TERMPOL STUDY NO. 3.15: General Risk Analysis and Intended Methods of Reducing Risk ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY PROJECT FINAL Northern Gateway Pipelines Inc. April 2010 Northern Gateway Pipelines Inc. TERMPOL STUDY NO. 3.15: General Risk Analysis and Intended Methods of Reducing Risk Table of Contents Table of Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Objective .......................................................................................................... 1-2 1.2 Existing Documentation and Project-Specific Baseline Studies ........................ 1-2 2 Project and Site Description ............................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Project Overview .............................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 Distribution of Communities along the Carrier Route (3.15.4) ........................... 2-1 2.3 Relevant Climatic / Environmental Considerations ........................................... 2-7 2.3.1 Waves, Wind and Current ............................................................................. 2-7 2.3.2 Visibility .......................................................................................................... 2-8 3 Operational and Design Measures to Prevent Hydrocarbon Spills and Reduce Risk ................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Design Ship Safety Features ............................................................................ 3-1 3.1.1 Hull and Cargo Tank Components ................................................................ 3-1 3.1.2 Navigational Equipment ................................................................................. 3-2 3.1.3 Fire Prevention and Fire Fighting .................................................................. 3-2 3.1.4 Oil Tanker Vulnerability to Shipboard Incidents ............................................ 3-2 3.1.5 Future Oil Tanker Requirements ................................................................... 3-2 3.2 Marine Terminal Safety and Monitoring Equipment .......................................... 3-3 3.2.1 Gas Monitoring .............................................................................................. 3-3 3.2.2 Fire Detection and Fire Fighting .................................................................... 3-4 3.2.3 Control Room Monitoring ............................................................................... 3-4 3.2.4 Quick Release and Load Monitoring of Mooring Lines .................................. 3-5 3.2.5 Metocean Monitoring System ........................................................................ 3-5 3.2.6 Docking Monitoring System ........................................................................... 3-5 3.3 General Terminal Measures to Avoid or Minimise Spills ................................... 3-6 3.4 Vessel Operations and Environmental Protection ............................................. 3-7 4 Marine Shipping Network Risk Analysis .......................................................... 4-1 4.1 Shipping Route Description .............................................................................. 4-3 4.2 Hazard Identification ........................................................................................ 4-4 4.3 Probability of Hydrocarbon Spills along the Shipping Routes ........................... 4-5 4.3.1 Incident Statistics ........................................................................................... 4-6 4.3.2 Conditional Probabilities of a Spill ............................................................... 4-11 4.3.3 Risk of a Spill from a Tanker........................................................................ 4-13 4.3.4 Consequence Analysis (Spill Size) .............................................................. 4-17 5 Safety Analysis for Berthing/Unberthing and Cargo Transfer Operations at the Kitimat Terminal ........................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Terminal Description ........................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Probability of Hydrocarbon Spills ...................................................................... 5-4 5.2.1 Probability of Spills associated with Cargo Transfer Operations at the Kitimat Terminal ............................................................................................. 5-5 April 2010 FINAL Page i Northern Gateway Pipelines Inc. TERMPOL STUDY NO. 3.15: General Risk Analysis and Intended Methods of Reducing Risk Table of Contents 6 Properties and Weathering of Liquid Hydrocarbons .........................................6-1 6.1 Physical Properties ........................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Chemical Properties ......................................................................................... 6-2 6.3 Weathering and Fate of Spilled Hydrocarbon .................................................... 6-3 6.3.1 Spreading ...................................................................................................... 6-3 6.3.2 Evaporation .................................................................................................... 6-4 6.3.3 Dissolution ..................................................................................................... 6-4 6.3.4 Oil-in-Water Emulsification ............................................................................ 6-4 6.3.5 Dispersion ...................................................................................................... 6-4 6.3.6 Sedimentation ................................................................................................ 6-4 6.3.7 Oxidation ........................................................................................................ 6-5 6.3.8 Biodegradation .............................................................................................. 6-5 6.3.9 Estimates of Weathering Processes .............................................................. 6-5 7 Incident Prevention and Response ..................................................................7-1 7.1 Canadian Coast Guard, Transport Canada and the Pilotage Authority .............. 7-2 7.2 Response Approaches and Capabilities ........................................................... 7-3 7.3 Communications ............................................................................................... 7-7 7.4 Response Objectives and Strategies ................................................................ 7-7 7.5 Equipment and Personnel ............................................................................... 7-11 7.5.1 Escort Tugs .................................................................................................. 7-13 7.6 Protection of Sensitive Areas .......................................................................... 7-13 7.6.1 Environmental Sensitivity Atlas ................................................................... 7-14 7.6.2 Key Sensitive Areas..................................................................................... 7-14 7.7 Shoreline Response ....................................................................................... 7-16 7.8 Financial Responsibility .................................................................................. 7-16 7.8.1 Response to Marine Spills ........................................................................... 7-17 7.8.2 Ship Owner Liability ..................................................................................... 7-17 7.9 Compensation ................................................................................................ 7-17 7.9.1 International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund ........................................... 7-17 7.9.2 Ship-Source Oil Pollution Fund ................................................................... 7-18 7.9.3 The International Supplementary Fund ....................................................... 7-18 8 Setting for the Open Water Area......................................................................8-1 8.1 Continental Slope ............................................................................................. 8-4 8.2 Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance .............................. 8-8 8.3 Queen Charlotte Strait ...................................................................................... 8-9 8.4 North Coast Inlets and Fjords ........................................................................... 8-9 8.5 Vancouver Island Shelf ................................................................................... 8-10 8.6 Uncommon Oceanographic Features ............................................................. 8-10 9 Setting for the CCAA .......................................................................................9-1 10 Effects of Hydrocarbons on the Biophysical Environment ............................... 10-1 10.1 Approach ........................................................................................................ 10-1 10.1.1 Geographic Extent of Study Area ................................................................ 10-3 10.1.2 Assessment Data ........................................................................................