AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING (ATSE) NUMBER 149 APRIL 2008 Adapting to our changing climate Contributors discuss key aspects of climate change and its impacts, international moves to ameliorate its effects, what those effects might be and what Australia can do about them FOCUS www.atse.org.au 4923_OQS_ATSE_Ad_CLR_A4_PTRT.indd 1 13/3/08 9:58:51 AM CONTENTS 12 ENVIRONMENT & SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: THE CAETS CONVOCATION STATEMENT 5 15 OCEANS OF CHANGE Thewideningscopeof climatechange 18 GaRNAUT: GENERAL ISSUES By Graeme Pearman AND PARTICULAR INTERESTS 20 GaRNAUT RELEASES ETS MODEL PAPER 20 WILL CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE OUR INFRASTRUCTURE? 8 21 FLAWED CLIMATE CHANGE Australia’sclimate ADVICE FROM BIG SCIENCE responsepriorities needtochange 24 A CASE AGAINST CLIMATE By Ken Dredge ALARMISM 26 HYDROGEN STILL HAS PLENTY OF RESEARCH CHALLENGES 27 ATSE WINS ARC GRANT TO SHAPE NEW HEALTH 10 APPROACHES It’stimetomove 28 PETER CULLEN: A TRULY GREAT forward AUSTRALIAN By Brian Sadler 31 ATSE IN FOCUS References Cover: Southern Ocean recovery of equipment used to measure The subject of climate change is contentious. The articles published on the topic in ocean temperatures and take water samples to determine the this edition of ATSE Focus are from respected contributors, representing a variety of carbon content of sea water. By absorbing carbon dioxide and points of view on various aspects of the topic. The format of ATSE Focus does not heat, oceans influence the rate of climate change. Deep ocean permit publication of lists of references or extensive footnoting. Readers are reminded measurements are used to determine the recent rate of change. that each author’s email address is provided at the start of each article and requests for Photo: CSIRO references or further information can be directed to the authors. – Editor ATSE is an independent body of eminent Australian engineers and scientists established to promote the application of scientific and engineering knowledge to practical purposes. ATSE Focus is produced to serve this goal. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of ATSE. Material published in Focus may be reproduced provided ATSE Focus is produced to stimulate discussion and appropriate acknowledgement is given to the author and the Academy. public policy initiatives on key topics of interest Chief Executive Officer: Dr Trevor Evans to the Academy and the nation. Many articles are Editor: Bill Mackey contributed by ATSE Fellows with expertise in these Technical Consultant: Dr Vaughan Beck FTSE areas. Opinion pieces on topics of national interest, AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERINg (ATSE) particularly the Academy’s key interest areas – climate Address: Ian McLennan House, 197 Royal Parade, Parkville Victoria 3052 change, water, energy and education – will be Postal Address: PO Box 355, Parkville Victoria 3052 considered for publication. Items between 800 Telephone: 03 9340 1200 and 1500 words are preferred. 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ABN 58 008 520 394 Print Post Publication No 341403/0025 Deadline for the receipt of copy for next edition of ISSN 1326-8708 Focus is16May2008 Design and production: Coretext 03 9670 1168 www.coretext.com.au FOCUS www.atse.org.au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åOBODJBM TVQQPSUUPSFTFBSDITUVEFOUT8FIBWFEFWFMPQFETUSPOHMPDBMBOE JOUFSOBUJPOBMDPMMBCPSBUJWFSFTFBSDIJOJUJBUJWFTXJUIJOEVTUSZQBSUOFSTBOE 'PSGVSUIFSJOGPSNBUJPO QSFTUJHJPVTUFSUJBSZFEVDBUJPOJOTUJUVUJPOT 'BDVMUZPG&OHJOFFSJOH 3FTFBSDI%FHSFFT 5 l %PDUPSPG1IJMPTPQIZ 1I% NJOZFBSTPGGVMMUJNFTUVEZMFBEJOHUPB &FOHGBDVMUZ!VOTXFEVBV TJHOJåDBOUDPOUSJCVUJPOUPLOPXMFEHF XXXFOHVOTXFEVBV l.BTUFSCZ3FTFBSDIDMPTFMZTVQFSWJTFEPSJHJOBMJOWFTUJHBUJPOXIPTFTDPQF JTNPSFMJNJUFEUPUIBUPGB1I%.JOZFBSTPGGVMMUJNFTUVEZ 'BDVMUZPG4DJFODF l.BTUFSPG1IJMPTPQIZ .1IJM SFTFBSDIEFHSFFXJUIBDPVSTFXPSL 5 DPNQPOFOUUPEFWFMPQSFTFBSDIDPNQFUFODFJOBMJNJUFEUJNFGSBNF ZFBS &TDJFODF!VOTXFEVBV GVMMUJNFTUVEZ XXXTDJFODFVOTXFEVBV 1PTUHSBEVBUF$PVSTFXPSL1SPHSBNT 5IF'BDVMUJFTPG&OHJOFFSJOHBOE4DJFODFBMTPPGGFSQPTUHSBEVBUF DPVSTFXPSLQSPHSBNTBOEDPOUJOVJOHFEVDBUJPOGPSQSPGFTTJPOBMT8FDBUFS GPSQFPQMFXJUIBXJEFSBOHFPGCBDLHSPPVOETBOEFYQFSJFODF BOEQSPWJEF PQQPSUVOJUJFTGPSDSPTTUSBJOJOHBOESFUSBJOJOH0VSQSPHSBNTSFæFDUUIF MBUFTUEJTDPWFSJFTBOEDPOUFNQPSBSZJOEVTUSJBMBOEFOWJSPONFOUBMOFFET CLIMATE CHANGE The widening scope of climate change Warming has already taken the planet into a condition where human experience no longer provides a reliable indication of the future By Graeme Pearman [email protected] was anticipated for the future but not previously n recent decades research has shown clearly that observed; the Earth is warming and that this warming is òregions of low productivity appear to be increasing largely due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and other in the north and south Atlantic and Pacific oceans, greenhouse gases that have increased in the atmo- consistent with greater stability of the warmer ocean Isphere due to human activities. We now have some con- surface; and fidence that we can anticipate future warming and con- òanticipated rates of change of temperature and sea comitant changes to climate. In responding to global level have under-predicted what has now occurred, warming we have several options and challenges, some possibly reflecting a tendency for scientific conserva- of which are briefly considered below. tism. These findings remind us that the warming has -al What the science has and ready taken the planet into a condition where human has not told us experience no longer provides a reliable indication of The knowledge of climate change contained within the future. It also reminds us that we may have limited peer-reviewed scientific publications is periodically predictability particularly of the non-linear responses assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate of both the physical and biological world of what, until Change (IPCC). For example, in the first part of now, have been regarded by the wider community as IPCC’s recent report (February 2007), 750 authors as- ‘small’ climatic changes. sessed the underpinning science of climate change by We hear that ‘the science is now in’. This is as if, examining 6000 journal articles, approximately half of somehow, there was a point at which we did not know which were published since 2001. anything about the issue, and then it all became clear. New research published in recent months has Of course this is absurd. There was no such point, nor heightened concern about the probability of faster and will there be. more intrusive change than anticipated just a year ago. For example, the complexity of responses of ecosys- For example: tems to climate change and the huge numbers of spe- òobserved changes to biological systems (migration, cies involved means it is unlikely that we will anticipate breeding/flowering times, behaviour, fecundity, ge- many of the biological changes that will result from netics) appear to have been a response to changed planetary warming. Strategic planning and decision- climate; making need to incorporate flexibility in the face of òa 20 per cent decrease in Arctic sea-ice extent last such uncertainty. northern hemisphere summer raises the possibility We must continue to build our knowledge as best that this ice sheet may disappear earlier than 2050, as we can and ensure that mechanisms exist for that knowl- the IPPC projected, with consequences for econom- edge to be applied to decision-making in a timely way. ic and political instability now being considered; Increasingly, that knowledge is not just about pushing òglobal CO2 emissions continue to grow at a rate that the frontiers of particular disciplines, but about the in- is at the high end of projections; tegration of physical, biological, social, technological òthe capacity of the oceans to absorb CO2 has de- and economic knowledge into reasoned options for the creased over the past two decades, something that management of businesses and state jurisdictions. FOCUS www.atse.org.au 5 CLIMATE CHANGE Understanding probabilities and the sharing of water between irrigation, river flow for managing risk natural ecosystems, power generation and potable use. When scientists conduct experiments or examine data It has implications for the use of rural land for produc- they choose the probability of between 95 and 99 per tion, for food prices and for food-commodity exports. cent certainty to reject or accept a hypothesis. Yet these Embedded in this complexity are unanswered stra- probabilities have little to do with the probability used tegic questions such as: in risk assessment, which is inversely related to the de- òIs it therefore advisable to embark on the develop- gree of impact. ment of a biofuel industry? For example, we are not 99 per cent certain that the òHow do we balance the many adaptive options, such current Australian drought