A Spatial Agent-based Model for Volcanic Evacuation of Mt. Merapi Jumadi Jumadi Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds School of Geography October 2018 - ii - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own, except where work which has formed part of jointly authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. Chapter 2 has appeared in publication: Jumadi, Carver, S. and Quincey, D. 2017. A Conceptual Design of Spatio- Temporal Agent-Based Model for Volcanic Evacuation. Systems. 5(4), p.53. J.J. (the Candidate) designed the model, performed the simulation and analysed the output, S.C. and D.Q. supported developing the concept of the model. J.J. drafted the manuscript, S.C. and D.Q. improved the manuscript. All the authors read and approved the final manuscript. Chapter 3 has appeared in publication: Jumadi, Heppenstall, A.J., Malleson, N.S., Carver, S.J., Quincey, D.J. and Manville, V.R. 2018. Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia. Geosciences. 8(6), p.196. J.J. (the Candidate) collected and analysed the dataset; S.C., D. Q., N. M. and V. M. advised on the data collection; J.J. conceived, designed, performed the experiments; and analysed the output; A.H., N. M., S. C., and D.Q. helped in improving the model design; J.J. wrote the manuscript; J.J., A.H., N. M., S. C., D. Q., and V. M. improved the manuscript. Chapter 4 has been reviewed for publication with positive opinion: Jumadi; Malleson, N.;Carver, S.; Quincey, D. An Agent-Based Approach for Spatio-Temporal Dynamics Model of Risk in Merapi. Resubmitted to JASSS. https://www.epress.ac.uk//JASSS/webforms/submission.php?id=3936&articl e=3858. J.J. (the Candidate) collected and analysed the dataset; S.C., D. Q., and N. M. advised on the data collection; J.J. conceived, designed, performed the experiments; and analysed the output; N. M., S. C., and D. Q. helped in improving the model design; J.J. wrote the manuscript; J.J.,N. M., S. C., and D. Q. improved the manuscript. - iii - Chapter 5 has been submitted to Computers, Environment and Urban Systems: Jumadi; Carver, S.; Quincey, D. An agent-based experiment of the improvement of the evacuation management in Merapi: staged versus simultaneous evacuation. J.J. (the Candidate) collected and analysed the dataset; S.C., and D. Q. advised on the data collection; J.J. conceived, designed, performed the experiments; and analysed the output; S. C., and D. Q. helped in improving the model design; J.J. wrote the manuscript; J.J., S. C., and D. Q. improved the manuscript. - iv - Thesis by Alternative Format Rationale This thesis is submitted as an alternative style of doctoral thesis including published material. This format is appropriate for the thesis because two out of the four chapters have already been published in peer-reviewed journals, one of them has been reviewed with invitation to be resubmitted and one article is in review. The four manuscripts are preceded by an introduction (Chapter 1), which includes a review of the literature to give context to the work, highlight the literature gaps, the objectives and the general methodology. A discussion and conclusion section follows the research articles in Chapter 6. This structure connects together the ideas of all four manuscripts, placing them in the context of the relevant literature and providing further critical analysis, and lastly conclude the overarching findings. The contributions of the research will also be highlighted here. This format adheres to the Faculty of Environment protocol for the format and presentation of an alternative style of doctoral thesis including published material. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. Assertion of moral rights: The right of Jumadi Jumadi to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by his in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2018 The University of Leeds and Jumadi Jumadi - v - Acknowledgments “Alhamdulillah”, finally I can finish this work. I gratefully acknowledge numerous people who support me to finish this work. Firstly, I would like to say a very great thanks to my fantastic supervisory team, Dr Steve Carver and Dr Duncan Quincey, who guided and supported me step by step of completing this project with kindness. I came with almost no idea in my mind, then they directed me to ABM which was absolutely unknown for me. It was so challenging but interesting. I am also deeply grateful to my research support group team: Dr Nick Malleson, Prof Alison Heppenstall, and Dr Vern Manville, who provided supports and highly valuable feedback to my research. Especially to Dr Nick Malleson who introduced me to ABM development with RepasCity, my first model trial, and ODD protocol, and Prof Alison Heppenstall for insightful ideas in developing my research. This research will not be possible without funding. Therefore, I would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education of Indonesia which provides funding to pursue the PhD and UMS for the financial support. Also, thanks to Newton fund - British Council for financial support during workshop in Yogyakarta. Especially for Dr Gavin Sullivan from University of Coventry as the workshop leader. Thanks to my colleagues and friends who have shared the journey together in Leeds. Especially to my Indonesian colleagues of KIBAR Leeds, Indonesian Student Association (PPI LEEDS), Indonesian SoG students, PCIM Muhammmadiyah UK, Family of Burley Lodge-45, and Indonesian Community in Huddersfield for numerous supports. Also, special thanks to HR team from UMS for all supports. A lot of thanks and loves for my family who always bring happiness to my life. Especially to my wife, Kusmiyati (Mia), who patiently support me during completing my PhD and also my children (Dzaky, Asyraf, Asyam, Ilyas & Ilyasa). Last but not least, to my parents for uncountable supports. - vi - Abstract Natural disasters, especially volcanic eruptions, are hazardous events that frequently happen in Indonesia. As a country within the “Ring of Fire”, Indonesia has hundreds of volcanoes and Mount Merapi is the most active. Historical studies of this volcano have revealed that there is potential for a major eruption in the future. Therefore, long-term disaster management is needed. To support the disaster management, physical and socially-based research has been carried out, but there is still a gap in the development of evacuation models. This modelling is necessary to evaluate the possibility of unexpected problems in the evacuation process since the hazard occurrences and the population behaviour are uncertain. The aim of this research was to develop an agent-based model (ABM) of volcanic evacuation to improve the effectiveness of evacuation management in Merapi. Besides the potential use of the results locally in Merapi, the development process of this evacuation model contributes by advancing the knowledge of ABM development for large-scale evacuation simulation in other contexts. Its novelty lies in (1) integrating a hazard model derived from historical records of the spatial impact of eruptions, (2) formulating and validating an individual evacuation decision model in ABM based on various interrelated factors revealed from literature reviews and surveys that enable the modelling of reluctant people, (3) formulating the integration of multi- criteria evaluation (MCE) in ABM to model a spatio-temporal dynamic model of risk (STDMR) that enables representation of the changing of risk as a consequence of changing hazard level, hazard extent and movement of people, and (4) formulating an evacuation staging method based on MCE using geographic and demographic criteria. The volcanic evacuation model represents the relationships between physical and human agents, consisting of the volcano, stakeholders, the population at risk and the environment. The experimentation of several evacuation scenarios in Merapi using the developed ABM of evacuation shows that simultaneous strategy is superior in reducing the risk, but the staged scenario is the most effective in minimising the potential of road traffic problems during evacuation events in Merapi. Staged evacuation can be a good option when there is enough time to evacuate. However, if the evacuation time is limited, the simultaneous strategy is better to be implemented. Appropriate traffic management should be prepared to avoid traffic problems when the second option is chosen. - vii - Table of Contents Acknowledgments....................................................................................... v Abstract ....................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ...................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................ xi List of Tables ............................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................