Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 THE MANCHURIAN QUESTION: CHINA’S EXPANDING GLOBAL MEDIA DOMINANCE AND THE CHINESE DIASPORA Padua, Justin V.; Liu, Austin Y. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64041 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE MANCHURIAN QUESTION: CHINA’S EXPANDING GLOBAL MEDIA DOMINANCE AND THE CHINESE DIASPORA by Justin V. Padua and Austin Y. Liu December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Timothy C. Warren Second Reader: Christopher P. Twomey Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS THE MANCHURIAN QUESTION: CHINA’S EXPANDING GLOBAL MEDIA DOMINANCE AND THE CHINESE DIASPORA 6. AUTHOR(S) Justin V. Padua and Austin Y. Liu 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream has elicited the assistance of ethnic Chinese people around the world in achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The People’s Republic of China has not hidden its intent at influencing the overseas Chinese diaspora having embarked on a soft power campaign to achieve its geopolitical objectives. Using its extensive state media apparatus, the PRC has extended its media influence throughout the globe with a persistent narrative conforming to the China “story” developed by the Chinese Communist Party. This study determines the extent to which China leverages its state media and diaspora to promote its narratives regarding its core national interests around the world. These interests concern primarily its issues over sovereignty to include the South China Sea, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. This study includes a quantitative analysis through regression testing of a sample of Twitter and media archive data and United Nations migrant data. Furthermore, this study highlighted several regional cases in Oceania—namely, Australia and New Zealand—and Southeast Asia in a qualitative analysis to answer this study’s research question. Overall, this study found significance of a relationship between Tweets regarding the PRC’s core national issues and the Chinese diaspora implicating overseas Chinese communities’ contribution to the PRC’s geopolitical narratives. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF People’s Republic of China, PRC, China, Chinese, CCP, Chinese Communist Party, Chinese PAGES diaspora, Chinese migrant, social media, information communication technology, state 137 media, influence 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THE MANCHURIAN QUESTION: CHINA’S EXPANDING GLOBAL MEDIA DOMINANCE AND THE CHINESE DIASPORA Justin V. Padua Major, United States Army BS, U.S. Military Academy, 2008 MPA, University of Southern California, 2016 Austin Y. Liu Major, United States Army BS, University of California - Los Angeles, 2008 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS (IRREGULAR WARFARE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Timothy C. Warren Advisor Christopher P. Twomey Second Reader Kalev I. Sepp Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream has elicited the assistance of ethnic Chinese people around the world in achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The People’s Republic of China has not hidden its intent at influencing the overseas Chinese diaspora having embarked on a soft power campaign to achieve its geopolitical objectives. Using its extensive state media apparatus, the PRC has extended its media influence throughout the globe with a persistent narrative conforming to the China “story” developed by the Chinese Communist Party. This study determines the extent to which China leverages its state media and diaspora to promote its narratives regarding its core national interests around the world. These interests concern primarily its issues over sovereignty to include the South China Sea, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. This study includes a quantitative analysis through regression testing of a sample of Twitter and media archive data and United Nations migrant data. Furthermore, this study highlighted several regional cases in Oceania—namely, Australia and New Zealand—and Southeast Asia in a qualitative analysis to answer this study’s research question. Overall, this study found significance of a relationship between Tweets regarding the PRC’s core national issues and the Chinese diaspora implicating overseas Chinese communities’ contribution to the PRC’s geopolitical narratives. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .........................................................................1 B. SOFT POWER: FROM THE DIASPORA’S PERSPECTIVE.............2 C. RESEARCH QUESTION AND WAY AHEAD .....................................3 II. LITERATURE REVIEW .....................................................................................5 1. Soft Power with Chinese Characteristics .....................................5 2. Diaspora in the Context of Soft Power Theory ...........................6 3. The Influence of the Chinese Diaspora ........................................7 4. Current Schools of Thought on Diaspora Politics ......................8 5. Western Academic Views on the Chinese Diaspora’s Political Influence.........................................................................13 6. The Metamorphosis of Chinese Diaspora Identity in the Digital Age ....................................................................................13 7. Illuminating the PRC’s Methods for Conducting Diaspora Politics...........................................................................16 8. Summary of Gaps in the Current Literature ............................17 III. THEORIZING CHINESE INFLUENCE STRATEGY ABROAD ................19 A. NATION BRANDING—THE GOAL OF BEIJING’S SOFT POWER STRATEGY .............................................................................19 B. REVISITING DIASPORA POLITICS FROM MAO TO XI .............21 1. Defining the Chinese Diaspora in Modern History ..................21 2. Evolution of Beijing’s State Apparatus for Diaspora Affairs............................................................................................23 C. BEIJING’S APPROACH TO INFLUENCING AUDIENCES ABROAD ..................................................................................................25 1. United Front Work Department—Building a Pro-Beijing Coalition ........................................................................................25 2. State Media—Propagating Beijing’s Global Narrative............28 D. BEIJING AND THE EMERGING DIGITAL DIASPORA ................28 E. THE PRC’S USE OF COMPUTATIONAL PROPAGANDA TO MANIPULATE THE SOCIAL MEDIA COMMUNITY ....................30 IV. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................................................................35 A. HYPOTHESES ........................................................................................35 B. OPERATIONALIZING OUR KEY VARIABLES ..............................37 1. Intra-diaspora Demographics .....................................................37 vii 2. Chinese Diaspora Netizens: Amplifiers to Beijing’s Messages Abroad? .......................................................................37 C. TRENDING ISSUES: ARE CERTAIN STATE MEDIA NARRATIVES MORE POPULAR ON SOCIAL MEDIA? ...............39 D. TO TWEET OR NOT TO TWEET: MICRO-BLOGGING AS A GAUGE OF CHINESE STATE MEDIA’S SALIENCE .....................40 E. SUMMARY