SOLARIUM STRATEGY SERIES Beyond Bullets: JUNE 2009 A Pragmatic Strategy to Combat Violent Islamist Extremism By Kristin M. Lord, John A. Nagl, Seth D. Rosen Acknowledgements The editors thank the scholars who contributed their time and effort to writing chapters for this volume. We would like to particularly thank James N. Miller and Alice E. Hunt, who contributed greatly to both the process and substance of this effort. We would also like to acknowledge the contributions of Michèle A. Flournoy, Kurt M. Campbell, Sharon Burke, Shawn Brimley, Aidan Kirby, Brian Burton, Daniel Byman, Tom Ricks, Andrew Exum, Robert Kaplan, Nirav Patel, Michael Zubrow, Alexis Albion, Andrew Loomis, Nick Masellis, Christine Parthemore, Lindsey Ford, Ahmed Humayun and Laura Stroh. Finally, we would like to thank Whitney Parker for her assistance in the production of this volume. Cover Image A U.S. Marine provides first aid care for an Afghan man during a patrol through the Helmand province in southern Afghanistan in August 2008. Photo courtesy of U.S Department of Defense; Cpl. Alex C. Guerra, U.S. Marine Corps. TABLE OF CONTENTS Beyond Bullets: A Pragmatic Strategy to Combat Violent Islamist Extremism Introduction 3 America’s Response to Violent Islamist Extremism 5 Evolving Adversaries 8 The Way Forward 12 Ways and Means 20 Ends, Ways, and Means: A Pragmatic 27 Strategy to Combat Violent Extremism Endnotes 28 Appendix A: Solarium II Experts 31 JUNE 2009 Beyond Bullets: A Pragmatic Strategy to Combat Violent Islamist Extremism By Kristin M. Lord, John A. Nagl, Seth D. Rosen About the Authors Kristin M. Lord is vice president and director of studies at Seth D. Rosen is a Joseph S. Nye intern at the Center the Center for a New American Security. for a New American Security and a graduate student at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program. John A. Nagl is president of the Center for a New American Security and served as an armor officer in the U.S. Army for 20 years. Beyond Bullets: JUNE 2009 A Pragmatic Strategy to Combat Violent Islamist Extremism About the Solarium Strategy Series The CNAS Solarium Strategy Series draws its name and inspiration from an effort undertaken by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953. The original Project Solarium was a competitive strategy development process that is credited with helping articulate several pillars of American Cold War strategy. Through a similarly structured process of inclusive debate and extensive analysis, CNAS has developed several strategy documents that are designed to serve as useful inputs to the broader national debate over U.S. national security in the post-September 11 era. They are available online at www.cnas.org. 2 | BEYOND BULLETS: Introduction A PraGmaTIC STraTEGY TO COMBAT Violent Islamist extremism will remain a VIOLENT IslamIST EXTREMISM potent threat to American national security for the foreseeable future. Nearly eight years after the September 11 attacks, al Qaeda retains the capability to launch devastating attacks around the globe, and President Obama has warned publicly that the organization is planning attacks on American soil. 1 Catastrophic terrorism — employing chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons — is a remote but grave risk. Beyond U.S. borders, American interests, including American allies, institutions, and citizens, remain likely targets. From Pakistan to Somalia, a com- plex assortment of Islamist extremists threatens to destabilize whole countries or regions, potentially unleashing political turmoil, economic distress, and widespread violence. These threats are likely to persist, challenging the United States and its allies throughout the Obama administration and beyond. By Kristin M. Lord, John A. Nagl, Seth D. Rosen To protect vital American interests, our country needs a pragmatic and comprehensive strategy that works to eliminate al Qaeda as a function- ing organization and undermines violent Islamist extremism in its many forms. As other national security concerns proliferate, America must re-commit to countering violent extremism by employing an approach that is sustainable, prop- erly resourced, grounded in bipartisan political support, and bolstered by a dense network of partnerships that engages actors both inside and outside of government. This strategy must pro- vide broad strategic direction as well as a coherent roadmap to guide government-wide planning, day- to-day decision making, and budgeting. American policy and its implementation are already mov- ing in the right direction, a process that started in the later years of the Bush administration and now has a new chance for success in the Obama administration. | 3 Beyond Bullets: JUNE 2009 A Pragmatic Strategy to Combat Violent Islamist Extremism An effective strategy will engage all appropriate States must find a new way to combat violent instruments of national power in a cohesive vision extremism that more effectively engages foreign for action: military and moral, diplomatic and partners and actors outside of government. Some economic, intelligence and informational. It must control will be lost. But that loss will be repaid, thwart the conditions that nurture violent Islamist many times over, by increased effectiveness. The extremism and work to prevent the recruitment of United States must adapt its role to circumstance, the next generation of extremists. It must discredit being sometimes a leader, sometimes a quiet the movement’s methods and undermine its cred- supporter, sometimes the coordinator of diverse ibility, while strengthening the ability of those best actors, and sometimes the determined projector of positioned to challenge these organizations and force. America needs all of these capacities to effec- ideologies. And it must recognize the variety of tively confront violent extremism. In developing motivations and interests that distinguish violent them, the U.S. government will create the expertise extremist groups, as well as the ideological and and networks necessary to protect America against organizational threads that pull them together. a range of transnational challenges, from nuclear proliferation to transnational crime, pandemic influenza to cyber security. “America’s government Despite the all-too-real menace posed by violent and armed forces cannot Islamist extremism, America must respond with- out overstating the threat, overspending national and should not be at resources, reacting in ways that are ultimately counterproductive, or compromising core values. the center of every Violent extremism will not be the only threat to American security in the coming years. A reac- effort to combat violent tion that compromises America’s moral authority extremism.” undercuts its power. And, perversely, the threat will become all the more potent if it is exaggerated. The more time that passes without an attack on America’s government and armed forces cannot American soil, the more this threat will test the and should not be at the center of every effort to commitment of American leaders and the nation’s combat violent extremism. They cannot be all collective patience. The struggle with violent places at all times and, in many instances, less Islamist extremism is likely to be long, with neither direct measures are more effective. To kill and a formal declaration of victory from U.S. leaders capture terrorists, foreign intelligence services, nor an acknowledgment of defeat by adversaries. militaries, and police forces must often lead. To Thus, this strategy calls on America’s leaders and foster environments hostile to violent extremism, the American public to put the threat of terrorism civilians and civilian organizations must assume and violent extremism in proper perspective and to greater responsibility and strengthen their capac- sustain the will necessary to confront this threat. ity. To gain a more nuanced understanding of the At a time of abundant challenges — economic, communities in which violent extremists thrive, environmental, and security — this will be politi- the U.S. must draw more effectively on experts cally difficult. But to suppress violent extremism, outside of the government. In short, the United America must gather the political will to take the 4 | threat seriously, mobilize a coherent and unified when policy makers adopted a less aggressive response, and sustain the public support necessary tone and emphasized the utility of non-military to win a long and wearying struggle. instruments of national power to combat vio- lent extremism. Under President Obama, U.S. This paper seeks to support this effort counterterrorism strategy has entered still a new by presenting: chapter, one that continues some of the previous • A chronology of America’s evolving response to administration’s policies while breaking sharply violent Islamist extremism from others. • A clear analysis of the threat • Strategic principles to guide U.S. actions “ The United States • A realistic vision of success must adapt its role to • A comprehensive plan — involving intelligence, diplomacy, military operations, strategic public circumstance, being engagement, law enforcement, finance and devel- opment, and homeland defense — to achieve sometimes a leader, U.S. objectives. sometimes a quiet The strategy presented here draws from a com- petitive policy analysis led by the Center for a supporter, sometimes the New American Security (CNAS). Modeled after coordinator of diverse President Eisenhower’s Project Solarium, CNAS asked five experts to examine the threat