Ministry of Regional Development, Building, Housing and Public Works (MAHTP) Government of the Republic of Madagascar The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report Main Text: Volume 1 October 2019 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. EI JR 19-102 Ministry of Regional Development, Building, Housing and Public Works (MAHTP) Government of the Republic of Madagascar The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report Main Text: Volume 1 October 2019 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. Currency Exchange Rates EUR 1.00 = JPY 127.145 EUR 1.00 = MGA 3,989.95 USD 1.00 = JPY 111.126 USD 1.00 = MGA 3,489.153 MGA 1.00 = JPY 0.0319 Average during the period between June 2018 and June 2019 The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report Main Text: Volume 1 Table of Contents Page Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................ i List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... xii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ xx List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ xxvii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ -1- Part I Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Objectives and Outputs of the Project ................................................................................. 1-2 1.3 Study Areas and Planning Areas of the Project .................................................................. 1-2 1.3.1 Study Areas for the Project .................................................................................................... 1-2 1.3.2 Planning Areas for the Project ............................................................................................... 1-4 1.4 Project Organisation .............................................................................................................. 1-4 1.4.1 Project Management Structure............................................................................................... 1-4 1.4.2 Project Implementation Body ................................................................................................ 1-8 1.5 Organisation of the Final Report .......................................................................................... 1-9 Part II National Development and Overall TaToM Area Development Chapter 2 Madagascar: Future Vision for National Development 2.1 National Future Vision for Madagascar .............................................................................. 2-1 2.1.1 Manifesto of the Newly Elected President ............................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 National Development Plan (PND) 2015 - 2019 ................................................................... 2-1 2.1.3 Vision 2030 of Madagascar ................................................................................................... 2-2 2.2 National Development Trend of Madagascar...................................................................... 2-4 2.2.1 Population of Madagascar ..................................................................................................... 2-4 i The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report 2.2.2 National Economy ................................................................................................................. 2-4 2.2.3 Human Development of Madagascar .................................................................................. 2-11 2.2.4 Investment ........................................................................................................................... 2-12 2.2.5 Poverty ................................................................................................................................. 2-15 2.3 National Development Potential of Madagascar ............................................................... 2-17 2.3.1 SWOT Analysis of Madagascar .......................................................................................... 2-17 2.3.2 National Development Potential of Madagascar ................................................................. 2-18 2.3.3 Development Potential Industries in Madagascar ................................................................ 2-25 Chapter 3 TaToM Area: Future Vision, Potentials, Growth Scenarios and Socio-Economic Frameworks for Overall TaToM Development 3.1 Present Situation of Overall TaToM Area ........................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Areas Covered by Overall TaToM Area ................................................................................ 3-1 3.1.2 Socio-economy of Overall TaToM Area ............................................................................... 3-1 3.1.3 Geological Conditions of Overall TaToM Area .................................................................... 3-4 3.2 Regional Spatial Frameworks for the Overall TaToM Area ............................................. 3-4 3.2.1 The Overall TaToM Area and Growth Areas of National Land Use Plan (SNAT) ............... 3-4 3.2.2 Overall TaToM Area and Growth Poles of Vision 2030 ....................................................... 3-6 3.2.3 Regional Land Use Plan for Alaotra-Mangoro Region ......................................................... 3-7 3.2.4 Regional Development Plan for Analamanga Region ........................................................... 3-7 3.2.5 Regional Development Plan for Atsinanana Region ............................................................. 3-8 3.3 Development Potentials and Constraints for Economic Sectors of the Overall TaToM Area ........................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.1 SWOT Analyses of Antananarivo Agglomeration, Toamasina Agglomeration and TaToM Economic Axis ......................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.2 General Directions of Development of Economic Sectors in the Overall TaToM Area ..... 3-11 3.4 Future Vision for the Overall TaToM Area ...................................................................... 3-14 3.4.1 Expected Roles of the Overall TaToM Area ....................................................................... 3-14 3.4.2 Future Vision for the Overall TaToM Area ......................................................................... 3-14 3.5 Growth Scenarios for the Overall TaToM Area ............................................................... 3-15 3.5.1 Factors for Creating Alternative Growth Scenarios for the Overall TaToM Area .............. 3-15 3.5.2 Alternative Growth Scenarios for the Overall TaToM Area ............................................... 3-17 3.5.3 Selected Growth Scenario for the Overall TaToM Area ..................................................... 3-21 3.6 Future Socio-Economic Frameworks for the Overall TaToM Area ............................... 3-22 3.6.1 Future Population Framework for the Overall TaToM Area ............................................... 3-22 3.6.2 Future Economic Framework for the Overall TaToM Area ................................................ 3-24 3.7 National Development Budget of Madagascar and Necessary Budget for TaToM .................................................................................................................................. 3-27 3.7.1 Madagascar's Development Budget ..................................................................................... 3-27 3.7.2 Necessary Budget for Implementing TaToM ...................................................................... 3-28 ii The Project on Master Plan Formulation for Economic Axis of TaToM (Antananarivo-Toamasina, Madagasikara) Final Report Part III Revised PUDi for Antananarivo Agglomeration Chapter 4 Present Situation and Challenges on Urban Development and Housing Development in Antananarivo Agglomeration 4.1 Present Situation on Urban Development in Antananarivo Agglomeration .................... 4-1 4.1.1 Spatial Analysis of Present Urbanization of Antananarivo Agglomeration .......................... 4-1 4.1.2 Characteristics and Problems on Urban Development of Antananarivo Agglomeration ....................................................................................................................... 4-8 4.2 Present Situation