UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, RIVERSIDE BERKELEY z DAVIS z IRVINE z LOS ANGELES z MERCED z RIVERSIDE z SAN DIEGO z SAN FRANCISCO SANTA BARBARA z SANTA CRUZ CENTER FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY COLLEGE OF NATURAL AND AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES RIVERSIDE, CALIFORNIA 92521-0122 CITRUS RESEARCH CENTER AND AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION TEL: 951-827-5484; FAX: 951-827-4625 CCB 2005: Towards developing a monitoring framework for Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plans. Part I. Michael F. Allen, Director John Rotenberry, Associate Director Thomas Scott, Associate Director Ken Halama, Project Coordinator Kristine Preston, WRC MSHCP Project Manager Cooperating Faculty Allison Rudaleveige (Pettis) Undergraduate Students Edith Allen Laurel Salzman Lonnie Bachor Bai-Lian Li Ginny Short Chris Glover Richard Minnich Greg Smith Daniel Guy Richard Redak Robert Steers Amber Holt Andrew Sanders Andrew Stoehr Emma Middlemiss Melissa Mutrux Post-Doctoral Research Research Staff and Associates Melissa Preston Associates Michael Aspell Trinity Ryan Xiongwen Chen Roxanne Broadway Nhi Huong Vu Wendy Hodges Patricia Brock Alexander Yun Monica Swartz Jolene Cassano Antonio Celis Graduate Students Kathleen Fleming Karen Bagne Darrell Hutchinson Cameron Barrows Sheila Kee Sharon Coe Kristen Larsen Robert Cox Eliza Maher Jill Deppe Wendy Mello Laramy Enders Brandon Mutrux Lori Hargrove Orlay Plummer Jason Hlebakos Nanette Pratini Anna Howell Tom Prentice Pey-Yi Lee Tim Redman Myong-Bok Li Vanessa Rivera Del Rio Adam Malisch Veronique Rorive Senanu Pearson Marisa Sripracha Susanna Peluc Tracy Tennant Kim Oldehoft Chris True CCB 2005: Towards development of a monitoring framework... TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary Development of the Riverside County Monitoring Program............. i Synopsis of CCB Activities in WRC, 2003-2005.................................. iii Synopsis of CCB Activities in CV, 2002-2005...................................... iv Results and Recommendations to Date in the Design of Protocols and Monitoring Strategies........................................................................ v Chapter 1 Theoretical Framework and Methodology Background................................................................................................. 1-1 Community-Based Monitoring Approach............................................. 1-4 Occupancy Approach............................................................................... 1-9 Demonstrate Conservation Species........................................................ 1-10 Chapter 2 Time and Effort................................................................................................ 2-1 Chapter 3 Developing Niche Models with Partitioned Mahalanobis D2............ 3-1 Chapter 4 Species Occurrence Database and GIS Methodologies Overview..................................................................................................... 4-1 CCB Species Occurrence Database......................................................... 4-2 Niche Model Variables-Preparation of GIS Layers.............................. 4-4 Creation of Calibration Point Datasets................................................... 4-8 Creation of Map Point Dataset................................................................ 4-9 Extraction of GIS Environmental Variables to Calibration and Map Point Datasets................................................................................... 4-10 Model Runs.................................................................................................. 4-10 Chapter 5 Predicting Species Distributions: Niche Models for Covered Plant and Bird Species Introduction................................................................................................. 5-1 Methods........................................................................................................ 5-4 Results........................................................................................................... 5-7 Discussion.................................................................................................... 5-28 Chapter 6 Reptile Niche Models Introduction................................................................................................. 6-1 Methods........................................................................................................ 6-2 Results........................................................................................................... 6-5 Discussion.................................................................................................... 6-13 Chapter 7 Coastal Sage Scrub Community Niche Models Introduction................................................................................................. 7-1 Methods....................................................................................................... 7-3 Results.......................................................................................................... 7-8 Discussion.................................................................................................... 7-13 CCB 2005: Towards development of a monitoring framework... Chapter 8 Spatial Structure of Multispecies Distributions in Southern California ........................................................................................................... 8-1 Chapter 9 Coastal Sage Scrub Community Monitoring Results Introduction.................................................................................................. 9-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 9-3 Results............................................................................................................ 9-8 Discussion..................................................................................................... 9-15 Chapter 10 Riparian Community Monitoring and Modeling Introduction.................................................................................................. 10-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 10-2 Results............................................................................................................ 10-7 Discussion..................................................................................................... 10-27 Chapter 11 Conceptual Models and the Monitoring Framework Introduction.................................................................................................. 11-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 11-5 Results............................................................................................................ 11-5 Discussion..................................................................................................... 11-6 Chapter 12 Demonstrate Conservation Species Introduction.................................................................................................. 12-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 12-1 Results............................................................................................................ 12-2 Discussion..................................................................................................... 12-2 Chapter 13 Rare Plant Species Introduction.................................................................................................. 13-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 13-1 Results............................................................................................................ 13-2 Discussion..................................................................................................... 13-2 Chapter 14 Burrowing Owls Introduction.................................................................................................. 14-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 14-1 Results............................................................................................................ 14-2 Discussion..................................................................................................... 14-2 Chapter 15 Raptors Introduction.................................................................................................. 15-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 15-2 Results............................................................................................................ 15-3 Discussion..................................................................................................... 15-3 CCB 2005: Towards development of a monitoring framework... Chapter 16 Bird Recordings Introduction.................................................................................................. 16-1 Methods......................................................................................................... 16-3 Results (In Progress).................................................................................... 16-5 Justification.................................................................................................... 16-6 Chapter 17 Conclusions & Recommendations Monitoring Framework