UDC 327:355.1(1-071)(477) JEL code Z 18 No part of the book may be copied or reproduced without citing the source In this multi-authored monograph the scholars of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine present an unprecedented study of the phenomenon of the world hybrid war, which manifested itself in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The nature of the hybrid war was analyzed in the context of the global security crisis and was studied as a new type of global confrontation. This monograph is a complex analysis of the causes and preconditions of the Russian aggression against Ukraine with respect to the strategic purposes and special aspects of conduct in various dimensions including military, political, economic, social, humanitarian, and informational. This monograph also presents research of the local success of our country in resisting the hostile plans of the Russian Federation in certain areas. The conclusion reached by this study is that Ukraine is capable of fighting against an aggressor for her sovereignty. The reformation of international security institutions and attainment of balance of power in the new hybrid reality are also addressed in the monograph. This book is meant for politicians, political analysts, senior government officials and scientists in the field of security studies. The research results would also be interesting for academia, representatives of civil society, as well as patriotic and responsible citizens. Ukrainian institute for the future is independent think tank founded in 2016 which works on reports, forecasts and analytics on key issues of Ukrainian development. UIF mission is designing of a successful future for Ukraine, through expert studies and discussions that will promote and contribute the adoption of high-quality political decisions both in Ukrainian and international politics. UIF has expertise in: foreign policy, national security, defense, economics, infrastructure and education. The World Hybrid War: Ukrainian Forefront: monograph abridged and translated from ukrainian / Volodymyr Horbulin. — Kharkiv: Folio, 2017. — 158 p. Translated into English by Julia Lugovska, Anna Krapivnik, Rami Shultz The design used a fragment of the image Marionettes Figures (File ID3505384, License Royalty Free of the National Institute For Strategic Studies) © Julia Lugovska, Anna Krapivnik, ISBN 978-966-03-7830-8 (Folio) Rami Shultz, translated into English, 2017 ISBN 978-966-554-273-5 (NISS) © National Institute for Strategic Studies, 2017 CONTENTS FOREWORD ..........................................................................................5 SOURCES OF HYBRID WAR Chapter 1. RUSSIA’S GEOPOLITICAL MESSAGE OF DEFIANCE ..................13 1.1. Confrontation with the West ............................................................ 13 1.2. Victims of Russian hybrid aggression .............................................. 20 1.3. Strategic purposes of Russian hybrid aggression against Ukraine ..... 25 DISTINCTIVE FEATURES OF RUSSIA’S HYBRID WAR AGAINST UKRAINE Chapter 2. WAR ON HOMELAND FRONTLINES ............................................. 35 2.1. Instruments of political influence .................................................... 35 2.2. Media support of hybrid war ............................................................40 Chapter 3. SPECIAL AND DIPLOMATIC OPERATIONS .................................. 45 3.1. Russian secret services activities in Ukraine .....................................45 3.2. Diplomatic cover for hybrid aggression ............................................ 52 Chapter 4. ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF HYBRID AGGRESSION ................. 59 4.1. Trade warfare as an instrument of economic pressure ...................... 59 4.2. ”Energy weapon” in the context of hybrid war ................................. 68 HYBRID WAR AND HYBRID WORLD Chapter 5. WORLD REACTION TO THE RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE ......................................................................... 81 5.1. Role of international security organizations and forums ................... 81 5.2. Economic sanctions policy .............................................................. 88 5.3. Activation of radical and anti-Europe forces in support of Russia ... 100 5.4. Minsk process in the light of world politics .....................................104 THE WORLD HYBRID WAR: UKRAINIAN FOREFRONT 3 CONTENTS Chapter 6. OUTLINES OF NEW REALITY ........................................................117 6.1. Destruction of the international security system..............................117 6.2. World facing challenges of global Russian propaganda ................... 128 6.3. New balance of power and search for international legal security formulas ....................................................................133 SUMMARY ........................................................................................139 GLOSSARY .........................................................................................156 4 NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES FOREWORD Battle on — and win your battle! God Himself will aid you! Taras Shevchenko Today mankind faces the challenge of hybrid wars, whether we like it or not. These wars will breed the new hybrid world or, to be more precise, the new hybrid world order. We must face these challenges earnestly and accept them as part of the new reality in which we live. Russian aggression against Ukraine became a starting point for the forma- tion of the new hybrid world order. This is not the portrayal of the situation in Ukraine from a Ukraine-centric point of view; instead, we’ve attempted to offer an objective view of the current state of affairs in Ukraine. Just as the as- sassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo released a spring of deep animosities and complicated processes that led to World War I, so the direct annexation of the Crimea carried out by Russia and its following actions in Donbas triggered the new world hybrid war. “There is nothing constant in this world but inconsistency,” wrote Jonathan Swift. The key problem of the current “processual moment” is that many peo- ple, including politicians, experts, scientists and journalists, still perceive the current state of affairs as something temporary in nature. They often han- dle and interpret it as something abnormal, or rather as a “transit phase” on the path to a fundamentally different, “better future”. More importantly, those who have destroyed the world order, which until recently seemed strong and inviolable, have similar thoughts: the Kremlin state apparatus with its political, intellectual and military establishment, can be considered as “elite” only rel- atively. In general, both Russia and the West are clearly ill-prepared to accept this new reality. Whether or not this is a consequence of the inability to comprehend the current moment or is the fear to accept it is another matter. “The real secrets become secrets not because nobody knows about them,” warned Carl THE WORLD HYBRID WAR: UKRAINIAN FOREFRONT 5 FOREWORD Gustav Jung, “but because nobody understands them”. Meanwhile, this hy- brid war, a sort of paramilitary aggression, is unique due to many parameters. These parameters include: the momentary and imaginative cause at the on- set of the war, deception, the near total moral decay and degradation of many citizens of the aggressor country, aggression that was sanctioned by the per- manent membership in the UN Security Council, and the creation of mass media support to legitimize actions. The application of these methods of “ac- tive mea sures” of political warfare have resulted in the consequences of untold proportions. The real trouble faced by the aggressor occurs when it attempts to put together the aims and methods of the hybrid “war of the future” with the world realities of the past. Russia is not solely responsible for the destruction of the old world order. Certainly its aggression against Ukraine (and earlier, against Georgia) became the direct cause of everything that is happening now; however, the West bears some responsibility for its policy of “washing its hands of the affair”. Western analysts are increasingly emphasizing the part the West has played. Peter Dickinson1, aptly noted how the majority of the Western media suddenly went blind as to who the aggressor was in the Ukrainian conflict and what to call the Russian occupation. Alternatively, journalists invented some new words and word combinations whose sole purpose was to avoid the direct naming of the Russian aggression. Perspectives similar to the beliefs held by Robert Kaplan were small solace when he said: “No matter how it would limit the possibilities of Ukraine, no matter how it would complicate the existence of the EU itself, neither the European Union nor NATO will bring Ukraine into the fold... [but] your future doesn’t look grim”. In the meantime, the Western media, with its liberal-democratic world- view and principles, became a victim of the new hybrid reality. Their attempt to approach the political scene in accordance with the democratic standards of peaceful and rational coexistence was ineffective. Meanwhile, Russia was at- tempting to “revalue democratic values” through the lens of its “sovereignty”. By anticipating the classic standards of journalism, which consist of demonstrat- ing at least two views for a given situation, they were able to consciously shift the “objectiveness point” and replace it with an elaborate and massive string of lies, thus turning