Portland Area Mainline Needs Assessment Final Alternatives Analysis Report HNTB Corporation August 24, 2018 This page left intentionally blank. HNTB Corporation Acknowledgements Maine Turnpike Authority Staff Peter Mills, Executive Director Doug Davidson, Chief Financial Officer Peter Merfeld, Chief Operating Officer Bruce Van Note, Director of Policy and Planning Erin Courtney, Public Outreach and Marketing Manager Study Team Paul Godfrey, HNTB Ariel Greenlaw, HNTB John Jaeckel, HNTB Chris Kopp, HNTB Sarah Maloney, HNTB Matthew Pelletier, HNTB Todd Pendleton, HNTB Elizabeth Roberts, HNTB Carol Morris, Morris Communications Kevin Hooper, Kevin Hooper Associates Charlie Colgan, Ph.D. HNTB Corporation This page left intentionally blank. Portland Area Mainline Needs Assessment Alternatives Evaluation Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. ES-i 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Public Outreach Process ....................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Public Advisory Committee ...................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 PAC Meeting #1 ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 PAC Meeting #2 ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3 PAC Meeting #3 ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.4 PAC Meeting #4 ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.5 PAC Meeting #5 ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.6 Publicity and Outreach for PAC Meetings ............................................................................. 10 2.3 Public Information Campaign ................................................................................................ 10 2.3.1 Social, Paid and Earned Media ............................................................................................... 10 2.4 Municipal Council Meetings .................................................................................................. 11 2.4.1 Public Open House ................................................................................................................. 11 2.5 Quantitative Summary of Online Comments ........................................................................ 11 3. Existing Traffic Conditions ................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Maine Turnpike ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Study Area .............................................................................................................................. 13 3.3 Data Collection ....................................................................................................................... 15 3.4 Existing Traffic Characteristics ............................................................................................... 15 3.4.1 Maine Turnpike Average Annual Daily Traffic volumes ......................................................... 16 3.4.2 Traffic Volume Growth .......................................................................................................... 16 3.4.3 Monthly Variation .................................................................................................................. 17 3.4.4 Day of the Week Variation ..................................................................................................... 18 3.4.5 Hourly Traffic Volumes .......................................................................................................... 18 3.4.6 Peak Hour Volumes ................................................................................................................ 19 3.4.7 Vehicle Class & Type .............................................................................................................. 20 3.4.8 Tolling Revenue ...................................................................................................................... 20 3.4.9 Interchange Origin & Destination Patterns ........................................................................... 22 3.4.10 Local, Regional & Thru Traffic ................................................................................................ 24 3.4.11 Travel Time – Maine Turnpike vs. I-295 ................................................................................. 26 3.5 Existing Traffic Operations ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5.1 Level of Service ...................................................................................................................... 26 i Portland Area Mainline Needs Assessment Alternatives Evaluation 3.5.2 Volume to Capacity Ratio ...................................................................................................... 29 3.5.3 Analysis Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 29 3.5.4 2016 Existing Conditions Analysis Results ............................................................................. 29 4. Existing Safety Conditions ................................................................................................................... 31 4.1 High Crash Locations .............................................................................................................. 31 4.2 Total Crashes.......................................................................................................................... 31 4.3 Seasonal Crashes ................................................................................................................... 32 4.4 Crash Rate .............................................................................................................................. 33 4.5 Crash Severity ........................................................................................................................ 34 5. Future Traffic Conditions .................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................ 35 5.2 Forecast Year ......................................................................................................................... 35 5.3 Growth Rate ........................................................................................................................... 35 5.4 Future Traffic Operations ...................................................................................................... 42 5.5 Impacts of a Possible Westerly Connection to Gorham ........................................................ 43 6. Alternatives Evaluation ....................................................................................................................... 45 6.1 Alternatives Considered ........................................................................................................ 45 6.2 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 46 6.2.1 PACTS Model .......................................................................................................................... 46 6.2.2 Benefit/Cost ........................................................................................................................... 47 6.2.3 Effects of Induced Demand .................................................................................................... 47 6.3 Measures of Effectiveness ..................................................................................................... 48 6.4 Alternative 1 – Future No Action ........................................................................................... 51 6.5 Travel Demand Management Alternatives ............................................................................ 55 6.5.1 Alternative 2 – Transportation Demand Management Programs ......................................... 56 6.5.2 Alternative 3 – Congestion Pricing ......................................................................................... 62 6.5.3 Alternative 4 - Public Transportation: New or Improved Interstate Bus Service .................. 66 6.5.4 Alternative 5a - Public Transportation: New or Improved Regional Bus Service .................. 70 6.5.5 Alternative 5b - Public Transportation: New or Improved Local Bus Service ........................ 73 6.5.6 Alternative 5c - Public Transportation: New I-95 Corridor Regional