution. After the breakup of the USSR, it became clear that the market-oriented development of Russia’s eastern regions was impossible without better interaction with countries in the Asia- Pacific. The Americans believe that a democratic and economically ambitious Russia should play an active role in Asian as well as in European affairs and that the US and Russia can only gain from extending their partnership and cooperation to the Asia-Pacific region. Those fundamental beliefs were confirmed, in one way or another, during the conference discussions between the project’s APCSS and FENU participants, and they are explained in the 14 chapters of this book. The implementation of steps toward enhanced security- cooperation goals, however, remains problematic and debatable. Therefore, projects like this one are very useful for helping Asia- Pacific security practitioners and policy makers identify both impediments and opportunities, close gaps, narrow differences of vi opinion, and stimulate better cooperation between our countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The partnership between the APCSS and FENU has been steady and promising, despite differences in the purpose and background of our institutions and the logistical difficulties in arranging mutual exchanges. Those differences and difficulties become secondary when we realize each other’s value in reaching out to interested audiences, providing unique educational experiences, and, most importantly, expanding a regional community of security influence that shares a mutual concern for a secure, predictable, and friendly Asia-Pacific region. E. P. Smith APCSS Director vii Introduction Russia, America, and Security in the Asia-Pacific Rouben Azizian and Boris Reznik* This edited volume is the outcome of a joint project between the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) in Honolulu and Far Eastern National University (FENU) in Vladivostok that was designed to analyze, evaluate, and compare Russian and American perspectives on selected topics of Asia-Pacific security. The participants of the project presented their final papers at a workshop in Honolulu on 2–4 May 2005, which followed a preliminary task- setting joint roundtable that took place in Vladivostok in May 2004. In addition to the APCSS and FENU experts, the project brought together senior Russian and American government representatives, diplomats, and defense officials. The contributions to the project by Victor Gorchakov, Vice-Governor of the Maritime Region (Primorskiy Krai), and John Mark Pommersheim, US Consul General in Vladivostok, were particularly noteworthy and indicative of the importance attached to the project by both the Russian and American sides. This volume includes 14 chapters on seven topics written by seven American and seven Russian experts. The opinions expressed in the chapters are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policies or positions of their organizations and governments. * Rouben Azizian, professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, and Boris Reznik, Vice-President of Far Eastern National University, are the co- coordinators of the project. viii The goal of this introduction is to summarize some of the key findings of the 2005 Honolulu workshop, as expressed either in writings found herein or through verbal exchanges. Participants at the workshop examined 1) the main challenges and opportunities facing Russia and the Russian Far East in regional affairs, 2) Russian and regional perception of the United States’ policy in the Asia-Pacific, 3) the state of Russia’s and the US’s bilateral and multilateral relations in the region, and 4) the major areas of common concern between the US and Russia in the region. The workshop participants also discussed how US–Russian relations in the region could be enhanced for the benefit of regional security and stability. Russia and the Russian Far East consider the Asia-Pacific region to be vital for ensuring the country’s sustained economic development, comprehensive security, and influential foreign policy. There are at least four areas of Russia’s regional involvement in the Asia-Pacific that potentially could significantly advance Russia’s presence in the region: energy supplies, transportation services, arms trade, and partnership between regional and subregional groupings. Russia is taking advantage of Northeast Asia’s growing dependence on oil and gas. Moscow expects to raise crude exports to the Asia-Pacific region tenfold by 2020 as Russia taps oil and gas fields in eastern Siberia and the Far East. Output from the Sakhalin Island shelf off the Pacific coast is expected to increase to as much as 26 million