Central Corridor Transit Access Study Final Report Prepared For: April 2014 Citizens for Modern Transit Central Corridor Transit Access Study Final Report April 2014 Prepared For: Citizens for Modern Transit 911 Washington Ave, Suite 200 St. Louis, Missouri 63101 Prepared By: Bernardin, Lochmueller & Associates, Inc. 411 North 10th St, Suite 200 St. Louis, Missouri 63101 In Association With: Parsons Brinckerhoff David Mason & Associates H3 Studio Innis Consulting CENTRAL CORRIDOR TRANSIT ACCESS STUDY Acknowledgements Project Management Team Kimberly M Cella Executive Director Citizens for Modern Transit Mark Phillips Long-Range Planner Metro Advisory Committee Chris Poehler, Delmar Loop Trolley Co. Dennis Lower, Cortex Don C Musick III, Citizens for Modern Transit Greg Patterson, BJC Hank Webber, Washington University Jerry Blair, East-West Gateway Council of Governments John Langa, Metro Karin Hagaman, Cortex Mary Campbell, Washington University Ray Friem, Metro Rose Windmiller, Washington University Stephen Gregali, City of St. Louis Susan Trautman, Great Rivers Greenway Technical Committee Chris Rimsky, Metro Don Roe, City of St. Louis Jessica Mefford-Miller, Metro John Posey, East-West Gateway Council of Governments Karin Hagaman, Cortex Kevin Lasater, Musick Construction Lubna Shoaib, East-West Gateway Council of Governments Mark Vogl, Great Rivers Greenway Tim Alexander, St. Louis Regional Chamber ii | Page CENTRAL CORRIDOR TRANSIT ACCESS STUDY Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................... ii Project Management Team .................................................................... ii Advisory Committee ............................................................................... ii Technical Committee .............................................................................. ii List of Figures ............................................................................................ v List of Tables ............................................................................................. vi Executive Summary ................................................................................. vii Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 Study Process ........................................................................................... 3 Evaluation Criteria ..................................................................................... 5 Alternative 1 – No Build ............................................................................. 6 Ridership ............................................................................................... 6 Alternative 2 – New MetroLink Station in Cortex ....................................... 9 Concept Development ........................................................................... 9 Recommended Station Design ............................................................ 13 Ridership ............................................................................................. 18 Transit Operations ............................................................................... 23 Capital and Operating Costs ............................................................... 24 Alternative 3 – Relocate Transit Center to Cortex ................................... 27 Concept Development ......................................................................... 27 Transit User Experience ...................................................................... 29 Capital and Operating Costs ............................................................... 31 Ridership ............................................................................................. 36 Alternative 4 – Upgrade Central West End Station ................................. 39 Concept Development ......................................................................... 40 Ridership ............................................................................................. 44 Transit User Experience ...................................................................... 44 Capital and Operating Costs ............................................................... 47 iii | Page CENTRAL CORRIDOR TRANSIT ACCESS STUDY Findings and Conclusion ......................................................................... 49 Comparative Evaluation ....................................................................... 49 Goal 1 ............................................................................................... 49 Goal 2 ............................................................................................... 50 Increased Ridership ......................................................................... 51 Transit User Experience/Transit Operational Impacts ...................... 51 Non-Quantifiable Benefits ................................................................ 51 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 52 APPENDIX .............................................................................................. 54 Appendix A: Population and Employment Forecasting Methodology .. 55 Employment & Population Data Sources ......................................... 55 Assumptions ..................................................................................... 56 Determining Net New Employment Growth ...................................... 58 Employment Projections .................................................................. 61 Population Projections ..................................................................... 64 Employment and Population Projection Summary ........................... 68 Comparisons with Regional Employment Patterns .......................... 71 Appendix B: Transit Ridership Forecasting Methodology .................... 73 Calibration Targets ........................................................................... 73 Model Inputs ..................................................................................... 75 Ridership Calibration ........................................................................ 78 Study Area Calibration ..................................................................... 81 Final Calibration Results .................................................................. 82 Appendix C: Cost Estimates ................................................................ 87 Appendix D: Financing ......................................................................... 88 iv | Page CENTRAL CORRIDOR TRANSIT ACCESS STUDY List of Figures Figure 1: Project Study Area ..................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Central West End Transit Center Boardings .............................. 6 Figure 3: Central West End Transit Center Boardings by MetroBus Route .................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 4: Cortex Station Platform Locations Considered .......................... 9 Figure 5: Forecasted 2035 Employment Density .................................... 12 Figure 6: Proposed Cortex Station Schematic Design ............................ 15 Figure 7: Proposed Cortex Station Parcel Map ....................................... 16 Figure 8: 2015 Forecasted MetroLink Walk Access Weekday Boardings by Origin/Destination ............................................................................... 20 Figure 9: Potential Transit Center Sites .................................................. 28 Figure 10: Post-Screening Cortex Transit Center Sites .......................... 29 Figure 11: MetroBus Route Deviations Site 1 ......................................... 35 Figure 12: MetroBus Route Deviations Site 3 ......................................... 36 Figure 13: Alternative 4 Option 1 Concept to Add a Second (Westbound) Platform ................................................................................................... 41 Figure 14: Alternative 4 Option 2 Concept to Extend Existing Platform .. 43 Figure 15: Central West End MetroLink Platform Level of Service ......... 47 Figure 16: Alternative 2 Potential Implementation Timeline .................... 53 v | Page CENTRAL CORRIDOR TRANSIT ACCESS STUDY List of Tables Table 1: Alternative 1 Central West End MetroLink Station Forecasted Weekday Boardings .................................................................................. 8 Table 2: Alternative 2 Cortex Station Forecasted Weekday Boardings ... 18 Table 3: Alternative 2 Forecasted Net New MetroLink Weekday Boardings Systemwide ............................................................................ 22 Table 4: Alternative 2 Cortex Station Walk Access Weekday Boardings Forecast Comparison .............................................................................. 23 Table 5: Proposed Cortex Station Opinion of Probable Capital Costs .... 24 Table 6: Proposed Cortex Station Estimated Annual Operating Costs ... 26 Table 7: Walking Environment Between Potential Transit Center Sites and Cortex MetroLink Station .................................................................. 30 Table 8: Diverted MetroBus Service Increased Operating Costs ............ 33 Table 9: Diverted MetroBus Service Changes in Travel Time ................. 35 Table 10: Central West End Transit Center Weekday Ridership Survey 38 Table