AMERICA’S RENAISSANCE OF HOPE Robin V. Sears Contributing Writer Robin Sears opens our cover package with an overview of the American political landscape, and how the remaining three candidates, McCain, Clinton and Obama represent a turning of the page from the failed presidency of George W.Bush. John McCain is an authentic maverick. With strong appeal for independent voters, he suddenly in 2008 became the choice of the Republican establishment, and represents whatever hopes the GOP has of retaining the White House. Hillary Clinton represents continuity as well as change, continuity with her husband’s presidency and change as a woman in the Oval Office. But it is Barack Obama, Sears writes, who represents America’s renaissance of hope. “Obama has changed everything,” he writes. “How did this happen?” Read on. Robin Sears propose une vue d’ensemble du paysage politique américain et explique en quoi les derniers candidats à la course à la Maison-Blanche — Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton et John McCain — incarnent tous trois un renouveau après la présidence défaillante de George W. Bush. Authentique rebelle, John McCain a toujours séduit les électeurs indépendants et est subitement devenu en 2008 le candidat de l’establishment républicain, qui fonde sur lui ses derniers espoirs de garder la Maison-Blanche. Première femme susceptible d’occuper le « bureau ovale », Hillary Clinton représente le changement mais aussi la continuité en tant qu’épouse d’un ancien président. Mais c’est Barack Obama, croit Robin Sears, qui incarne vraiment le retour de l’espoir aux États-Unis. « Obama a tout changé, note- t-il. Comment est-ce arrivé ? » Lisez son analyse. We’ve had some dark days in this democracy over the past seven Dwight Eisenhower — who takes the oath of office on years and today the sun is out. It is shining brightly. January 20, 2009, now depends on the closing chapters in Missouri Senator the most exciting election in half a century. Whether you Claire McCaskill think the astonishing roller coaster that is this election cycle is the most important election since 1932 or 1968 depends ecord low turnouts, historic high cynicism and deep on your partisanship, your generation and your preference despair about the future: that was the conventional for happy or sad endings. But there is no doubt that the R wisdom about American democracy little more than United States, its allies and its enemies are going to be chal- a year ago. At the nadir of the Bush presidency it seemed lenged by a very different White House with a very different impossible to predict a sunny future built on that stark lega- agenda in less than nine months. cy of failed war and diplomacy, corruption and recession. Yet with that confounding resilience American voters or the majority of centre-left Canadians the real trans- demonstrate at least once a generation, a coalition of voters F formation can come only from a Democratic president. in each party shook off that gloom, and demanded more. They will see a McCain presidency as a continuation of the They rejected conventional choices and backed transforma- Bush war machine. They could not be more wrong. tional candidates. Just as the voters in 1932, 1960 and 1980 This is a Republican with profound skepticism about chose “big candidates” to lead them out of a bleak status quo, the “military-industrial complex,” deep commitment to so their tough-minded grandchildren have placed three high- environmental change and genuine rage at the corruption ly heterodox candidates on the verge of power. There are les- that has oozed into too many parts of American public sons for Canadian democracy in this renaissance of hope. life. He is no liberal social reformer, but he will not be a Whether it is a black man, a woman or the most uncon- patsy for the pharmaceutical, defence and aerospace, ventional American Republican since their last war hero — automotive and health industries. George W. Bush liked 10 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MARS 2008 America’s renaissance of hope to compare himself to Teddy White House — populist in rhetoric, ed young white Americans, blacks Roosevelt, but McCain is closer to his incapable of coalition-building and a and independents. true heir: anti-establishment, bloody- failure at delivering change in the Although his fundraising success minded and seized of righteous party or the country. As it was almost was an early sign that his candidacy was indignation at the abuse of power — 20 years ago that Bill Clinton began not another Gene McCarthyesque/Ross- economic or military. An enemy of his transformation of the Democratic Perot style sideshow, it was the crowds the fundamentalist Christian hold on Party, it is easy to forget what a revolu- that horrified his competitors and the party, a realist on immigration tion that was. stunned even jaded observers. That, reform and a fiscal conservative who He and his small cadre of often combined with an adroit use of the attacked both the profligate spending young Southern “New Democrats” Internet and other new media, and a rock star charisma have From the thousands who came out on a sub-zero Springfield, turned this campaign upside Illinois, morning for his campaign launch last winter, to the down. more than 100,000 voters who surged into his events in the From the thousands who came out on a sub-zero six days before the Super Tuesday primaries a year later, Springfield, Illinois, morn- Obama’s supporters’ numbers and raw emotion are more ing for his campaign launch reminiscent of a Billy Graham crusade or an early Rolling last winter, to the more Stones tour than a political campaign. than 100,000 voters who surged into his events in the and the tax cuts for the rich of the broke the party’s addiction to stroking six days before the Super Tuesday pri- Bush administration, McCain is every political niche, no matter how maries a year later, Obama’s supporters’ determined to recapture the small, irrelevant or extreme. Military numbers and raw emotion are more Republican party from its hard-liners reform, welfare reform, tax reform, reminiscent of a Billy Graham crusade and their destructive excesses. bold trade agreements and pioneering or an early Rolling Stones tour than a Even on the war, some critics have efforts at introducing performance political campaign. failed to understand how different his measurement in the public sector were No amount of organization or approach will be from that of the Bush all legacies of this different approach money can draw 13,000 people to an administration. As a seasoned war vet- to centrist government. Many of the event in Boise, Idaho, on one night eran and former prisoner, he has little policy and political sects within the and 30,000 to Minneapolis the next. sympathy for political spin about party — protectionists, public sector After a slow start, his campaign is failed military strategy. While he trade unionists, tiermondistes — all saw beginning to develop organizational would not wind down the war as their power reduced and they remain chops that have bested the vaunted quickly as either Democrat would, nei- Clinton enemies today. Clinton machine. ther would he continue to support a The Clinton generation of leader- failed military strategy. He would push ship holds many of the key control ow did this happen? How did the Iraqis to decisions more aggressive- levers of the party at the state level to H this depressed and depressing ly and attempt to rebuild international this day. With control of both houses of political scene turn into some kind of support more sincerely. A McCain-led Congress, those regional allies will be a Hollywood miracle of resurrection and Iraq exit would probably be bloodier in formidable alliance for change. Clinton soaring expectation? the short term but more competently would move aggressively on health care, First, as Canadians, we might managed than anything seen in the infrastructure, education and tax reform, acknowledge how much more open humiliating past five years. and rebuilding international relations. the US presidential system is than our He is a conservative, yes; conven- Obama has changed everything, own lockstep manner of choosing who tional, no way. however. It is hard to find historic gets to be prime minister. Candidates comparisons to the disruptive who believe in a return to the gold hose seized of the Obama revolu- impact his insurgent candidacy has standard (Ron Paul), in the existence T tion will increasingly diss the had on the contours and traditional of flying saucers (Dennis Kucinich), in Billary choice as “same old, same old,” verities of the American political replacing income tax with a 23 percent pointing to the bare-knuckle triangu- landscape. Part Teddy Roosevelt, national GST and that God created lating style of the Clinton machine. part Henry Wallace, part Robert man 8,000 years ago (Mike Huckabee) But they will also be wrong. A John Kennedy, part Jesse Jackson, it is all got massive airtime, donations and Edwards presidency would have been a hard to pigeonhole the crusade that media coverage for many months. conventional Democratic administra- his campaign has become for a Elizabeth May will be lucky if she is tion — as would a Kerry or a Gore strange coalition of affluent educat- invited to a single debate and gets POLICY OPTIONS 11 MARCH 2008 Robin V. Sears more than passing mention from Peter this before the addition of the mid-February, the Clinton campaign Mansbridge in our system. Kennedy, Oprah and Kerry mailing had fired its top two officials, as it This openness inevitably draws lists. Hillary Clinton, previously became clear that Obama was outorga- more enthusiasts from a much wider dependent on the conventional cock- nizing them even with the older, poorer, community into politics, however pecu- tail-and-dinner-event driven form of female voters who were supposed to liar some of their motivations may fund-raising, realized following her have been the Clinton campaign bul- appear to the mainstream media and embarrassment on Super Tuesday the wark.