CHAPTER 2 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST This Page Intentionally Left Blank AVIATION ACTIVITY FORCAST TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 2 Aviation Activity Forecast 2.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Executive Summary of Forecasts for FAA Approval ................................................................................. 2-3 2.1.2 SLC Service Area ..................................................................................................................................................... 2-5 2.2 Review of Forecasts .................................................................................................................................................. 2-12 2.2.1 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2018-2038 .................................................................................... 2-12 2.2.2 Terminal Area Forecast 2017 (Published January, 2018) and Forecast Report ............................ 2-13 2.2.3 2019-2023 National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) .................................................... 2-14 2.2.4 2006 Salt Lake City International Airport Layout Plan Update .......................................................... 2-15 2.2.5 Utah Continuous Airport System Plan ......................................................................................................... 2-16 2.2.6 Expert Panel ............................................................................................................................................................ 2-17 2.2.7 Passenger Aircraft Fleet Mix-Baseline 2017 .............................................................................................. 2-18 2.3 Historical Operations ............................................................................................................................................... 2-19 2.4 Passenger Enplanements ....................................................................................................................................... 2-24 2.4.1 Historical Enplanements .................................................................................................................................... 2-24 2.4.2 Market Trends and Activity .............................................................................................................................. 2-35 2.4.3 Passenger Enplanement Forecasts ................................................................................................................ 2-44 2.5 Planning Day Model................................................................................................................................................. 2-60 2.5.1 Planning Day Model Methodology .............................................................................................................. 2-60 2.5.2 Baseline Flight Schedule 2018 ........................................................................................................................ 2-60 2.5.3 Planning Day Model Base Case Forecast .................................................................................................... 2-63 2.5.4 Planning Day Model Low Case Scenario Forecast .................................................................................. 2-77 2.5.5 Planning Day Model High Case Scenario Forecast ................................................................................. 2-82 2.5.6 Peak Day and Total Passenger Air Carrier Operations .......................................................................... 2-87 2.5.7 Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Operations ................................................................................... 2-90 2.6 Air Cargo....................................................................................................................................................................... 2-92 2.6.1 Historical Air Cargo ............................................................................................................................................. 2-92 2.6.2 Air Cargo Fleet Mix-Baseline 2017 ................................................................................................................ 2-99 2.6.3 Local Cargo Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 2-100 2.6.4 Total Air Cargo Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 2-102 2.6.5 Air Cargo Operations Forecast (Integrated Carriers) .......................................................................... 2-105 2.7 General Aviation and Military ............................................................................................................................ 2-108 2.7.1 General Aviation Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 2-108 2.7.2 Military Forecast ................................................................................................................................................ 2-112 2.8 Summary of Aircraft Operations ...................................................................................................................... 2-113 2.8.2 IFR and VFR Operations ................................................................................................................................. 2-116 Salt Lake City International Airport Master Plan i AVIATION ACTIVITY FORCAST 2.9 Critical Aircraft ......................................................................................................................................................... 2-117 2.10 Aviation Activity Forecasts Summary ............................................................................................................. 2-119 2.10.1 Comparison with FAA TAF ........................................................................................................................ 2-119 2.10.2 Forecast Usage within the Master Plan ............................................................................................... 2-121 APPENDIX C. Baseline Operations by Fleet Mix ..................................................................................................... 2-122 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2-1 SLC Service Area ...................................................................................................................................................... 2-6 FIGURE 2-2 Comparison of Historical Socioeconomic Variables (1993-2017)........................................................ 2-8 FIGURE 2-3 Comparison of Socioeconomic Variable Projections (2018-2037) ...................................................... 2-9 FIGURE 2-4 Comparison of Gross Domestic Product Forecasts by Various Sources ......................................... 2-11 FIGURE 2-5 Projected Revenue Passenger Enplanements for U.S. Commercial Air Carriers (2017-2038). 2-12 FIGURE 2-6 Recent TAF Forecast Growth Rates for SLC ................................................................................................ 2-13 FIGURE 2-7 Comparison of NPIAS Large Hub Airports .................................................................................................. 2-14 FIGURE 2-8 Optimistic and Conservative Scenarios (2006 SLC Airport Layout Plan Update) ........................ 2-15 FIGURE 2-9 2007 UCASP Forecast for Commerical Operations and Enplanements in Utah ........................... 2-16 FIGURE 2-10 Historical Total Operations (2003-2017) ................................................................................................... 2-20 FIGURE 2-11 Historical Passenger Operations (2003-2017) ......................................................................................... 2-21 FIGURE 2-12 Historical General Aviation Operations (2003-2017) ............................................................................ 2-22 FIGURE 2-13 Historical Military Operations (2003-2017) .............................................................................................. 2-23 FIGURE 2-14 Historical Enplanement Breakdown (1993-2017) .................................................................................. 2-25 FIGURE 2-15 Historical O&D and Connecting Enplanements (2013-2017) ........................................................... 2-27 FIGURE 2-16 Top 25 International Destinations by Region (2017)............................................................................ 2-32 FIGURE 2-17 Peak Month Enplanements (FY 2013-2017) ............................................................................................. 2-33 FIGURE 2-18 SLC Air Carrier Market Share of Enplanements (2013 & 2017) ........................................................ 2-35 FIGURE 2-19 Nonstop Destinations (August, 2018) ........................................................................................................ 2-36 FIGURE 2-20 Historic Load Factors ......................................................................................................................................... 2-37 FIGURE 2-21 Comparison of Regional Large Hub Airport Enplanements (2013-2017) .................................... 2-38 FIGURE 2-22 Annual Average Domestic Airfare Comparison