PHE-ETHIOPIA CONSORTIUM A Resource Base and Climate Change Risk Maps for Awash National Park Tezera Chernet ERCAND Consult 2015, Addis Ababa Financed by the SCIP Fund: the SCIP Fund is financed by the Governments of the United Kingdom (UK), Norway and Denmark. Table of Contents Table of Contents ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................... VI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................. VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... VIII 1. OVERVIEW OF AWASH NATIONAL PARK ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OBJECTIVE........................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. THE STUDY AREAS ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3.1 Location ................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3.2 Topography ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.3 Soil ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.4 Water Resources and drainage ............................................................................................................. 4 1.3.5 Brief History of the Awash National park .............................................................................................. 4 2. LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Data set ................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 Preprocessing of Images ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Image Classification for land use and land cover mapping ................................................................... 6 2.1.5 Land cover change detection ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.6 Identification of change drivers ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1.7 Materials and tools ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Present Vegetation types ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Description of present land cover ......................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Land use / cover changes .................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.4 Drivers of Land cover Change .............................................................................................................. 12 3. WILD ANIMALS HABITAT MAPPING ........................................................................................................... 13 3.1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Habitat assessment and mapping ....................................................................................................... 13 3.2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Bio-Diversity of Awash National Park ................................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 Trends in Number of Wild-animal Population ..................................................................................... 16 3.2.3 Habitat Fragmentation ....................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.3.1 Deforestation and Degradation ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.3.1.1 Expansion of Cultivated Land ................................................................................................................ 18 3.2.3.1.2 Competition from Grazing by Domestic Animals ................................................................................... 19 3.2.3.1.3 Collection of Fuel and construction wood ............................................................................................. 19 3.2.3.2 Infrastructure development .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.3.3 Impacts of Fragmentation ............................................................................................................................. 20 3.2.4 Other Pressures ................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4.1 Road Kill ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.4.2 Alien Invasive Species .................................................................................................................................... 22 4. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK PROFILES ............................................................................................................... 23 ERCAND Consult Page ii Table of Contents 4.1 OBJECTIVE...................................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 23 4.2.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................................. 23 4.2.2.1 Fire hazard Assessment ................................................................................................................................. 24 4.2.2.2 Drought hazard Assessment .......................................................................................................................... 26 4.2.2.3 Flood hazard Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 27 4.2.3 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 28 4.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.1 Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 28 4.3.1.1 The Present Climate of ANP .......................................................................................................................... 28 4.3.1.2 The Future Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 30 4.3.2 Hazards Assessment ............................................................................................................................ 30 4.3.2.1 Fire Hazard .................................................................................................................................................... 30 4.3.2.1.1 Fire Frequency ....................................................................................................................................... 30 4.3.2.1.2. Fire Prone Areas .................................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.2.2 Drought Hazard ............................................................................................................................................