NIGERIA PEACE AND SECURITY WORKING GROUP Adamawa State Elections Scenarios and Recommendations Draft Produced 17 December 2014 Disclaimer: The following analysis is based on discussions with State-level actors and so reflects their perceptions, not the view of the Peace and Security Working Group. These scenarios were produced prior to the 2014 primary elections and are thus subject to change. Where relevant, updates have been made to reflect evolving dynamics. Adamawa At-a-Glance Current Governor James Bala Ngilari Current Ruling Party Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Key February 2015 Elections Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate and State House of Assembly Prognosis Adamawa State is identified as a high level risk state (Red Category) in CLEEN’s latest report. Figure 1: CLEEN Map of Hot Spots for Election Violence Abia Violence Data Adamawa State Violence (Average NW and ACLED) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fatalities Incidents Figure 2: Peace Map (www.p4p-nigerdelta.org) Figure 3: Violence Heat Map Jan 2009-Dec 2014 1 ADAMAWA STATE ELECTION VIOLENCE SCENARIO Political Developments in Adamawa Adamawa State is one of the states in the North- East of Nigeria. Since its creation in 1991, Adamawa State was administered by eight governors, four of them military administrators. The first civilian governor of the state, Alhaji Abubakar Saleh Michika, was elected on the platform of the National Republican Convention (NRC). Michika governed the state from 2nd January 1992 – 17th November, 1993 in opposition to the predominant Social Democratic Party that won the 12th June 1993 presidential election that was annulled. After years of military interregnum, Boni Haruna of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ruled from 29th May 1999 – 29th April 2007, a period that launched Adamawa into the mainstream of national politics for being in the ruling party. Murtala Nyako continued to extend the PDP rule from 29th May 2007 – 26th February, 2008; and 29th April 2008 – 15th July, 2014. Nyako’s rule was briefly punctuated by a tribunal judgment that annulled the election which paved way for James Barka (26th February, 2008 – 29th April, 2008) as Acting Governor. Murtala Nyako’s second term was also briefly punctuated when Alhaji Umaru Fintiri became the Acting Governor from 27th January, 2012 to 8th February, 2012. The recent defection of Governor Nyako to the All Progressives Congress in November 2013 and developments thereafter led to his impeachment on 15th July 2014 and subsequent emergence of Alhaji Umaru Fintiri, erstwhile speaker of the Adamawa State House of Assembly as Acting Governor for the second time. A Federal High Court ruled on 8th October 2014 in Abuja that Nyako’s former deputy Bala James Ngilari who never decamped to the APC did not resign his appointment. Ngilari was immediately sworn in as governor to complete the remaining period. From these developments, a number of important lessons could be discerned in the politics of Adamawa State which is characterized by (i) keen contest between political parties e.g. the annulment of Nyako’s election and the conduct of fresh elections thereafter, (ii) intra party squabbles that is characterized by poor relations between the legislature and executive leading to Governor Nyako’s impeachment on July 15th 2014, and (iii) power swing towards and away from the central government evidenced by the state being controlled even if briefly by NRC and APC (opposition parties) and PDP (ruling party) contrary to the situation in neighbouring states like Bauchi and Taraba that have consistently been politically identified with the central government. The swearing-in of Bala Ngilari as the governor of Adamawa, no doubt unexpectedly came with new challenges namely, the cancellation of the governorship bye-election in the State. The APC believes that this development was manipulated by the ruling PDP for fear of defeat and so the swearing-in of Bala Ngilari as governor only amounts to postponing the possibility of APC taking back the State in February 2015. Another challenge is the perceived disquiet within the PDP between the supporters of Ngilari the new governor and the former acting governor Ahmadu Fintiri who has already filed an appeal. Both parties are from the same local government area, Madagali. However Ngilari is a Christian while Fintiri is a Muslim. This could introduce a religious dimension to intra party politics of PDP in the State. A state of emergency was in place from May 2013 until 20th November 2014. This was not renewed and so Adamawa is no longer officially under a state of emergency. 2 ADAMAWA STATE ELECTION VIOLENCE SCENARIO Elections in 2011 According to the results collated from the 21 local government areas of the state, Murtala Nyako reclaimed his governorship seat. The ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party’s candidate garnered 302, 986 votes to beat his Action Congress of Nigeria challenger, Markus Gundiri, who polled 260, 405 votes. The candidate of the Congress Progressive Change, Buba Marwa was only been able to win 107, 564 votes. Mr. Nyako won 13 out of 21 local governments while the CAN candidate prevailed in 8. By winning the majority of the votes and 25% of votes in two-thirds of the local government areas of the state, Mr. Nyako fulfilled the constitutional requirements to be pronounced winner. Following the April 2011 presidential voting, according to Human Rights Watch, more than 800 people were reported dead in a three-day riot in 12 northern states of the country, including Adamawa. The violence began with widespread protests by the supporters of the main opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim from the Congress for progressive Change, following the re-election of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the Niger-Delta in the South, who was the candidate for the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party. The protests degenerated into violent riots or sectarian killings in the northern states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. In Adamawa State, some citizens were up in arms against the state government in Madagali and Mubi local government areas as well as Yola metropolis. Women and girls particularly vulnerable to sexual violence during violence, including some cases of security agents deployed to keep the peace raping women. Some traditional rulers left their areas for fear of attack when violence happened Security needs of people with disabilities not addressed at all and their voices and experiences not known or integrated into state response and analysis of election violence Key Political Developments Since 2011 Abia State is currently controlled by the PDP. Opposition parties in the state like PPA, APC, APGA and Labor party have very little influence. Executive has influence over the judiciary, State House of Assembly, and religious institutions. The wife and son of the Governor are key political players, with influence on the state machinery. The Governor’s term is running out, so he positioning to run for senate in Abia Central and to select his successor. A serving minster of the Federal Republic of Nigeria resigned and joined the Governorship race as a PDP candidate. The PDP and the Governor zoned the Governorship slot to Abia south Senatorial Zone thereby disfranchising the Ngwa extraction from the Abia central Senatorial zone. There have continued to be ongoing tensions among the Ukwa Ngwa clan who believe that by handing over power to the Abia South Senatorial zone, the Ngwa people in the local councils of Abia Central would then be shut out of the PDP race completely. The ruling party was perceived to have hijacked the PVC/CVR exercise conducted by INEC, precluding many from collecting their voter’s cards. A major political event was the sacking of non-indigene in the state civil service by the present Government. Many were later reinstated when the issue became controversial. 3 ADAMAWA STATE ELECTION VIOLENCE SCENARIO There has been no Local Government election since 2007; Local Governments have been run by a caretaker committee with members appointed by the Governor, leading to generalized frustration by residents lacking political representation at the LG level. Factors causing election violence Political agitation of the north calling for return to power to complete late Pres. Yar’Adua’s tenure in office and so for Buhari to win presidency over GEJ Christian-Muslim religious differences Intra and Inter-Political Party differences between PDP and APC Response Deployment of security agents to restore peace Mass arrest of people around area of violence and suspected perpetrators Relief materials by NEMA Civil society provided relief materials and have been doing peacebuilding work, including on inter-religious harmony and co-existence Federal Government assisted victims of the post 2011 election with the sum of N420Million Naira. To some extent, response mitigated elongation and escalation of violence in affected communities and contained conflict from spreading to neighboring states However, root causes of conflict still not addressed and relief provided insufficient to meet needs Developments between 2011– 2014 Merger of opposition party to form APC triggered mass exodus from PDP to APC The defection of Governor Nayko (A Muslim) to APC in November 2013 and other developments thereafter, led to his impeachment in July 2014. Alhaji Umaru Fintiri (A Christian), erstwhile speaker of the Adamawa State House of Assembly emerged as the acting governor for the second time following Nyako’s impeachment. In October, 2014 a Federal High Court stopped the Adamawa State Bye-Election and ruled that Nyako’s former deputy Bala James Ngilari, who never decamped to the APC, never resigned his appointment. Ngilari was immediately sworn in as Governor to complete the remaining period. Following the just concluded gubernatorial primaries which held in Abuja, the former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Nuhu Ribadu emerged as the winner of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) The emergence of Ribadu as the winner continues to feed discontent in the party.