Peel L&P Development Limited January 2021 Haydock Point Appeal Property Market Assessment Proof of Evidence Rory Brooke Appeal by Peel L&P Development Limited Haydock Point PINS REFERENCE: APP/H4315/W/20/3256871 savills.co.uk Haydock Point Appeal Rory Brooke Property Market Assessment Proof of Evidence Contents Introduction 4 Personal Details .................................................................................................................................... 4 Scope of Evidence ................................................................................................................................ 4 Structure ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Note on Land Use Classes ................................................................................................................... 5 Haydock Point and the Other Appeal Sites 6 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Haydock Point, Saint Helens (Peel L&P Ltd) ........................................................................................ 7 Parkside, Newton-le-Willows, Saint Helens (Langtree and St Helens BC) .......................................... 9 Symmetry Park, Wigan (Tritax Symmetry) ......................................................................................... 13 Land West of Wingates Industrial Estate, Bolton (Harworth Group) .................................................. 15 Omega South Western Extension, Land north of Finches Plantation ................................................ 18 Comparison ......................................................................................................................................... 20 Policy Framework and Evidence Base 23 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Liverpool City Region .......................................................................................................................... 24 St Helens Market Assessment ............................................................................................................ 28 Greater Manchester Region Market Assessment ............................................................................... 31 Conclusion and Summary ................................................................................................................... 33 Submitted Market Analysis in Support of the Scheme 34 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 34 Total Logistics Report 2016 ................................................................................................................ 34 CBRE Report April 2020 ..................................................................................................................... 35 Economic Statement May 2020 .......................................................................................................... 36 My Approach to Assessing Market Need 37 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Definition of the PMA .......................................................................................................................... 37 Sub-Markets and Time Frames .......................................................................................................... 37 Historic Demand ................................................................................................................................. 38 Demand Constrained or Supply Constrained: Market Signals ........................................................... 40 Adjustment for Future Anticipated Trends/Drivers .............................................................................. 40 Converting Floorspace into Land: Plot Ratio ...................................................................................... 41 Land Supply Assessment ................................................................................................................... 41 Adjustment for Market Equilibrium Vacancy Rates............................................................................. 42 Gap Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 43 Relevant Property Market Area for Haydock Point 44 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 44 The Product/Target Market ................................................................................................................. 44 Context: Motorway Network and Population Distribution ................................................................... 44 Travel Time Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 46 Logistics User Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 46 Market Intelligence and Views ............................................................................................................ 48 Selected PMAs and Relationship to Liverpool FEMA and GMSF ...................................................... 49 Peel L&P Developments Ltd January 2021 1 Haydock Point Appeal Rory Brooke Property Market Assessment Proof of Evidence Historic Demand in the PMA 52 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Historic Take-Up of New Space .......................................................................................................... 52 Historic Take-Up of Net Additional Greenfield Space ......................................................................... 53 Historic Demand for Greenfield Land ................................................................................................. 55 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................... 55 Estimated Future Demand in the PMA 56 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Market Signals .................................................................................................................................... 56 Current Market Requirements............................................................................................................. 57 Drivers of Future Demand in the PMA ................................................................................................ 58 LA Estimates of Adjustments to Future Demand in the PMA ............................................................. 59 My Estimate of Adjustments to Future Demand in the PMA .............................................................. 60 Demand for Greenfield and Longer-Term Brownfield Land ................................................................ 61 Comparison with LA Studies ............................................................................................................... 62 Supply of Industrial Land and Premises 63 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 63 Elements of Supply ............................................................................................................................. 63 Total Supply ........................................................................................................................................ 64 Review of Individual Sites ................................................................................................................... 66 Estimate of Larger Unit Capacity ........................................................................................................ 76 Comparison of Appeal Sites ............................................................................................................... 76 Supply of Sites Capable of Accommodating 1 million sq.ft Building ................................................... 77 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 78 Balance of Supply and Demand in the PMA 79 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 79 Adjustment for Market Equilibrium Vacancy Rate .............................................................................. 79 Demand and Supply Comparison ....................................................................................................... 79 Demand and Supply and the Appeal Sites ......................................................................................... 80 Sensitivity Test: Lower Demand ........................................................................................................