Document of The World Bank Group Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 130753-LR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK Public Disclosure Authorized FOR THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA FOR THE PERIOD FY19-FY24 Public Disclosure Authorized October 26, 2018 International Development Association The International Finance Corporation The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and Public Disclosure Authorized the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank’s policy on Access to information. The date of the last Country Partnership Strategy (FY13-FY17) was July 1, 2013 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective as of September 30, 2018 Currency Unit = Liberian Dollar (LRD) US$1.00 = LRD155.6021 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS A2A Africa-to-Africa INDS Intended Nationally Determined AfDB African Development Bank Contributions ASA Advisory Services and Analytics EPAG Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young Women BETF Bank-executed Trust Fund ESF Environmental and Social CCSA Cross-cutting Solution Area Framework CDD Community-Driven Development EU European Union CLR Completion and Learning Review EVD Ebola Virus Disease CLSG Côte d’Ivoire-Liberia-Sierra Leone- FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Guinea FCV Fragile, Conflict and Violence CMAW Creating Markets Advisory Window FDA Forestry Development Authority CPF Country Partnership Framework FDI Foreign Direct Investment CPPR Country Portfolio Performance FY Fiscal Year Review CPS Country Partnership Strategy G2B-ESP Getting-to-Best Education Sector Plan DFID UK Department for International GBV Gender-based Violence Development DPO Development Policy Operation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals DRM Domestic resource mobilization GDP Gross Domestic Product DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis GEF Global Environment Facility ECE Early Childhood Education GFF Global Financing Facility EERP Ebola Emergency Response Project GIZ German Society for International Cooperation EITI Extractive Industries Transparency GNI Gross National Income Initiative IFAD International Fund for Agricultural GP Global Practice Development GPE Global Partnership for Education IFMIS Integrated Financial Management HIES Household Income and Expenditure Information System Survey ii HSSP Health Strengthening System PPPs Public-private Partnerships Program PRSDPO Poverty Reduction Support ICT Information and Communication Development Policy Operation Technology PSW Private Sector Window IDA International Development REDD Reduced Emissions from Association Deforestation and Degradation IMF International Monetary Fund REDISSE Regional Disease Surveillance IPF Investment Project Financing Systems Enhancement IPFMRP Integrated Public Financial RETF Recipient-executed Trust Fund Management Reform Project RF Results Framework KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment German government-owned SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic development bank km kilometer SMEs Small and Medium-Size Enterprises kWh Kilowatt hour SOE State-owned enterprise LFI Liberia Forest Initiative SSA Sub-Saharan Africa LFSP Liberia Forest Sector Project STAR-P Smallholder Agriculture Transformation and Agribusiness LISGIS Liberia Institute of Statistics and Revitalization Project Geo-Information Services TA Technical Assistance LRD Liberian Dollar TF Trust Fund LRTF Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund TSA Treasury Single Account MFD Maximizing financing for development UN United Nations MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund Agency UNMIL United Nations Mission in Liberia MSMEs Micro, Small and Medium USAID United States Agency for Enterprises International Development MW Megawatt WAPP West Africa Power Pool NGO Non-governmental organization WARFP West Africa Regional Fishery NPL Non-performing Loans Project ODA Official Development Assistance WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene PAPD Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and WBG World Bank Group Development WDI World Development Indicators PBF Performance-based financing WFP World Food Programme PFM Public Financial Management WHO World Health Organization PforR Program-for-Results WTO World Trade Organization PLR Performance and Learning Review YOP Youth Opportunities Project PPD Public-private Dialogue IDA IFC MIGA Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Sergio Pimenta Keiko Honda Director: Henry G. R. Kerali Aliou Maiga Merli Baroudi Task Team Leader: Larisa Leshchenko Frank Ajilore Moritz Nebe iii FY19-FY24 COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT AGENDA ............................................................................. 3 A. Country Context ............................................................................................................................... 3 B. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook ................................................................................ 7 C. Poverty Incidence, Trends, and Profile ............................................................................................ 9 D. Key Development Challenges ........................................................................................................ 11 III. WORLD BANK GROUP COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY ............................................................... 15 A. The Government’s Medium-term Development Strategy ............................................................ 15 B. Proposed WBG Country Partnership Framework ......................................................................... 16 3.B.1 Lessons from the CPS Completion and Learning Review ...................................................... 16 3.B.2 Overview of the World Bank Group Strategy ........................................................................ 18 3.B.3 Objectives supported by the WBG Program ......................................................................... 21 C. Implementing the FY19-FY24 CPF .................................................................................................. 33 IV. MANAGING RISKS TO THE CPF PROGRAM .......................................................................................... 37 List of Annexes ANNEX 1. Liberia CPF FY19-FY24 Results Matrix ........................................................................................ 40 ANNEX 2. Completion and Learning Review ............................................................................................... 50 ANNEX 3: Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management ...................................... 77 ANNEX 4: Operations Portfolio (IDA and Grants) ....................................................................................... 78 ANNEX 5: Trust Fund Portfolio .................................................................................................................... 79 ANNEX 6: IFC Annual Program and Outstanding Portfolio ......................................................................... 80 ANNEX 7: Fragility and Resilience in Liberia ............................................................................................... 81 ANNEX 8: Summary Findings of the Country Partnership Framework Consultations ................................ 85 ANNEX 9: World Bank Supports Sustainable Forestry in Liberia ................................................................ 87 ANNEX 10: Liberia Donor Mapping ............................................................................................................. 89 ANNEX 11: Map of Liberia ........................................................................................................................... 90 iv List of Figures Figure 1. GDP per Capita, 1960-2016 (US$ in 2011 purchasing-power-parity terms) ................................. 4 Figure 2: Contribution to the Growth of Real Value Added by Economic Sector (percentage points) ........ 5 Figure 3: Poverty Rates by County, 2016 .................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4: National, Rural, and Urban Poverty Rates, 2014-2016 ................................................................ 10 Figure 5: The Top Three Business-Environment Constraints by Firm Size, and the Overall Bribery Incidence, 2017 ........................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 6: Links between PAPD and CPF Pillars and Objectives ................................................................... 19 Figure 7. Links between SCD Priority Areas and CPF Pillars and Objectives ............................................... 20 Figure 8: Liberia GDP by Sector (Millions of US$) at 1992 prices ............................................................... 87 List of Tables Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators, 2014-2023 ...................................................................................... 8 Table 2: Active Portfolio and IDA18 Indicative Lending