POLICY POLICY PAPERPAPER European issues n°545 The State of the Transatlantic 04th February 2020 Relationship in the Trump Era Anna DIMITROVA On February 3rd, the Iowa caucus opens the U.S. electoral year, in which a series of electoral dates will follow in close succession until November 3 when Americans will be called to the polls to choose the 46th president of the United States. On the eve of this electoral meeting, but also of the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16), we look back at the Europe-U.S. relationship in the era of Donald Trump. *** regarding the impact of Trump’s presidency on the transatlantic relationship. The question “Has the For seven decades the transatlantic partnership transatlantic alliance been irreparably damaged?” has been the bedrock of the post-World War II did not generate any consensus. Yet, the majority of international order grounded in the United States and respondents agreed that serious damage has been Europe’s shared commitment to freedom, democracy, done to the transatlantic relationship, particularly in human rights, rule of law and open trade. Anchored in terms of security and trade, though not all of them a network of transatlantic-centered institutions such defined it as “irreparable”. This damage has been as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the caused, according to the experts’, by Trump’s careless European Community and later the European Union, and destructive rhetoric, as well as by his unilateralist as well as international organizations such as the IMF and controversial actions related, among others, or the WTO, the transatlantic relationship was built to to NATO, the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear provide the normative grounds on which the liberal deal, and the Paris climate agreement, and Trump’s international order would rest. import steel and aluminium tariffs. Indeed, the list of Trump’s foreign policy tweets, speeches and decisions Despite numerous ups and downs in the past over that raised Europeans’ concern about the future of issues related to international security, trade transatlantic relations is quite long. Nonetheless, it is disputes and diplomatic tensions, this values-based worth recalling at least three of the main issues of transatlantic relationship has proved resilient to discord between the Trump administration and the EU crisis. However, this resilience has been seriously member states: Brexit, NATO and trade. put to the test by President Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy. This approach places THE “SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP” emphasis on the pursuit of US national interests as the ultimate goal regardless of international norms One of the first frictions between Washington and and political traditions, thus breaking radically with Brussels appeared as early as 2016, when then- Barack Obama’s more inclusive vision of “renewing presidential candidate Donald Trump hailed the results American leadership” in a “multi-partner world”[1]. of the Brexit referendum as a “great victory” saying By contrast, unlike his predecessors, Trump rejects that the British voters had exercised their “sacred [1] Barack Obama, “Renewing the very foundations of the liberal international right” to regain their independence and reassert American Leadership”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007. order as evidenced by his contempt for multilateral control over their country, borders and economy[3]. organizations, his deep mistrust in US traditional It was no surprise that former British Prime Minister [2] “Has the Transatlantic Alliance Been Irreparably allies, and his unilateralist and transactional view of Theresa May was the first foreign leader to meet the Damaged? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts”, Foreign Affairs, 16 security and trade alliances. new occupant of the White House, only eight days after October 2018. his inauguration on 28 January 2017. To shore up this [3] Ewen MacAskill, “Donald In October 2018, Foreign Affairs magazine revealed “special relationship”, Trump promised that the US Trump arrives in UK and hails the results of a survey[2] undertaken with a broad would negotiate a free trade deal with the UK as soon Brexit vote as ‘great victory’”, The Guardian, 24 June, 2016. pool of experts in the field of transatlantic relations as the country left the EU. Even though House Speaker FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°545 / 04TH FEBRUARY 2020 The State of the Transatlantic Relationship in the Trump Era Nancy Pelosi asserted in April 2019 that Congress would budget to a total of up to 13 billion €. In a document block any trade deal with Britain should Brexit weaken devoted to the future of European defense in June the Northern Ireland Peace agreement[4], some US 2017, the European Commission stated that “more 2 officials, such as former national security adviser John has been achieved over the last two years than in the Bolton, declared that America would enthusiastically last 60”. As recently as 20 January 2020, European back a no-deal Brexit. Added to this is also Bolton’s countries announced their "political support" for the statement that he and president Trump “were leavers creation of a European maritime surveillance mission before there were leavers”[5] in the sense that the in the Strait of Hormuz (EMASOH). Brexit vote paved the way of Donald Trump’s election as it set the stage for a global anti-establishment and TRUMP’S NATO BASHING AND ITS EFFECTS ON populist revolt, thus giving legitimacy to Trump’s call THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE to give sovereignty back to the people and “Make America Great Again”. This also reflects the current US President Trump has gone further than any of his administration’s Eurosceptic attitude, which is at odds predecessors in his criticism of NATO. Not only did he with the traditional US foreign policy strategy with call the alliance “obsolete” during the US presidential regard to Europe, while previous American presidents campaign, because it was not doing enough to fight have encouraged the EU integration and enlargement terrorism, but once in office he displayed his readiness process based on the conviction that a peaceful, stable to make conditional the US commitment to the mutual and prosperous Europe is of vital importance for defense pledge in Article 5. That would depend, Trump promoting the US interests and security. In this light, stressed, on whether the European allies have “fulfilled some observers argue that Trump’s attitude vis-à-vis their [financial] obligations to us”[7], specifically the EU can be interpreted as part of his “grand plan” whether they have met NATO’s 2 percent of GDP that aims to unravel the Union, perceived by some hard- target for defense spending. While the issue of fair line conservatives as a competing ideological project burden-sharing between the US and its Europeans that could turn Europe into a serious rival for Trump’s allies is as old as the Alliance itself[8], no other US America[6]. On the other hand, some analysts contend President before Trump has gone as far as to threaten [4] Suzanne Lynch, “No US-UK trade deal if Brexit threatens that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would weaken US to withdraw American forces from Europe if allies fail to peace process, says Pelosi”, The Irish Times, 17 October 2019. influence over EU countries, since Washington will lose pay more for the American protection. its best advocate and ally inside the EU. [5] Patrick Wintour, “US and Britain could sign sector-by-sector Trump’s mercantilist understanding of the transatlantic trade deals, says Bolton”, The At the same time, both Trump’s view of the EU allies security relationship is rooted in his zero-sum Guardian, 13 August 2019. and Brexit served as a wake-up call for the EU to move approach to world politics according to which foreign [6] Nathalie Nougayère, “A towards a closer cooperation in the field of security and relations are simple interactions to which the US has chaotic Brexit is part of Trump’s grand plan for Europe”, The defense. This is reflected in the EU Global Strategy for made disproportionately higher contributions than its Guardian, 14 March 2019. Foreign and Security Policy (EUGS) released in June allies, and has gotten raw deals from them and the [7] David E. Sanger and Maggie 2016, only few days after the results of the Brexit global order in general[9]. This sense of a bad bargain Haberman, “Donald Trump sets conditions for defending NATO vote, which stressed the need for the EU to achieve requiring urgent renegotiation, by putting America’s allies against attack,” The New “strategic autonomy” from the US security guarantees. interests first, has been the driving force behind York Times, July 20, 2016. From this perspective, Brexit might help the EU deepen Trump’s statements and policies and has caused much [8] Fabrice Pothier and Alexander its military integration projects under its Common concern in Europe about the US’ security posture Vershbow, “NATO and Trump: the case for a new transatlantic Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) such as the regarding NATO. bargain”, The Atlantic Council, May 2017. Permanent Structure Cooperation (PESCO) launched by 25 EU Member States in 2017. Added to this is The efforts of some senior administration officials to [9] A transcript of Donald Trump’s meeting with The the proposal made by former European Commission temper Trump’s statements such as Vice President Mike Washington Post editorial board, President Jean-Claude Juncker to establish a European Spence who said at the Munich Security Conference The Washington Post, March 21, 2016. Defense Fund (EDF), to be financed by the European in February 2017 that “the United States of America FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°545 / 04TH FEBRUARY 2020 The State of the Transatlantic Relationship in the Trump Era strongly supports NATO and will be unwavering in our bound together by our shared commitment to the commitment to this trans-Atlantic alliance”[10], were principles of democracy, individual liberty, and the rule barely enough to reassure the Europeans.