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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Carry That Weight Improving European Strategic Airlift Capabilities Katia Vlachos-Dengler This document was submitted as a dissertation in March 2007 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Stuart Johnson (Chair), Mark Lorell, and Greg Treverton. The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE This dissertation addresses the problem of the shortfall between the strategic airlift capabilities which European Union requires if it is to fulfill the ambition to be a credible security actor and the capabilities available to the major European nations individually and collectively. It does so by identifying and describing the key factors that influence decision-making on strategic airlift capabilities, in the context of various policy options for doing so, as well as the barriers to the implementation of the most cost-effective among the various options available. A key assertion of this dissertation is that pooling of resources is the most cost-effective way to address airlift capability shortfalls in a restrictive budgetary environment, but also the most politically challenging to implement. Improving European strategic airlift capabilities has received significant attention in recent years in the context of NATO and the European Union. This research aims at contributing to the debate and should be of interest to policymakers concerned with improving European defense capabilities, as well as to academics and researchers addressing that issue. iii CONTENTS Preface............................................................................................................... iii List of Tables......................................................................................................ix Acknowledgments...............................................................................................x CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION I. The Policy Problem......................................................................................... 1 II. Research Objectives, Scope and Approach .................................................. 6 1. Objectives and Research Questions........................................................ 6 2. Scope....................................................................................................... 7 3. Approach.................................................................................................. 8 4. Structure – Chapter Outline ..................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO: BACKGROUND AND KEY ISSUES I. European Security and Defense Policy and a European Rapid Reaction Force .......................................................................................................... 10 II. European Strategic Airlift: Capability Issues ............................................... 16 III. European Strategic Airlift: Budgetary Issues............................................... 23 IV. European Strategic Airlift: Political and Related Issues.............................. 24 V. Review of Previous Research on European Strategic Airlift .................... 26 1. Research literature on the topic and related areas .................................. 27 a. What is the status of European strategic airlift capabilities? ................ 27 b. What policy options are available for improving strategic airlift capabilities? Are multinational/pooling solutions more cost-effective than other available options?................................................................................................ 29 Multinational/pooling options ................................................................ 30 General advantages and drawbacks of multinational arrangements ... 31 Examples of pooling ............................................................................. 35 2. Summary of what is known and not known about European strategic airlift capabilities ............................................................................................... 37 CHAPTER THREE: FACTORS AFFECTING STRATEGIC AIRLIFT DECISION-MAKING - METHODOLOGY I. Review of Previous Methodologies.............................................................. 38 1. Overview and assessment of the research literature on methodologies for analyzing factors that influence decisions on strategic airlift capabilities. 38 a. Calculation of European strategic airlift requirements.......................... 38 b. Methodologies used to evaluate policy options for improving airlift capabilities ................................................................................................................. 47 Literature on Europe............................................................................. 47 Literature on the United States............................................................. 49 Broader literature on evaluating multinational options ......................... 51 Joint forces........................................................................................... 58 Alliances and new institutional economics ........................................... 59 2. Summary of what is known and not known about the methodologies to analyze factors that affect strategic airlift decision-making and to evaluate relevant policy options...................................................................................................... 60 iv II. Approach...................................................................................................... 61 1. Research Objectives and Hypotheses ..................................................... 61 2. Methodology – Key Steps ........................................................................ 62 STEP 1: Establish a European strategic airlift requirement ..................... 62 SUB-STEP 1a: Project strategic airlift capacity available in 2015......... 63 STEP 2: Develop a framework for assessing key factors influencing decision- making on airlift acquisition and use it to evaluate policy options available for fulfilling the European strategic airlift requirement ................................... 64 National Options................................................................................... 65 Multinational Options............................................................................ 65 Option Evaluation................................................................................. 65 Economic Factors: Cost Trends ........................................................ 66 Non-economic Factors ...................................................................... 68 Evaluating Collective Options: the Economics of Pooling ................. 70 STEP 3: Summarize findings and draw conclusions................................ 72 CHAPTER FOUR: FACTORS AFFECTING STRATEGIC AIRLIFT DECISION-MAKING - APPLICATION STEP 1: Establish a European Strategic