A RISK-BASED ASSESSMENT TOOL TO PRIORITIZE ROADWAY CULVERT ASSETS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING A Dissertation Presented to The Academic Faculty By Thomas A. Wall In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Civil & Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology December 2013 Copyright © Thomas A. Wall 2013 A RISK-BASED ASSESSMENT TOOL TO PRIORITIZE ROADWAY CULVERT ASSETS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING Approved by: Dr. Adjo Amekudzi, Advisor Dr. Frank Southworth School of Civil & Environmental School of Civil & Environmental Engineering Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Kari Watkins, Co-Advisor Dr. Catherine Ross School of Civil & Environmental School of City & Regional Planning Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Michael Meyer Dr. Michael Rodgers Senior Advisor School of Civil & Environmental Parsons Brinckerhoff Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Date Approved: November 8, 2013 God has cared for these trees, saved them from drought, disease, avalanches, and a thousand straining, leveling tempests and floods; but he cannot save them from fools... ~ John Muir (1901) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are many people I would like to acknowledge for their support throughout my dissertation research. I would first like to thank my advisor, Dr. Adjo Amekudzi, for her tireless support during the dissertation process, and for being a source of guidance throughout my final years of graduate school. I would also like to thank Dr. Michael Meyer for his advice and guidance as a mentor throughout my graduate career, and for starting me down the road of climate change research. I am indebted to my committee for their support and comments: Dr. Michael Rodgers for his patience in discussing with me the intricacies of climate modeling and impacts; Dr. Frank Southworth for helping me to explore aspects of asset criticality; Dr. Catherine Ross for discussions of socio- economic criticality measures; and Dr. Kari Watkins for her unwavering support and guidance to an aspiring academic. I would like to thank Dr. Terry Sturm (Georgia Tech) and Mark Kilby (Kimley- Horn and Associates, Inc.) for their consultation on the design, vulnerabilities, and failure of culverts. Thank you to Dr. Peter Webster for helping me to grasp the broad concepts of climate change, and to J.P. O'Har for being my co-conspirator in that pursuit (and many others). Thank you also to Josh Wells for his Matlab expertise and for inspiring me to be a better bowler. The case studies in this dissertation would not have been possible without the support of the four state Departments of Transportation. Thank you to Bonnie Peterson, Lisa Sayler, Bob Wolbeck, and Jesse Pearson at MnDOT; Brad Allen, Lubov Koptsev, and Andrew Haynes at NYSDOT; Robert Trevis at ODOT; and, Lori Beebe and Kevin iv Perkins at WSDOT. Thank you also to Stephen Gaj, Shyan-Yung Pan, and Butch Wlaschin at the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Asset Management, Pavement, and Construction for their support. This research was made possible, in part, by scholarships from the Federal Highway Administration’s Dwight David Eisenhower Transportation Fellowship Program, and the United States Department of State’s J. William Fulbright Scholarship Program. Thank you to both organizations for their support. As the capstone achievement of my graduate studies, this dissertation is in many (perhaps, most) ways a reflection of the time, effort, and input of my professors at Georgia Tech. It has been my privilege to be your student and I thank you all for being a driving force for both educational and personal growth. I would specifically like to thank Dr. Michael Hunter for being a mentor during my entire time at Georgia Tech, and Dr. Lisa Rosenstein for reminding me that there are other things to read than journal articles. I would like to thank my parents for their constant support and reassurance, and for making the pursuit of a graduate education more than 2000 miles from home seem like it was just down the street. Thank you to my sister for being a source of inspiration and for demonstrating that hard work and dedication are both worthy pursuits in all aspects of life. Thank you to Kathy for her endless moral support and first-hand understanding that late nights are sometimes a necessary part of life. Lastly, thank you to Maddie the dog for long walks and unqualified love and affection. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xvi GLOSSARY .............................................................................................................. xxvi LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................ xxviii SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. xxxii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Motivation ................................................................................................ 3 1.2 Research Objective .................................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 Guideline 1 – Focus on Highway Culvert Assets and Extreme Precipitation ... 4 1.2.2 Guideline 2: Maintain a Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation Assessment ..... 5 1.2.3 Guideline 3: Structure Framework for National Applicability ......................... 6 1.3 Dissertation Organization ........................................................................................ 7 CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE CHANGE OBSERVATIONS, PROJECTIONS, AND MODELING ............................................................................................ 10 2.1 Observed Changes in Climate ................................................................................ 10 2.1.1 Observed Changes: Temperature, Sea-Level, Precipitation, and Extreme Events .............................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 Other Global Trends: Snow Cover, Sea Ice, Permafrost, and Drought .......... 13 2.2 Climate Drivers & Projected Climate Change ....................................................... 14 2.3 Atmospheric-Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) ........................... 17 vi 2.4 Emissions Scenarios: SRES and RCP ................................................................... 21 2.5 Statistical & Dynamical Downscaling ................................................................... 23 2.6 Climate Change Projections ................................................................................... 25 2.6.1 Precipitation Seasonality ................................................................................. 29 2.6.2 Precipitation Intensity ..................................................................................... 30 2.6.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity, Precipitation, and Frequency .............................. 31 2.6.4 Sea Level Rise ................................................................................................. 31 2.7 Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections ........................................................... 32 CHAPTER 3: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RISK-BASED ADAPTATION IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR .................... 35 3.1 Adaptation and Uncertainty ................................................................................... 36 3.1.1 Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................. 37 3.1.2 Risk Management ........................................................................................... 38 3.1.3 Expert Opinion ................................................................................................ 39 3.1.4 Cyclic or Iterative Analysis ............................................................................ 40 3.1.5 Emerging and Innovative Approaches ............................................................ 40 3.2 The Evolution of Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation ................ 45 3.3 Risk and Risk Management Principles .................................................................. 50 3.4 Adaptation in the Transportation and Infrastructure Sector .................................. 53 3.4.1 Frameworks from the Global Transportation Community ............................. 55 3.4.2 Generalizations of the Risk-Based Adaptation Frameworks .......................... 65 3.5 Conclusions and Observations for Development of an Assessment Framework .. 72 3.5.1 Risk Assessment Framework Structure .......................................................... 73 vii 3.5.2 Risk Assessment Framework Progress Areas ................................................. 75 CHAPTER 4: CULVERT MANAGEMENT DATA AND PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RATING FRAMEWORKS .......................................... 78 4.1 Culvert Inspection Data & Management Systems .................................................. 79 4.1.1 National Culvert Inspection Procedures ........................................................