NNoottee ddee ll’’IIffrrii __________________________ Ghana and the Oil Sector: Beyond the Resource Curse? __________________________ Mathieu PELLERIN September 2015 This study has been realized within the partnership between the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and OCP Policy Center The French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. Headed by Thierry de Montbrial since its founding in 1979, Ifri is a non- governmental and a non-profit organization. As an independent think tank, Ifri sets its own research agenda, publishing its findings regularly for a global audience. Using an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together political and economic decision-makers, researchers and internationally renowned experts to animate its debate and research activities. With offices in Paris and Brussels, Ifri stands out as one of the rare French think tanks to have positioned itself at the very heart of European debate. OCP Policy Center is a Moroccan policy-oriented think tank whose mission is to contribute to knowledge sharing and to enrich reflection on key economic and international relations issues, considered as essential to the economic and social development of Morocco, and more broadly to the African continent. For this purpose, the think tank relies on independent research, a network of partners and leading research associates, in the spirit of an open exchange and debate platform. By offering a "Southern perspective" from a middle-income African country, on major international debates and strategic challenges that the developing and emerging countries are facing, OCP Policy Center aims to make a meaningful contribution to four thematic areas: agriculture, environment and food security; economic and social development; commodity economics and finance; and “Global Morocco”, a program dedicated to understanding key strategic regional and global evolutions shaping the future of Morocco. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s alone and do not reflect the official views of their institutions. ISBN: 978-2-36567-549-9 © All rights reserved, Ifri, 2015 Ifri Ifri-Bruxelles 27, rue de la Procession Rue Marie-Thérèse, 21 75740 Paris Cedex 15 – FRANCE 1000 – Bruxelles – BELGIUM Tél. : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00 Tél. : +32 (0)2 238 51 10 Fax : +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 Fax : +32 (0)2 238 51 15 Email : [email protected] Email : [email protected] Website : Ifri.org Author Mathieu Pellerin is a research associate at Subsaharan Africa programme of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), and runs the Centre d'Intelligence Stratégique sur le Continent Africain (CISCA). His analytical studies on country risks and economic intelligence in Africa is destined to large French and international companies and institutions. He mainly focuses on the Sahel region (Mali, Niger, Libya and Mauritania) as well as Madagascar and Ghana, and he works on cross-cutting dynamics: counter-terrorism, the geopolitics of conflict, Sino-African synergies, corporate social responsibility, etc. He is also the deputy editor of the Security & Strategy review (Sécurité & Stratégie). He holds a Masters degree in Economic Intelligence from the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and a Masters in African Studies from the Sorbonne University. He has worked with Risk & Co – an economic intelligence consultancy group – as well as within the Africa and Indian Ocean department of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Additionnally, he worked for Total and he was part of the NGO Green in Madagascar. 1 © Ifri Summary Four years after the Jubilee block went into production, we can make an initial assessment of the governance of Ghana’s oil resources. In terms of its institutional structure, Ghana is seen as a model for the entire continent. This structure is certainly not an empty shell and serves as an effective regulator for this strategic sector and, singularly, for the use of oil revenues. Although this framework clearly has its limitations, as highlighted in this paper, the balance sheet is a positive one and there have been notable improvements since 2011. The relative success of this governance is a direct consequence of Ghana’s political maturity. This is evidenced by the preeminent role played by Parliament and civil society in formulating, implementing, monitoring and continuously improving this framework for governance. Conditions seem to be reunited for Ghana to transform its oil potential into opportunities for success. However, this is not the case, and this is due to economic obstacles as much as a Ghanaian sense of desilusion concerning oil exploitation and the benefits thereof. 2 © Ifri Contents INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 4 AN EXPERT AND INFLUENTIAL CIVIL SOCIETY ........................................ 8 GHANAIAN INSTITUTIONAL MODEL ...................................................... 13 Regulation of Ghana’s oil sector ............................................. 13 A monitoring role for the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) ............................................ 16 ALLOCATION AND MANAGEMENT OF OIL REVENUES ............................ 19 Is there a "Ghanaian model"? .................................................. 19 Allocation of expenditure: a lack of strategic planning ......... 24 Ghana’s legal framework ...................................................... 24 Oil versus infrastructure........................................................ 26 Opaque and ineffective expenditure ..................................... 28 SOCIETAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL REPERCUSSIONS OF OIL PRODUCTION IN GHANA ......................................................................................... 32 Managing the environmental impact ....................................... 32 Managing the societal impact .................................................. 34 Hopes and limitations of "local content" ................................ 38 The oil companies’ contribution under their RSE policy ....... 41 CONCLUSION .................................................................................... 45 3 © Ifri Introduction In an article published in 2011, we introduced Ghana as a country standing "at a historic crossroads, facing the twin challenges of democratic consolidation and responsible use of its oil revenues". We also stated that "the task would be all the harder in view of the fact that each of these challenges would influence the other one, since adhering to liberal democratic principles was a pledge of good governance of its oil revenues, and Ghana’s admission to the club of oil-producing countries could weaken these democratic principles, thus consolidating the economic positions of predatory elites".1 Although this statement is still relevant today, Ghana’s situation is no longer the same. The country overcame the death of President John Atta-Mills in July 2012. In compliance with the Ghanaian Constitution, John Dramani Mahama – the Vice-President at that time – replaced John Atta-Milss after being elected in December 2012 with 50.7% of the votes. Ghana’s democracy was shaken when the results were disputed by Nana Akufo-Addo, his National Democratic Congress (NDC) rival, until the Supreme Court dismissed the allegations of electoral fraud in September 2013. In this way Ghana has consolidated its status as a democratic model and retained the characteristics of a liberal democracy, 2 with a civil society composed of a strong Parliament and solid institutions acting as a safeguard, preserving the democratic steps achieved since the election of Jerry Rawlings in 1992. Yet, the fact that there is a permanent corruption, that some institutions lack independence, and that partisan interference is tangible within the institutional game (currently by the party in power, the NDC) means that the Ghanaian state is fragile, and its ability to ward off the Resource Curse (whereby countries which are rich in mineral resources become poorer) is questionable.3 In a recent article, Dominik Kopinski was 1. M. Pellerin, "Ghanaian Democracy and the Oil Challenge" (« La démocratie ghanéenne face au défi pétrolier »), Notes de l'Ifri, September 2011. 2. Defined as a political system based on democratic norms and values. See L. Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy. The Struggle to Build Free Societies throughout the World, New York, Times Books, 2008. 3. This expression was first used by Richard Auty in 1990. See R. Auty, Resource-Based Industrialization: Sowing the Oil in Eight Developing Countries, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1990. This theory is based on the observation that there is a negative correlation between the proportion of raw material exports in a country’s GDP and its growth rate. This correlation has in fact been verified 4 © Ifri M. Pellerin / Ghana and the Oil Sector optimistic about Ghana’s ability to overcome this scourge, basing his analysis on three premises that should allow oil production to be a growth accelerator for Ghana: the weight of civil society, the institutionalisation of a democratic process, and the predictability of Ghana’s economic performances. In his view "the curse should be perceived more as a treatable disease".4 Even more recently, in 2014, John. R. Heilbrunn considered that Ghana was one of the foremost African nations which were in a position to avoid the Resource Curse, arguing that democracy