Tracing climate impacts using participatory systems mapping: informing adaptation for a marine food system in the Tla’amin First Nation by Patricia T. Angkiriwang BSc Hons., The University of British Columbia, 2017 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Zoology) The University of British Columbia (Vancouver) August 2020 © Patricia T. Angkiriwang, 2020 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the thesis entitled: Tracing climate impacts using participatory systems mapping: informing adaptation for a marine food system in the Tla’amin First Nation submitted by Patricia T. Angkiriwang in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the de- gree of Master of Science. Examining Committee: William Cheung, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries Supervisor Daniel Pauly, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries Supervisory Committee Member Terre Satterfield, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability Supervisory Committee Member Sarah Otto, Department of Zoology Departmental Examiner ii Abstract Climate change is altering the physical and biogeochemical properties of the ocean, with im- plications for the biogeography, phenology, biodiversity and ecosystem functions of marine organisms, as well as for the human societies that depend upon them. Shifting species dis- tributions, among various biological responses to climate change, may exacerbate ongoing challenges to food security, nutritional health and culture for many coastal indigenous First Nation communities. Developing appropriate, nuanced, and context-specific adaptation responses to climate change, however, requires an understanding of how climate-driven ecosystem changes act and interact with other non-climatic factors. Effective adaptation strategies also need to be developed in partnership with community members to identify people’s values, needs, and knowledge of local system dynamics and challenges. Through a collaborative effort with the Tla’amin (ɬəʔamɛn) Nation, this research aims to support the development of adaptation strategies by identifying the perceived mechanisms or path- ways through which climate-driven ecosystem changes could affect local seafood access and consumption, and by identifying how these climate effects interact with other factors affecting local seafood availability and access to harvest. This thesis applied a participatory systems mapping approach to co-develop a conceptual model of the key dynamics in the Tla’amin traditional marine food system with Tla’amin Elders, legislators, managers, and community members with expertise in fisheries, traditional food harvest, resource man- agement, and health. I used this model to trace climate stressor-impact pathways and con- iii struct a logic-based influence diagram (a modified “fuzzy” cognitive map (FCM)) focusing on the factors affecting food fish harvest. Climate change impacts on the consumption of traditional foods were perceived via both direct and indirect pathways, with reinforcing feedback loops brought about by reduced exposure and experience to traditional foods. Cli- mate effects on local abundance, availability, and safety of fish and shellfish, accompanied by potential consequences for harvest restrictions, were found to compound onto existing constraints to physical and temporal access to the harvest of traditional marine foods. Un- derstanding these multifaceted local climate impacts may help inform future identification and implementation of adaptation strategies for traditional seafood harvest in the face of climate change. iv Lay Summary For many First Nations located in what is now known as British Columbia, including the Tla’amin (ɬəʔamɛn) Nation, fish and shellfish make up the bulk of traditional foods, impor- tant not only nutritionally but also socially, culturally, and economically (Chan et al. 2011; Harris 2001; Paul et al. 2014; Satterfield et al. 2017). However, the availability and access of these marine foods have been declining, and overall negative impacts expected from climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems may further worsen ongoing challenges (Weatherdon et al. 2016). This research, co-created with the knowledge, expertise, wisdom, and guidance of many Tla’amin Elders, legislators, managers, and community members, takes a look at how dif- ferent structural challenges in the harvest and consumption of fish and shellfish can be interconnected, and situates the issues of climate change within the current challenges of marine food harvest and consumption. v Preface The bulk of this research took place on Tla’amin (ɬəʔamɛn) traditional territory, and was written on unceded and traditional lands of the Musqueam (xwməθkwəy̓əm), Squamish (sḵwx̱wú7mesh), and Tsleil Waututh (səlilwətaɁɬ̓ ) peoples. This project is a collaboration with the Tla’amin Nation, and though the text and graphics presented in this dissertation are my own, this research has been shaped by the knowledge of many Tla’amin Elders, legislators, managers, and community members. I was responsible for the coordination, planning and direction of workshops conducted through this project, the construction of the resulting conceptual models, and the formula- tion and implementation of all subsequent analyses. In arranging workshop logistics, I re- ceived immense guidance from Lori Wilson and Sachiko Ouchi, as well as Drew Blaney, Lee George, and many more. Tiff-Annie Kenny, Terre Satterfield, Colette Wabnitz, and William Cheung provided insightful feedback in the structure and formulation of questions in prepa- ration for the main systems mapping workshop. Contributors in the systems mapping por- tion of this research included, but were not limited to: Cathy Galligos Doreen Hopkins Gordon Williams Clint Williams Drew Blaney Larry Louie Craig Galligos Eugene Louie Lee George Denise Smith Gilbert Francis Leonard Harry vi Lori Wilson Phil George Scott Galligos Nathan Jantz Rose Adams Simon George Pat Galligos Roy Francis This research was conducted in tandem with Sachiko Ouchi’s Master’s project (Simon Fraser University), a separate but closely related project with Tla’amin Nation partners on food fisheries portfolios. Both these projects form part of the initial steps toward an upcoming 4-year initiative entitled: “Developing Adaptation Strategies For Healthy Fisheries and Food Security For First Nations In BC Under Climate Change” with several universities, several First Nations, and the First Nations Health Authority. This project and associated methods were approved by the University of British Columbia’s Behavioural Research Ethics Board (certificate number H18-01272). vii Contents Abstract . iii Lay Summary . v Preface . vi Table of Contents . viii List of Tables . xi List of Figures . xii Acknowledgements . xiii Dedication . xv 1. Introduction . 1 1.1. Context . 1 Tla’amin (ɬəʔamɛn) Nation . 1 The importance of fish and shellfish . 1 A colonial context . 4 Steps to sovereignty and future planning . 6 Current status of fisheries resources . 7 Implications of climate change . 8 Building understanding for adaptation . 11 1.2. Research framework . 14 A systems science approach . 14 What is systems science? . 15 viii A link to Indigenous and holistic ways of thinking . 16 Models to synthesize understanding . 17 Participatory modelling . 19 Constructing influence diagrams . 22 Influence diagram simulation techniques . 23 Basics of a “fuzzy” cognitive map . 29 Research structure . 32 2. Systems mapping for understanding climate impacts in a marine food system . 33 2.1. Introduction . 33 2.2. Methods . 36 Part One: The marine food system and climate-impact pathways . 37 Main workshop . 37 Workshop structure . 39 Constructing the systems map . 40 Post-workshop analysis . 42 Part Two: Situating climate impacts on traditional harvest . 44 Follow-up workshop . 44 Workshop structure . 45 Constructing a logic-based influence diagram . 46 2.3. Results . 47 Part One: The marine food system and climate-impact pathways . 47 Key elements of the Tla’amin marine food system . 47 Conceptual systems map . 49 Climate-impact pathways . 62 Part Two: Situating climate impacts on traditional harvest . 64 Factors influencing seafood harvest . 64 ix Types of influencing interactions . 65 Climate impacts on access . 68 2.4. Discussion . 70 Food fisheries under climate change . 70 Climate impacts on harvest access . 74 Representing factors influencing seafood harvest . 75 Caveats and opportunities for future research . 77 2.5. Conclusion . 82 3. Concluding remarks . 84 3.1. Advantages and remarks . 86 Systems and forms of knowing . 86 Auxiliary benefits of participation . 87 Learnings from the research process . 88 3.2. Limitations of this research . 90 Limitations of a systems approach . 90 3.3. Opportunities . 93 Informing adaptation . 93 References . 96 Appendices . 125 A. Framing of systems mapping activities . 125 B. Qualitative coding results . 127 C. From broad systems map to logic-based directed graph . 132 D. Results from Activity W2.3 . 139 x List of Tables 1.1. Overview of semi-quantitative modelling techniques . ..