UNEP REPORT OF THE MEETING OF EXPERTS ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX Valletta, Malta 29 November - 3 December 1999 Organised by the Islands and Small States Institute, Foundation for International Studies, University of Malta in collaboration with South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Fiji Edited by: LINO BRIGUGLIO Islands and Small States Institute, Foundation for International Studies, University of Malta URSULA KALY Environmental Adviser, Tuvalu Government, Tuvalu CRAIG PRATT South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Fiji South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 08/02/99 PROPOSAL The Refinement of the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) 1. Project Aims: · To develop a fully functional and tested environmental vulnerability index that has been critically reviewed and refined by international experts · To build capacity within the South Pacific region to identify, analyse and collect data for the environmental vulnerability index · To develop a simple robust computer user interface for the environmental vulnerability index model to facilitate data entry and streamline EVI computation 2. Introduction The first phase of the environmental vulnerability index project funded by the New Zealand Government and recently completed by SOPAC, achieved its primary goal of developing a conceptual framework for a workable environmental vulnerability index. The EVI calculator was also tested with limited data on 3 countries which clearly showed its potential as an operational and useful gauge for environmental vulnerability. The environmental vulnerability index now needs to be comprehensively tested both mathematically as well as with comprehensive real data to assess its capacity to differentiate between the environmental vulnerability of several countries throughout the region with a view to extending the EVI model to the world. The environmental vulnerability index also needs to undergo critical review by international experts together with consultation with regional representatives and agencies to ensure that it is developed into an internationally acceptable and workable EVI. Seven major tasks have been identified for the successful full development of the EVI as a tool for measuring and managing the vulnerability of countries. These are presented in a module format so that either the entire package or several different modules or parts thereof may be taken up by funding agencies. There are 4 basic modules which include: 1. Continuation, Review and Profile Raising of the EVI 2. Capacity-building and EVI database 3. EVI Model/Indicator Refinement 4. Development of EVI User Interface 1 South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 08/02/99 The modules are currently presented only in concept with estimated budget and timeframe. Detailed proposals for each module will be provided as required. Some of the tasks within modules require others as prerequisites for their successful completion and these are highlighted below. 3. Modules required for developing the index and their justification Module 1: Continuation, Review and Profile Raising of the EVI Module 1.1 Continuity of EVI Work – Bridging Finance Aim: To ensure continuity of the EVI work developed in the first phase of the project and provide expert briefing to the regional, internationalfora and New Zealand government on the outcomes of phase I. To ensure continuity of the work developed in the first phase of the project requires the immediate provision of resources to secure a minimum SOPAC EVI study team with sufficient funding to carry through the outcomes of phase I and continue preparation for phase II of the project. This team would consist of one staff and one assistant. Bridging finance will be needed to maintain the momentum generated by phase I and to allow presentation of Phase I results to SIDS and the international fora to maintain its high profile. This will help to raise awareness of the important research being carried out by the region and SOPAC on vulnerability indices and help in forging links with other research agencies. It will also help with the identification of support for funding for the next phase and allow the continuation of communications and collection of detailed information on the three case study countries used in Phase I. To facilitate the special technical briefing of SIDs on the environmental vulnerability index, the SOPAC EVI team (two staff) will need funding assistance to attend the preparatory meetings for CSD7 in New York from the 1 – 5 March, 1999. It would also be highly beneficial for a special briefing to be held between the SOPAC EVI study team (two staff) with the New Zealand Environment Minister – the Honourable Simon Upton and appropriate agencies to discuss the environmental vulnerability index and outcomes of Phase I. All comments on the Final Report of Phase I will be collated and examined for possible usefulness in the refining of EVI indicator questions. 2 South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 08/02/99 Outputs/Benefits: · Maintain momentum generated in the international arena surrounding the environmental vulnerability index through the presentation of outcomes of Phase I to SIDS and the international community at CSD · Raise profile and further consideration of the environmental vulnerability index as a technically feasible measure of vulnerability through expert briefings by the SOPAC EVI study team · Raise profile of EVI at conferences and other regional and internationalfora · Develop funding proposals and source possible funding agencies · Start refinements of questions based on responses and comments from the Final Report of Phase I · Compile information for an EVI database of country information in particular the 3 case study countries used in Phase I · Forge links with other study groups · Brief the Honourable Simon Upton and NZ government agencies on the EVI and outcomes of Phase I Budget/Timeframe: · FJ$84,275 - 6 months Module 1.2 Put the EVI to an International Environmental Expert “Think Tank” Aim: To obtain international expert input to critique, refine and consolidate the environmental vulnerability index model. The SOPAC EVI Team will host a small conference of up to 12 highly-specialised international experts in the fields of: 1. Statistical methods, particularly multivariate systems 2. Biodiversity / biogeography 3. Other types of indices that summarise very complex data 4. Weather / climate 5. Disaster research 6. Ecosystem management 7. Fisheries 8. Forestry and agriculture 9. Productivity and the flow of energy in and out of ecosystems 3 South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 08/02/99 The purpose of this "think tank" is to expose the EVI model and its components to intense highly-technical discussion for up to 5 days. The “think tank” is considered the most cost effective way to obtain expert consideration of the EVI. We specifically envisage inputs to: · The methods used to calculate the index, whether there may be better mathematical approaches; · The questions which form the heart of the index and "measure" vulnerability; · The response levels set for each question, and whether they should be linear or non- linear and the maxima and minima used; · Whether there are other types of data available, or which will be available soon that should be incorporated; · Identify any biases, strengths and weaknesses in the model that were not identified during Phase I. Working together with the SOPAC EVI Team, these experts can be harnessed to ensure that the final EVI is technically excellent, will be able to properly carry out the functions required and will have the support of some of the most important scientists in their respective disciplines. Outputs/Benefits: · Launches the EVI into the international technical arena and provides immediate critical feedback on the strengths and weaknesses of the EVI from several of the most important scientists in environmental research · Critical refinement/development input and problem solving of the environmental vulnerability index · Publicity and profile raising of the EVI · A critiqued and workable EVI that is ratified by experts in the scientific community · Conference report Budget/Timeframe: · FJ$58,853 - 5 days 4 South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 08/02/99 Module 1.3 Publication of the EVI in International Journal Aim: To obtain international scientific peer review of the EVI work and ensure intellectual copyright To ensure that intellectual copyright of the EVI developed by the EVI Team and its funding agent (NZODA) is established, we propose to publish the results of Phase I in an international journal. It will be necessary to fully describe the approach taken, questions used and their scoring levels, and mathematical techniques so that the EVI developed becomes a technically recognised entity. This ensures that refinements are tracked and that changes to the index by others who might take up the task are fully identified. It also ensures that the process of peer- review required for excellence of the model can be an on-going process within the international community. SOPAC will also continue to publicise the environmental vulnerability index development work being undertaken through coverage in its own publications and exposure at variousfora. Outputs/Benefits: · Establish the EVI as an intellectual entity · Published intellectual ownership of the environmental vulnerability index model · Comments and constructive feedback on the EVI · Raises the EVI profile Budget/Timeframe: