Band 7 / 2019 Band 7 / 2019 There is more that Greece and its Western Balkan neighbours have in common than separates them. This publication of the 37th work- shop of the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” ascertains the shared interests and challenges that require fos- tering good neighbourly relations for the above-mentioned states. Greece and Its Western Balkan Positive and critical aspects of bilateral relations are analysed in depth, common tasks regarding transnational as well as social Neighbours – Common Challenges and economic challenges are identified. Finally, possible paths for guaranteeing energy security in this part of Europe and beyond in in a Changing Europe the future are outlined. Greece and Its Western Balkan Neighbours – Common Challenges in a Changing Europe Balkan Greece and Its Western ISBN: 978-3-903121-66-9 Predrag Jureković and Elena Mandalenakis (Eds.) 7/19 (Eds.) ć, Mandalenakis ć, Mandalenakis 37th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” Jurekovi Study Group Information Study Group Information Predrag Jureković and Elena Mandalenakis (Eds.) Greece and Its Western Balkan Neighbours – Common Challenges in a Changing Europe 37th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” 07/2019 Vienna, April 2019 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Command Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria In co-operation with: PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Study Group Information Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence All rights reserved April 2019 ISBN 978-3-903121-66-9 Printing: ReproZ W 19-1966 Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Table of Contents Foreword Predrag Jureković and Elena Mandalenakis ............................................................... 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................... 7 PART I: GREEK RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBOURS .................... 9 Greek Bilateral Relations with Its Non-EU Neighbouring States: Albania, FYR of Macedonia/North Macedonia and Turkey Elena Mandalenakis ............................................................................................... 11 Understanding Albanian-Greek relations: Deconstructing paradoxes and myths Albert Rakipi .......................................................................................................... 29 Relations between (North) Macedonia and Greece after the Prespa Agreement – What Does the Future Hold? Magdalena Lembovska ............................................................................................ 45 Turkey’s Relations with Greece and Western Balkans: Looking from Turkish Geopolitical Lenses, Memory, and Security Culture Nilüfer Narli ........................................................................................................... 57 PART II: TRANSNATIONAL COMMON CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS ....................................................................................................... 81 Current Trends, Institutional Framework and the Response of the Republic of Serbia in the Field of Countering Irregular Migration Caused by the Migrant Crisis Saša Gosić and Siniša Dostić ................................................................................... 83 Secure Borders and Safe Places: Contradiction in Terms or Twin Concepts? Berna Turam ......................................................................................................... 103 3 Transnational Common Challenges and Solutions: Migration Response Mladen Kakuća ..................................................................................................... 109 PART III: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES: SOCIOECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS........................................................................ 115 Socioeconomic Challenges in the Western Balkans Mario Holzner ...................................................................................................... 117 Demographic Processes in the Western Balkans: A Long Term Perspective Vladimir Nikitović ............................................................................................... 129 PART IV: ENERGY SECURITY ................................................................. 147 Energy Security Risks and Natural Gas Diversification in South East Europe Martin Vladimirov ................................................................................................ 149 How to Enhance Energy Cooperation and Energy Security between Greece and its Western Balkan Neighbours Patrick Larkin ...................................................................................................... 163 Energy Security and the Role of Greece in South East Europe Theodoros Christopoulos ......................................................................................... 173 PART V: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................ 185 Policy Recommendations “Regional Stability in South East Europe” Study Group ....................................... 187 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................ 197 List of Authors and Editor ............................................................................... 201 4 Foreword Predrag Jureković and Elena Mandalenakis This volume is composed of articles from the 37th workshop of the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe”. The workshop was con- ducted in Heraklion/Crete, Greece, from 20 to 23 September, 2018. Under the overarching title “Greece and Its Western Balkan Neighbours – Com- mon Challenges in a Changing Europe” 40 experts from the South East European region and other parts of Europe, international organizations and major stakeholder nations met under the umbrella of the Partnership for Peace (PfP) Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes and the Austrian Ministry of Defence, represented through its National Defence Academy and the Directorate General for Security Poli- cy. The workshop was supported by the regional partner, Dr. Elena Man- dalenakis, a political scientist specializing in international and regional secu- rity from Heraklion/Crete. The EU and NATO member Greece is literally – due to its geography – and metaphorically at a crossroads. Its geographical position in the Balkan Peninsula and shared history with its neighbours continue to shape its in- terests as well as the challenges it faces. Regional collaborative and adver- sarial state interactions continue to guide interstate relations in the region. Aside from the fluctuating bilateral relations, Greece and the Western Bal- kan states face challenges that can only be collectively dealt with. Common interests, such as the irregular migration and refugee crisis that began in 2015 and has threatened the internal coherence of the EU, have also tested the intra-regional relations in South East Europe. The refugee flow through the Eastern Mediterranean Route led to unilateral closings of EU external and internal borders, thus, weakening the Schengen Agreement, the protec- tion of human rights and the provision of humanitarian assistance. Coun- tries like Greece, operating as EU external borders, became the “gatekeep- ers of Europe” and have been disproportionally burdened by the crisis. This burden, in conjunction with the economic crisis that Greece faces 5 since 2009, questions its ability to effectively deal with the issue while abid- ing to humanitarian standards. At the same time, Greece’s expectation to participate in the markets after the end of the imposed Memoranda, while not economically robust yet, reduces the chances for a quick economic recovery. The fleeing of the most active, educated and talented generation to more prosperous countries (a phenomenon known as “brain drain”) is not unique in the case of Greece but common in the Western Balkans too. Along with a birth deficit it has become a serious obstacle for regional growth. Domestic political instability, rising civic unrest, rise of xenophobia and nationalism are only a few outcomes of a prolonged economic and social crisis that affect both Greece and the Western Balkans. In the energy sector, there are hopes for potential gains from the explora- tion of hydrocarbon resources that exist in the seabed of Greece. There are opposing views and political reactions in the country regarding the validity and the significance of these energy resources in both political and eco- nomic terms. At the same time, Greece qualifies for becoming a regional hub for energy security as it provides a relatively stable political environ- ment for the extract and transport of energy from the South Caucasus, the Caspian basin and Central Asia into Europe. Against the background of Greek-Western Balkan relations, the covered topics in this Study Group information range from existing bilateral chal- lenges between Greece and its neighbours Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (now North Macedonia) and Turkey, transnational common challenges, in particular caused by migration flows, shared demo- graphic and economic challenges as well as topics linked to energy security. The editors would like to express their thanks to all authors who contribut- ed papers to this volume of the Study