Event Partners GOLD LEVEL • CAMPBEL.LSCIENTIFIC C ........ "' Oo .... co", .. , Campbell Scientific www.campbelisci.ca SILVER LEVEL Pelmorex Media Inc. www.theweathernetwork.com ECOCanada www.eco.ca Taylor & Francis Publishers t::;:\ Taylor & Francis www.taylorandfrancisgroup.com ~ Taylor & Francis Group With the support of: ~](~ Environmental travetgence AXYS OCEAN NElWORKS CANADA Sciences AUnMnIIy."., .... -., Te c hnologies Inc Canada Conference Wireless Internet: CMOS2011 ! --s-;~i;li~~~- i~- s-';hi~-ii-;~~;;i- -;;-~d-;;;;ii~-~~-;;;;;ii- i;;;~~I~~t;;-tr;-;:;~i;-ti~~ -;;;;~;;f;-i;;;;~~;;" ;;~;;.-""" ! !... M_ _ _ ... 45th CMOS Congress 2011 Page 2 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) presents: Ocean, Atmosphere and the Changing Pacific PROGRAM Editor: Lisa Vitols 45th CMOS Congress June 5 - 9, 2011 Victoria, B.C. http://www.cmos.ca/congress2011 Interactive Conference Schedule: https:llwwwl.cmos.ca/abstracts/congress schedule.asp Build your personal conference agenda at: https:llwwwl.cmos.ca/agenda Abstracts available online. ISBN: 978-0-9732812-9-3 Table of Contents 5 Welcome from the Premier of BC 6 Welcome from the Mayor of Victoria Welcome from the Canadian Meteorological and 7 Oceanographic Society 8 Social Program 9 Welcome from the Organizing Committees 10 Supporting Committees 11 General Information 12 A Word about the Society 12 Volunteers 13 Student Travel Bursary Recipients 2011 14 Guidelines for Presenters and Session Chairs 15 Poster Sessions and Exhibitors 16 Public Lectures # 17-18 Conference Workshops 19 Educators' Day 20-23 Plenary Speakers 24-35 Scientific Session Descriptions 36-37 Advertising - AXYS Technologies. ATS Services, R. Stull 38 CMOS 2012 Congress 39-40 Maps 41 Author Index, Conference Agenda, WeeK at a Glance I 84 Abstracts - 45th CMOS Congress 20 11 Page 4 , I , j,... .. ~ : ...... "1\.;r-!· BRITISH COLUM BIA JWle 2011 A Messagefrom tl,e Premier As Premier of the Province ofB,'Wsh Columbia, I am pleased to welcome evel)'one to the 45th annual Canadian lI.feteorological and Oceanographic Society Congress in Victoria, our bealltijiJI capital city. I wish you all the best in your deliberations as you discuss ideas, concerns and new research with colleagues as well as with members ofgavenrrnellt , academia and the private sector. I hope you will also have an opportunity to enjoy all that Victoria has to offer from tourism to recreational and social options. It is a first class city with stumlJng views and plenty of land and water side eventsfor YOIl to el/joy. The people here are proud and friendly. and they work hard to ensure YOllr time with us is both pleasant and memorable. Welcome to Victoria! Sincerely, CL;z;U{ Christy Clark Premier p,..... tt o£Baia.h eeI ••hi. Ofict .rthe Pre .. iu Vanoouv<:! Be --i""k.~ V6C 3El 45th CMOS Congress 2011 PageS THE CITY Of VICTORIA OFFICE OF THE MAYOR Greetings from the Mayor of Victoria On behalf of the City of Victoria. I am pleased to welcome you to the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society's 45th Annual Congre". I am honoured that you have chosen Victoria as the site of your Congress this year. I have no doubts that the next few days will be challenging and inspiring. The exchange of creative and innovative ideas is vital for advancing our collective knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences: knowledge that intimately shapes our understanding of the world and society. Uniting this community every year is commendable and necessary. I wish you all the best in your deliberations. I hope that while you are here you can take some time to explore our beautiful city - our thriving downtown. unique neighborhoods. and the stunning natural beauty all around us. Most importantly. I hope you have the opportunity to connect with the local citizens; it is the friendly and welcoming people which make Victoria so specia\. Sincerely. Dean Fortin MAYOR No. 1 Ccnt~nnial Square Victoria Britifooh Columhia Canada VRW I P6 Te h~phone (250) 361 ·0200 Fax (250) 361 · 0348 Email mOlyot<ihi('(onu.ca 45th CMOS Congress 2011 Page 6 Welcome from the President On behalf of CMOS, it my distinct pleasure to welcomeJou to our 45th Annual Congress with the theme of the 'Ocean, Atmosphere an the Changing Pacific". This CongJ;ess is the pre-eminent Canadian forum for the exchange of ideas involving the government, academic and private sectors in meteorology and oceanography. We will explore the applications and impacts of these ideas on a regional, national and international basis. Our program features the latest scientific results with close to 500 meteorological and oceanographic papers, as presented in plenary sessions, parallel scientific sessions and as posters. The Congress also provides us with an opportunity to recognize outstanding colleagues, to network with our peers from across Canada and internationally through many social events and to learn about the world-class products and services offered by exhibitors. Public outreach is an important part of the Congress activities. The program includes two public lectures by internationally recognized scientists, an Educators' Day, and a series of workshops on a variety of interesting and relevant topics. I would like to thank all of our sponsors for their support of the Congress. Also, I wish to thank the dozens of dedicated volunteers wIlo made this event possible, in particular Nathan Gillett, chair of the Local Arrangements Committee and Bill Merryfield, chair of the Scientific Program Committee. Sincerely yours, David Fissel President Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 45th CMOS Congress 2011 Page 7 Social Program Sunday June 5 Icebreaker Reception I' -1.- , .J ., y Sponsors: V>i Pi ~a a , ,j Pelmorex I" , ~ I: "~ ' '0 fCOCanada ~ ~ I ~- ~ (to mark the launch of the P. Met. Certification) Mil ., ) II' ~. ~ ,. ;""" .... I '.-: .. tAl 18:30 - 21:30 , , I m ('" .1 19:15 Welcoming ceremony I • '. , - Leola-La First Nations dance troupe VI , .. '-" ....- Royal BC Museum - First Peoples Gallery • • level 2, Royal BC Museum 675 Belleville Street. Walk out of the Victoria Conference Centre Monday June 6 (VCC) main exit, turn right along Douglas, then Student Pub Night turn right on Belleville. 19:30 Hors d'oeuvres and drinks will be served. Meet in Victoria Tickets in your Registration package. Conference Centre (VCC) lobby. Historic Crystal Garden, c 1925 Tuesday June 7 Parsons Luncheon 12:00 - 14:00 Crystal Garden (across street from VCC main door) 720 Douglas Street Crystal Garden. c2010 Wednesday June 8 CMOS Awards Banquet 18:00 -19:00 Reception Gallery in the Crystal Garden Sponsor: Taylor & Francis, publisher of Atmosphere-Ocean Free beverage and cash bar. 19:00 - 21:30 Banquet and Awards Crystal Garden 45th CMOS Congress 2011 Page 8 Welcome from the Organizing Committees On behalf of the local Arrangements and Scientific Program Committees, it gives us great pleasure to welcome you to Victoria for the 45tb Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. This y'ear's scientific proBI"am features an array of high-proille plenary speakers, and a broad range of topIcal and exciting scientific seSSIons. We are giving special prominence to poster presentations this year, with two new poster prizes, and posters on display throughout the Congress in the spacious Carson Hall. The Congress theme, "Ocean, Atmosphere and the Changing Pacific", will highlight the wide-ranging Impacts of changes in the vast ocean off Canada's western shore. Social highligIits of this year's Congress include an icebreaker reception in the First Peoples Gillery of the Royal BCMuseum, and a four-course banquet at the Crystal Garden, preceded by a hosted reception sponsored by publishers Taylor and Francis. This year's meeting is quite a contrast from the last CMOS Congress held in Victoria in 2000, when the program consisted of slightly over 200 abstracts, the venue was a series of classrooms at the University of Victoria, and most of the talks were presented with the aid of an overhead projector. This year's program, with approximately 500 presentations, hosted in the excellent facilities of the Victoria Conference Centre, reflects the growth of CMOS in numbers and breadth, while technological advances continue to transform the way we conduct and present our researcli. We wish to thank all who have dedicated their time and efforts toward making this Congress possible, especially the members of the local Arrangements and Scientific Program Comffilttees and the many volunteers who will be assisting with all aspects of the meeting. We hope that in addition to taking part in the scientific and social activities at this year's Congress you will have time to enjoy exploring Victoria and its beautiful surroundings. Yours sincerely, ~~~~ Nathan Gillett Bill Merryfield Chair, local Arrangements Committee Chair, Scientific Program Committee 45th CMOS Congress 2011 Page 9 Organizing Committees Local Arrangements Committee Nathan Gillett Local Arrangements Committee Chair Bill Merryfield Scientific Program Committee Chair Greg Flato Sponsorship Daniel Roy Facilities, Entertainment, Audio-Visual Lisa Vitols Educators' Day, Program Book Knut von Salzen Social Program Kirsten Zickfeld Communications Angelica Pena Webmaster Frank Whitney Exhibits Michael Eby Local Registration NilgOn Kulan Volunteers Krista Zala Educators' Day, Media John Scinocca Treasurer Oscar Koren Exhibits Ian Rutherford CMOS Executive Scientific Program Committee Bill Merryfield (Chair) Environment Canada Vivek Arora Environment