Common Global and Local Drivers of RevPAR in Asian Cities by Crocker H. Liu, Ph.D., Pamela C. Moulton, Ph.D., Cornell Hospitality Report and Daniel C. Quan, Ph.D. Vol. 13, No. 612 January May 2013 All CHR reports are available for free download, but may not be reposted, reproduced, or distributed without the express permission of the publisher Cornell Hospitality Report Vol. 13, No. 6 (May 2013) © 2013 Cornell University. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without the express permission of the publisher. Cornell Hospitality Report is produced for the benefit of the hospitality industry by The Center for Hospitality Research at Cornell University. Robert J. 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Power and Associates • The Leading Hotels of the World, Ltd. • Lodging Hospitality • Lodging Magazine • LRA Worldwide, Inc. • Milestone Internet Marketing • MindFolio • Mindshare Technologies • PhoCusWright Inc. • PKF Hospitality Research • Questex Hospitality Group • The Resort Trades • RestaurantEdge.com • Shibata Publishing Co. • Sustainable Travel International • UniFocus • WIWIH.COM Common Global and Local Drivers of RevPAR in Asian Cities by Crocker H. Liu, Pamela C. Moulton, and Daniel C. Quan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY his study examines the common global and local factors that drive changes in revenue per available room (RevPAR) in eight major Asian cities. We find that RevPARs for these cities tended to move together until about 2009, after which the RevPARs began diverging significantly. The study tests economic variables that capture both local and global factors and which explain Tmost of the changes in RevPAR in each city. One factor, the number of tourist arrivals, is always positively associated with RevPAR changes in the eight cities. Other factors that drive RevPAR in most of the eight cities are inflation, Chinese consumer confidence, U.S. consumer confidence, and Chinese real-estate development (as a proxy for China’s GDP). Most of these gateway cities are more heavily influenced by global factors than local factors. At one extreme, global factors explain over 90 percent of the changes in RevPAR in Seoul. At the other extreme, local factors explain 66 percent of the changes in RevPAR in Bangkok. These similarities and differences give hoteliers and investors a window into the factors that drive their properties’ revenues and allow a more accurate risk assessment. 4 The Center for Hospitality Research • Cornell University . CREF Faculty Wally Boudry John (Jack) Corgel Jan deRoos Assistant Professor of Real Baker Professor of Real HVS Professor of Hotel Finance Estate Estate and Real Estate PhD, New York University PhD, University of Georgia PhD, Cornell University ABOUT THE AUTHORS . CREF Faculty Crocker H. Liu, Ph.D., is a professor of real estate and the Robert A. Beck Professor of Hospitality Financial Management at the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University. He previously taught at New York University’s Stern School of Business (1988-2006) and at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business (2006-2009) where he held the McCord Chair. His research interests are focused on issues in real estate finance, particularly topics related to agency, corporate governance, organizational forms, market efficiency and valuation. Liu’s research has been published in the Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Business, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Financial Markets, Review of Finance, Real Estate Economics and the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. He is currently the co-editor of Real Estate Economics and is on the editorial board of the Journal of Property Research. He also previously served on the editorial boards of the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics and the Journal of Real Estate Finance.Daniel C. Quan Crocker H. Liu Peng(Peter) Liu Pamela C. Moulton, Ph.D., CFA, is an assistant professor at the Cornell University School of Hotel AdministrationSTB Distinguished Professor in Robert A. Beck Professor of Hospitality Assistant Professor Real Estate Asian Hospitality Management Financial Management([email protected]). Her teaching and research interests include financial markets and market microstructure, with a special interest in liquidity. Moulton’s publications include papers on time variation in liquidity, international PhD, University of California, PhD, University of California, PhD, Universitycross-listings, of Texas and optimal trading strategies. HerBerkley current research focuses on return predictability andBerkley institutional and individual investor behavior. Moulton’s research has been published in several academic journals, including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Accounting and Economics, the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and the Journal of Financial Markets. Prior to her academic career, Moulton worked in research for more than a dozen years at various Wall Street investment banks, including Deutsche Bank, where she was a Managing Director and Global Co-Head of Relative Value Research. From 2003 to 2006 she was a Managing Director and Senior Economist at the New York Stock Exchange, where she focused on equity market microstructure research. She was previously on the faculty of the Graduate School of Business Administration at Fordham University. Daniel C. Quan, Ph.D., is the Singapore