insects Article Bioclimatic Modelling Identifies Suitable Habitat for the Establishment of the Invasive European Paper Wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) across the Southern Hemisphere Matthew W. F. Howse 1,* , John Haywood 2 and Philip J. Lester 1 1 School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand; [email protected] 2 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 20 October 2020; Accepted: 9 November 2020; Published: 11 November 2020 Simple Summary: The European paper wasp, Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), has become an invasive species across the globe. This wasp can reach high population densities and this, combined with its predatory nature, makes this insect a potential threat to biodiversity. There has been a lot of research conducted on this species throughout the northern hemisphere; however, little is known about their distribution in the southern hemisphere. Our objective was to identify where, in the southern hemisphere, P. dominula could become established. Two species distribution modelling approaches were used to make these predictions. Based on these models, there are large areas across southern South America, South Africa, southern Australia, and much of New Zealand that are likely to be at risk of further invasion by this species. These findings can be used to inform biosecurity measures in regions deemed at risk of invasion by this globally important pest. Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are tools used by ecologists to help predict the spread of invasive species. Information provided by these models can help direct conservation and biosecurity efforts by highlighting areas likely to contain species of interest. In this study, two models were created to investigate the potential range expansion of Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the southern hemisphere. This palearctic species has spread to invade North and South America, South Africa, Australia, and more recently New Zealand. Using the BIOCLIM and MAXENT modelling methods, regions that were suitable for P. dominula were identified based on climate data across four regions in the southern hemisphere. In South America areas of central Chile, eastern Argentina, parts of Uruguay, and southern Brazil were identified as climatically suitable for the establishment of P. dominula. Similarly, southern parts of South Africa and Australia were identified by the model to be suitable as well as much of the North Island and east of the South Island of New Zealand. Based on outputs from both models, significant range expansion by P. dominula is possible across its more southern invaded ranges. Keywords: BIOCLIM; invasive species; MAXENT; Polistes dominula; species distribution model 1. Introduction Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming increasingly important in ecology, due to their ability to help predict the potential distributions of invasive organisms. These models bring together known species occurrence records and environmental data to provide users with an estimation of the Insects 2020, 11, 784; doi:10.3390/insects11110784 www.mdpi.com/journal/insects Insects 2020, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20 Insects 2020, 11, 784 2 of 19 known species occurrence records and environmental data to provide users with an estimation of the conditions a species requires to survive. This information can be used to identify locations that could conditionssupport population a speciess requires of a particular to survive. species This [1] information. Species distribution can be used models to identify have locationsbeen used that to guide could supportthe creation populations of more effective of a particular reserves species [2], to [1 project]. Species impacts distribution of climate models change have [3] been, and usedto predict to guide the thespread creation of invasive of more species effective [4]. reserves [2], to project impacts of climate change [3], and to predict the spreadPolistes of invasive dominula species Christ [4 ].(Hymenoptera: Vespidae) is a well-known and wide-ranging invasive socialPolistes wasp species dominula [5]Christ. A palearctic (Hymenoptera: species native Vespidae) to Europe, is a well-known North Africa and, and wide-ranging parts of Central invasive Asia, socialP. dominula wasp has species spread [5]. to A both palearctic North species and South native America, to Europe, South North Africa, Africa, Australia and parts, and of more Central recently, Asia, P.New dominula Zealandhas (Fig spreadure 1) to [5 both–7]. North This species and South is largely America, predatory SouthAfrica, by nature Australia, [8]. Similar and more to its recently, Vespid Newrelatives, Zealand P. dominula (Figure is1 )[a frequent5–7]. This predator species of is Lepidoptera largely predatory larvae by[9– nature12] though [8]. it Similar is thought to its that Vespid this relatives,predatoryP. wasp dominula has ais more a frequent generalist predator diet than of Lepidoptera that of other larvae related [9– 12species] though [13,14] it is. thoughtPolistes dominula that this predatoryhas also been wasp shown has a to more have generalist several competitive diet than that advantages of other related over closely species related [13,14 ].species.Polistes Studi dominulaes in hasNorth also America been shown and South to have Africa several have competitive shown that advantages P. dominula over nests closely are more related productive species. than Studies other in NorthPolistes America species, andable Southto produce Africa more have offspring shown that overP. dominulaa longer nestsactive are season more [15 productive–17]. This than high other nest Polistesproductivityspecies, has able led P. to dominula produce to more reach off largespring population over a longer densities active in season their invaded [15–17]. areas This. high nest productivity has led P. dominula to reach large population densities in their invaded areas. Figure 1. Global distribution of P. dominula constructed from data retrieved from Global Biodiversity Figure 1. Global distribution of P. dominula constructed from data retrieved from Global Biodiversity Information Facility database (GBIF) [18]. Red points indicate occurrences in an invaded range. Information Facility database (GBIF) [18]. Red points indicate occurrences in an invaded range. Blue Blue points indicate occurrences in the assumed native range [5,6]. In total 9246 occurrences were used points indicate occurrences in the assumed native range [5,6]. In total 9246 occurrences were used in in this study. Of the total, 3028 occurrences were from invaded ranges and 6218 were from the assumed this study. Of the total, 3028 occurrences were from invaded ranges and 6218 were from the assumed native range. native range. The invasion of P. dominula across the globe has been fairly well studied but not equally across affectedThe regions. invasion In of the P. northerndominula hemisphereacross the globeP. dominula has beenhas fairly famously well studied invaded but from not the equally east to across west coastsaffected of regions. the United In the States northern over hemisphere the last 50 yearsP. dominula [19]. Polisteshas famously dominula invadedis known from to the have east becometo west establishedcoasts of the throughout United States the southernover the last hemisphere 50 years but[19] its. Polistes spread dominula in these regionsis known has to beenhave critically become understudied.established throughout This invasive the southern species appearshemisphere to have but establishedits spread in in these the southern regions hemispherehas been critically by the 1980sunderstudied. in Australia This [ 20invasive] and Chile species [21 ,appear22]. It wass to foundhave established to have established in the southern in Argentina hemisphere by 2003 by [ 23the], South1980s in Africa Australia by 2008 [20] [ 24and], andChile in [21,22] New. Zealand It was found by 2016 to have [7]. Exceptestablished in South in Argentina Africa, little by 2003 research [23], hasSouth been Africa conducted by 2008 on[24] the, and status in New of theseZealand invasive by 201 populations6 [7]. 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