Mentor: Dr. Julia Azari Rafael Torres Political Science The Supreme Court decision to recognize associations as persons and allow them to use unlimited funds as political speech will make elections more competitive and increase the number of Senators who choose to voluntarily depart from Congress, therefore there should be an increase in the rate of departure, a decrease in the number of service years, and a decrease in age of non-retiring Senators. Decided January 21, 2010 Strikes down prohibitions on independent expenditures and election communications for associations previous restriction violated the 1st Amendment's freedom of speech Organizations are free to call on others to vote for or against specific candidates. Basically, makes elections more competitive - 2010 State of the Union Address http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bR_9wmNnD4 ◦ "I predict to you that there will be huge scandals associated with this huge flood of money”. ◦ “I think there will be scandals associated with the worst decision of the United States Supreme Court in the 21st century” ◦ "What they have clearly become is a partisan arm of corporate America. This is a real serious problem for our democracy”, “It's essentially a court that rules in one direction”. ◦ "This is one of those moments where the court thinks it's the legislature." Historic number of retirements Departures are often unplanned change in the composition of the Senate Not much research on Senate retirements Retirement Resignation Classic Higher office retirement Anticipation of Loss/Not Dissatisfied wanting to run with the job for reelection Scandal Better job Pre- Citizens United Departures 108 Congress 2002-2004 Ernest Hollings, Don Nickles, John Breaux, Bob Graham, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Peter Fitzgerald, John Edwards, Zell Miller 109 Congress 2004-2006 Paul Sarbanes, Jim Jeffords, Bill Frist, Jon Corzine, Mark Dayton 110 Congress 2006-2008 Pete Domenici, John Warner, Trent Lott, Larry Craig, Wayne Allard, Chuck Hagel , Barack Obama 111 Congress 2008-2010 Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Kit Bond, Byron Dorgan, Judd Gregg, Jim Bunning, George Voinovich, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Mel Martinez, Ken Salazar, Roland Burris, Carte Goodwin, George LeMieux, Paul G. Kirk, Ted Kaufman 112 Congress 2010-2012 Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Kit Bond, Byron Dorgan, Judd Gregg, Jim Bunning, George Voinovich, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Mel Martinez, Ken Salazar, Roland Burris, Carte Goodwin, George LeMieux, Paul G. Kirk, Ted Kaufman 113 Congress 2012-2014 Max Baucus, Carl Levin, Tom Harkin, Jay Rockefeller, Tim Johnson, Saxby Chambliss, Mike Johanns, John Kerry Pre-Citizens United - Years of Service Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 108 Congress Retired 12.3 Average # of Senate Current 13.7 Years of Service at the End of the 108 Congress 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 109 Congress Retired 14.4 Average # of Senate Years Current 14.3 of Service at the End of the 109 Congress 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 110 Congress Retired 21.0 Average # of Senate Years Current 14.6 of Service at the End of the 110 Congress 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 111 Congress 11.6 Average # of Senate Years of Current 14.0 Service at the End of the 111 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Congress Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 112 Congress Retired 18.3 Average # of Senate Years Current 12.3 of Service at the End of the 112 Congress 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Average # of Senate Years of Service at the End of the 113 Congress Retired 24.6 Average # of Senate Years Current 10.9 of Service at the End of the 113 Congress 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Average Age at the End of the 108 Congress Retired 64.0 Average Age at the End of the Current 62.3 108 Congress 61.0 61.5 62.0 62.5 63.0 63.5 64.0 64.5 Average Age at the End of the 109 Congress Retired 64.4 Average Age at the End of the Current 63.2 109 Congress 62.5 63.0 63.5 64.0 64.5 Average Age at the End of the 110 Congress Retired 69.7 Average Age at the End of the Current 64.5 110 Congress 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 72.0 Average Age at the End of the 111 … Retired 64.0 Average Age at the End of Current 64.6 the 111 Congress 63.6 63.8 64.0 64.2 64.4 64.6 64.8 Average Age at the End of the 112 Congress Retired 69.5 Average Age at the End of the Current 63.5 112 Congress 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 Average Age at the End of the 113 Congress Retired 69.8 Average Age at the End of the Current 62.9 113 Congress 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 72.0 Incumbents are more safe from the effects of Citizens United Less career politicians Less experienced Senate No significant difference in age Continued trend of voluntary departure Time Only 6 Congresses More Congresses House of Representatives Find out more details about departing Senators -Bernstein, Jeffrey L. and Wolak, Jennifer. Political Research Quarterly. "A Bicameral Perspective on Legislative Retirement: The Case of the Senate". Sage Publications. http.//prq.sagepub.com/content/55/2/375. May 2002. -Wolak, Jennifer. Legislative Studies Quarterly, XXXII. "Strategic Retirements: The Influence of Public Preferences on Voluntary Departures from Congress". University of Colorado at Boulder. May 2007. p. 285-308..