Copyright by Paula Valeria Muñoz Chirinos 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Paula Valeria Muñoz Chirinos Certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: Campaign Clientelism in Peru: An Informational Theory Committee: Kurt G. Weyland, Co-Supervisor Raúl L. Madrid, Co-Supervisor Javier Auyero Henry Dietz Kenneth F. Greene Wendy Hunter Campaign Clientelism in Peru: An Informational Theory by Paula Valeria Muñoz Chirinos, B.A.; M.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin May, 2013 Dedication Para mi mami, Edda, quien, entre muchas otras cosas, me enseñó a ser perseverante. Para Edu, mi compañero de aventuras. Acknowledgements During the years that took me to develop this project I have incurred in numerous intellectual and personal debts. I am extremely grateful for the generous intellectual support of Raúl Madrid and Kurt Weyland, of my co-supervisors. Since I started working on my dissertation proposal, Raúl and Kurt have been great at providing me detailed, prompt, and constant feedback. They accompanied me through the “collapse” of my original project, the uncertainty of a long transitional phase, until the birth and maturation of this final academic product. Through all the stages of this intellectual process, my supervisors were extremely supportive and pushed me to keep working and improving my work. Moreover, Raúl and Kurt worked very closely while supervising my project. The three of us met innumerable times to talk about my progress, doubts, and challenges. During these meetings and through numerous email exchanges, my supervisors made sure they were on the same track while guiding me. Thank you both for your mentorship. I could not have asked for more accessible and engaged advisors. I would also like to thank the other members of my dissertation committee. Henry Dietz, Wendy Hunter, Javier Auyero, and Ken Greene also contributed to the development of this project. Henry was my advisor when I began my doctoral studies. His interest and dedication to Peruvian politics have always been moving for me. Our brown-bag meetings throughout these years were always encouraging. I also learned a lot during Wendy’s Latin American Politics and Ken’s political parties graduate seminars. I am particularly grateful with Javier with whom I met several times when I was trying to re-frame my project. His experience studying poor people’s politics in Latin America and his intellectual generosity were extremely helpful to clarify my ideas. This help came when I needed it the most. Henry, Wendy, Javier, and Ken also gave me valuable v feedback for a dissertation-related article and chapters of my dissertation. In addition, the comments, criticisms, and suggestions they provided during my dissertation defense were exceptional. As a college and good friend of mine used to tell me, I had un comité de lujo (a “luxury” committee). Many other persons at the Department of Government of The University of Texas at Austin gave me invaluable support. Among the many professors that contributed to my academic advance I am indebted to Catherine Boone. Her Political Economy seminar and Research Colloquium were very important for my academic education. Different staff members were also very helpful through the years I spent at the Department of Government. In particular, Annette Carlile, our Graduate Coordination, was always kind, patient, and supportive. She helped me with the university procedures and saved me from making awful errors more than once. Annette also invited me many chocolates that helped me keep going during the sometimes tedious hours of dissertation writing... More generally, this dissertation was possible thanks to grants and fellowships provided by the Department of Government and the Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies at The University of Texas at Austin. During these years I also learned from my peers and friends. I thank the participants of the Latin American Faculty-Student Group for their constructive comments and criticisms of my work. There are no words to express how much I owe to two very good friends and generous colleges: Austin Hart (UT-Austin) and Ezequiel González de Ocanto (Notre Dame). Austin and Ezequiel encouraged me and gave me insightful suggestions to improve my project during the most challenging stages of the research process. Daniel Nogueira-Budny read some of my chapters and accompanied me very closely during the last (crazy) stage of writing. Ilana Lifshitz accompanied me as well. We met always throughout the semester during office hours and, more importantly, vi for food and drinks. Other colleagues and friends also made grad school and life more enjoyable: Laura Field, Erin Bird, Luis Camacho, Mary Slosar, Manuel Balán, Rodrigo Nunes, Sandra Botero, Rachel Sternfeld, and Kate Bersch. Several other friends accompanied me in Austin as well: Carla, Solange, Lissette and Huáscar, Nora, María José, Isabel, Omar and Belén, Nino and Paola, Pucho and Kris, among many others. Bo and Ambjörn, my friends and roommates this semester, made it easier to get through this last and stressful stage in Austin. While conducting fieldwork many people opened several doors for me. Many politicians, experts, journalists, and citizens generously shared their opinions and experience with me. This dissertation would be unthinkable without them. I cannot go without particularly thanking Sergio Sullca, Marco Zeisser, Roberto Romero, and Julio Carrión (Cusco), and Luis Loja, Elizabeth Rodríguez, and Rodrigo Urbina (Piura) for their help. My work in Piura would have been difficult without the generosity and kindness of Ceci Trelles and Raúl Aragón, my host family. I got to know the “Aragones” circumstantially. But they became a real family to me and made my stay in Piura unforgettable. I will always remember my conversations with Fernando, who left us before I got back to Peru. Besides of those I interviewed in Peru, I would like to recognize the Instituto de Opinión Pública – Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú for their genuine interest in supporting academic research in Peru, in particular my colleagues David Sulmont and Vania Martínez. The IOP included several items in their 2012 national survey without which it would have been unmanageable to finish this research project. My friend and colleague Arturo Maldonado (Vanderbilt) attended the IOP’s meetings and couched me with the design and analysis of the survey experiment. I am also indebted with Steve Levitsky who discussed with me several dissertation-related products during his stay in Peru. vii Finally, I cannot finish without thanking my closest family and friends for their emotional support during these years. My mom was super strong during the time we were apart, which coincided with the relapse of her cancer. Despite this, she never stopped encouraging me about finishing my doctoral studies. She even learned to use Skype so we managed to stay close despite the physical distance. Mirella and Hilda, my mom’s friends, as well as Inés accompanied me each in their own way during the hardest time of my life. My parents in law, Leti and Yayo, have been extremely supportive and encouraging during all these years. Leti and Yayo also welcomed and took care of our “babies”, Lucas and more recently Kusi, when we were not able to do so. In spite of being abroad, my friendship with Pepa, Lorena, and Ale, my “sisters”, only grew stronger during these years. Felipe, Gabriela, Alberto, and Miné kept always in touch from Montreal, as did my father, Jorge, from Chile. Ada, Matt, Noah and Sofía Brewster made my final stay in Austin nicer. Finally, and most importantly, I want to thank Eduardo Dargent, my loving husband, mate, and college. Eduardo has helped me in so many ways during these years that this dissertation would just have been impossible without him. For one, he has been the “hidden” advisor of this academic project: Eduardo has been patient enough for (endlessly) listening to me while trying to clarify my ideas and has given me extensive comments for tons of dissertation- related documents. Besides his intellectual generosity, Edu’s enthusiasm for life, strength, love, and care helped me go through the many hardships that coincided with my doctoral studies. And the illusion of reuniting with him soon pushed me to finish the writing process. viii Campaign Clientelism in Peru: An Informational Theory Paula Valeria Muñoz Chirinos, PhD The University of Texas at Austin, 2013 Co-Supervisors: Raúl L. Madrid and Kurt G. Weyland Abstract: While clientelism has been intensively studied in comparative politics from very different theoretical perspectives and angles, scholars typically emphasize the importance of organized networks and long-term relations for sustaining electoral clientelism. However, electoral clientelism continues to be widespread in many countries despite the absence of organized parties or electoral machines. In order to account for this puzzle, I propose an informational approach that stresses the indirect effects that investments in electoral clientelism have on vote intentions. By distributing minor consumer goods, politicians buy the participation of poor voters at rallies and different sorts of campaign events. I argue that this particular subtype of electoral clientelism— “campaign clientelism”— helps politicians improvise political organizations, influence indifferent clients, and signal their electoral viability to strategic actors. Thus, by influencing competition and the dynamics of the race, campaign clientelism shapes vote choices and electoral outcomes. Campaign clientelism affects vote choices through two causal mechanisms. First, this subtype of electoral clientelism can help establish candidates’ electoral viability, especially where alternative signals provided by well-organized parties are weak. By turning out large numbers of people at rallies, candidates establish and demonstrate their ix electoral prospects to the media, donors, rent-seeking activists, and voters.