WIND SPEED VARIABILITY AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST by Bradford Griffin B.A.Sc., University of British Columbia, 2004 PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT In the School of Resource and Environmental Management © Bradford Griffin, 2010 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2010 All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work may be reproduced, without authorization, under the conditions for Fair Dealing. Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review and news reporting is likely to be in accordance with the law, particularly if cited appropriately. APPROVAL Name: Bradford Griffin Degree: Master of Resource Management Title of Thesis: Wind Speed Variability and Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Areas of the Pacific Northwest Project No.: 494 Examining Committee: Chair: Thomas Rodengen Master of Resource Management ___________________________________________ Karen Kohfeld Senior Supervisor Assistant Professor School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University ___________________________________________ Andrew Cooper Supervisor Associate Professor School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Date Defended/Approved: ___________________________________________ ii ABSTRACT Overall, previous wind speed studies in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) present conflicting results for wind speed trends (both increasing and decreasing) in relation to climate drivers. This study fills a gap in the understanding of PNW wind behaviour by: determining if relationships exist between wind speed distributions, ocean/atmospheric climate indices, and monitoring station-specific attributes; assessing the robustness of relationships for forecasting wind speeds within the study area; and presenting adaptation strategies to wind damage. Analyzing the quantiles of the strongly skewed (non-normal) wind speed distributions reveals different behaviours for average and extreme wind speeds and significantly stronger winds at coastal locations compared with sites further inland. Coast locations appear to follow a nine-year cyclic pattern, while mainland sites have a downward wind speed trend. This finding has important implications for wind research and infrastructure or ecosystem planning in areas such as wind energy feasibility studies and timing management activities. Keywords: Wind speed; Pacific Northwest; Quantiles; Linear mixed-effects model; Variability; Adaptation; Climate change iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thanks to all of the people who have helped and supported me throughout this work and kept me generally sane: • Karen Kohfeld for allowing me to follow my own ideas, providing guidance, and challenging me throughout; • Andy Cooper for being available for my many questions and translating numerous Greek letters into English; • Tommy Rodengen, Liz Sutton, Mungandi Nasitwitwi, Brian Bylhouwer, and Christie Spry for listening as my research slowly evolved and providing invaluable thoughts and conversations; • Caroline Sniatynski for extraordinary emotional support, not hesitating when I talked about going back to school, and listening to hours of ranting about “the model”; • Many other REM students for brilliant conversations and enthusiastic arguments about how to fix the world. Thanks also to the National Science and Engineering Research Council, the Climate, Oceans, and Paleo-Environments research group, Michael Geller Foundation, Planning Institute of British Columbia, and Simon Fraser University for supporting this project. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval.......................................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................................iv Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables................................................................................................................................ viii 1: Introduction................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Study Objectives .....................................................................................................................3 1.2 Background .............................................................................................................................4 1.2.1 Disaster Planning........................................................................................................4 1.2.2 Influential Climate Behaviour in the Pacific Northwest ............................................5 1.2.3 Models of Wind Behaviour in Pacific Northwest ....................................................11 1.2.4 General Circulation Models and Transfer Functions as a Means of Forecasting Wind Speeds.........................................................................................17 2: Methods.....................................................................................................................................19 2.1 Quantiles ...............................................................................................................................21 2.2 Deseasonalizing.....................................................................................................................25 2.3 Hierarchical Clustering .........................................................................................................28 2.4 Linear Mixed-Effects Models ...............................................................................................29 2.4.1 Model Assumptions..................................................................................................30 2.4.2 Model Structure........................................................................................................35 2.4.3 Fitting Procedure......................................................................................................41 2.4.4 Forecasting ...............................................................................................................45 2.5 Adaptation Actions................................................................................................................46 3: Results .......................................................................................................................................47 3.1 Exploration of Wind Speeds..................................................................................................47 3.1.1 Hierarchical Clustering ............................................................................................47 3.1.2 Data Trends ..............................................................................................................50 3.2 Linear Mixed-Effects Models ...............................................................................................52 3.2.1 50th Quantile.............................................................................................................53 3.2.2 75th Quantile.............................................................................................................56 3.2.3 95th Quantile.............................................................................................................58 3.3 Forecasts................................................................................................................................62 3.4 Adaptation Actions................................................................................................................64 4: Discussion..................................................................................................................................67 4.1 Changing Wind Speed Trends and Variability......................................................................68 v 4.2 Application of Linear Mixed-Effects Model.........................................................................73 4.3 Model Forecasting Ability ....................................................................................................74 4.4 Sensitivity Analyses ..............................................................................................................79 4.5 Analysis Limitations and Recommendations for Future Research .......................................80 5: Conclusions...............................................................................................................................84 5.1 Difference in Coast and Mainland Behaviour.......................................................................85 5.2 Future Adaptation Capacity...................................................................................................86 Appendices ....................................................................................................................................88 Appendix A: Pacific Ocean Climate Index Time