RETURNRETURN INDEX GOVERNORATE GOVERNORATE PROFILING: PROFILING RETURN DYNAMICS IN NINEWA GOVERNORATE RETURN DYNAMICS IN NINEWA GOVERNORATE MAY 2021 The Return Index is a tool designed to measure the severity of presents the overview of conditions across the governorate at the conditions in locations of return. The Return Index is based on 16 end of 2020 with a comparison of figures and the severity of living indicators divided into two scales: Scale 1, on livelihoods and basic conditions over the course of 2020 (from 31 December 2019 to 31 services, and Scale 2, centered around social cohesion and safety December 2020). This section also outlines the areas of no return perceptions. A regression model is used to assess the impact of each recorded by the IOM’s Rapid Assessment and Response Teams of the indicators in facilitating or preventing returns. The index ranges (RARTs) and newly assessed locations, the returnee population from 0 (all essential conditions for return are met) to 100 (no essen- living in critical shelters and the displaced population hosted in the tial conditions for return are met). Higher scores denote more severe governorate. The second section devoted to the mass arrivals from living conditions for returnees. The scores of the severity index are camps due to its closures which began in mid-October pointing out grouped into three categories: low, medium and high (which also the living conditions of new arrivals either they returned to villages includes very high). Refer to the report “Methodological Overview” and neighbourhoods of their origin or arrived in new displacement for more details on the methodology. locations. The third section of this report provides an analysis of conditions at the district level and focuses on the main drivers of The Return Index Governorate Profiling provides an analysis of severity across subdistricts and changes that occurred between returns in a specific governorate. This report focuses on the return December 2019 and December 2020. dynamics in Ninewa Governorate. The first section of this report CATEGORIZING CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RETURN As of December 2020,1 the total number of returnees in Ninewa and December 2020, the returnee population in Ninewa increased Governorate stands at 1.89 million individuals out of 4.83 million by 122,820 individuals, which is a lower number of returns compared nationwide, dispersed across eight districts and 926 locations. This is to the previous year, during which 152,184 individuals returned the largest returnee population compared to other governorates, 39 (December 2018 to December 2019). per cent of all returns in Iraq (Figure 1). Between December 2019 Figure 1. Proportion of returnees per governorate Total number of returnees as of December 2020 = 4.83 million NINEWA 39% ANBAR 31% SALAH AL-DIN 15% KIRKUK 7% DIYALA 5% BAGHDAD 2% ERBIL AND DAHUK 1% Data collected: November – December 2020, Master List Round 119 1 Master List Round 119 (November–December 2020) 1 IOM IRAQ RETURN INDEX GOVERNORATE PROFILING: RETURN DYNAMICS IN NINEWA GOVERNORATE RETURNEE POPULATION IN SEVERE CONDITIONS During the Return Index Round 11 collected in November and has returned to locations classified as high severity, followed by 32 December 2020, a total of 907 locations of return were assessed. per cent to medium severity, and 56 per cent to low severity. This Out of these 907 locations assessed, 278 present severe conditions.2 distribution of returnees per severity category is higher than the Ninewa Governorate hosts the largest number of returnees living national average, with 10 per cent living in high severity locations in severe conditions with 235,302 individuals. In relative terms, this (Figure 2). means that around 12 per cent of the returnee population in Ninewa Figure 2. Proportion and numbers of returnees by category of severity in Ninewa Governorate 12% High Severity Medium Severity Low Severity Returnees 235,302 600,288 1,049,442 56% 32% 56+3212A Locations 278 380 249 Over the course of 2020, Ninewa Governorate witnessed a gradual outbreak and ensuing lockdown, when an increased concern about increase in the numbers of returnees living in locations classified as different sources of violence was recorded mainly in Telafar, Mosul high severity (Figure 3). Between December 2019 and December and Al-Ba’aj together with worsening of the employment situation 2020, an increase of 61,578 individuals living in severe or poor and changes in daily public life. However, the numbers went back conditions were recorded. There was a spike in the number of down in the round collected in September–October 2020, when returnees living in severe conditions in the round collected in the lockdown measures were lifted and the employment situation May–June 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and daily public life stabilized. Figure 3. Yearly trend of returnees by category of severity in Ninewa Governorate Round 7 (Dec-19) 173,724 560,496 1,016,676 Round 8 (Feb-20) 164,478 550,320 1,032,126 Round 9 (June-20) 273,036 952,332 580,272 Round 10 (Oct-20) 225,204 608,820 1,021,206 Round 11 (Dec-20) 235,302 600,288 1,049,442 High Medium Low LOCATIONS WITH NO RETURN AND NEWLY ASSESSED LOCATIONS A location is recorded as having had no returns if it witnessed a Ninewa, bringing the total number to 129 locations recorded as displacement of all its pre-2014 population and none of it has of December 2020. The main reasons for these locations having returned yet.3 As of December 2019, DTM identified 138 locations witnessed no returns remains security situation, housing damage and with no returns in Ninewa Governorate, mainly in the districts of lack of services and infrastructure.4 Besides, due to gaining access Hatra (53), Al-Ba’aj (24) and Sinjar (24). Out of these 138 locations, to new areas throughout the year, an additional 201 locations of 58 witnessed returns over the course of 2020 after families received return were assessed in Ninewa Governorate since December 2019. the security clearance; rehabilitated their houses; the security situ- Newly assessed locations were mainly in the districts of Al-Ba’aj (87 ation improved; or due to sentimental reasons. Over the course locations), Mosul (36), Hatra (34) and Sinjar (33). Out of these 201 of 2020, DTM identified another 49 locations with no returns in locations, 112 were classified as high severity. 2 The wording ‘severe or poor conditions’ in this report refer to conditions in the locations classified as high severity. 3 It should be noted that these locations, having no key Informants and no population, are difficult to record and monitor and are generally identified through word-of-mouth. 4 Refer to the report “Areas of No Return” for more details on the locations with no returns. 2 RETURN INDEX GOVERNORATE PROFILING: RETURN DYNAMICS IN NINEWA GOVERNORATE RETURNEE POPULATION IN CRITICAL SHELTERS As of December 2020, 56,670 returnees arrived at shelters in critical returning to unfinished or abandoned buildings and other informal condition in Ninewa, representing 3 per cent of the total returnee shelters. Around 60 per cent (32,556 individuals) of returnees in population in the governorate.5 Specifically, nearly all arrived at critical shelters are concentrated in Mosul district, followed by Sinjar destroyed or heavily damaged pre-conflict residences, with a few (14%), Telafar (13%) and Al-Ba’aj (9%). INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPs) IN NINEWA Between December 2019 and December 2020, Ninewa Governorate IDPs), with the majority (210,966 individuals or 77% of IDPs in the witnessed a decrease in the numbers of IDPs, from 334,788 individ- governorate) living in out-of-camp settings. Mosul and Al-Shikhan uals to 273,056. Of the 61,732 decrease between December 2019 districts host the largest population of IDPs in the governorate, and December 2020: 42,218 were from camps (68%) and 19,514 respectively accounting for 40 per cent (109,282 individuals) and 16 from non-camps (32%). Despite this decrease, Ninewa remains the per cent (43,534 individuals) of IDPs in Ninewa. Some locations in governorate hosting the largest number of IDPs in Iraq (22% of all Mosul and Sinjar currently host more IDPs than returnees (Table 1). Table 1: Number of returnees and IDPs per district in Ninewa Average Severity Total Returnees Total Non-camp Total Camp IDPs Locations with more District (return locations) (individuals) IDPs (individuals) (individuals) IDPs than Returnees Akre n/a 0 28,116 850 n/a Al-Ba’aj High 50,130 6,810 0 0 Al-Hamdaniya Low 168,396 198 27,170 0 Al-Shikhan Low 2,142 20,274 23,260 0 Hatra Medium 48,900 3,138 0 0 Mosul Low 1,050,726 98,472 10,810 11 Sinjar High 111,192 35,922 0 14 Telafar Medium 355,722 9,450 0 0 Tilkaif Low 101,946 8,586 0 1 Ninewa Total 1,889,154 210,966 62,090 26 ARRIVAL FROM CAMPS AND CORRELATION WITH SEVERITY6 ARRIVAL OF IDPs FROM CAMPS TO NON-CAMP SETTINGS IN NINEWA GOVERNORATE Between November and December 2020,7 DTM tracked a total limited ability of IDPs to work outside camp settings or to move of 26,646 individuals (4,441 households) that arrived in non-camp freely between area of origin and area of displacement, pushed settings in Ninewa after departing from camps across the country. returns to their area of origin. Three quarters of those movements were a consequence of the The districts with the highest arrivals from camps are Sinjar and camp closures and consolidation, which began in mid-October 2020. Mosul, both accounting for two thirds of camp arrivals to Ninewa A total of 22,242 individuals (83%) returned to their district of origin, (Figure 4).