THE NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY BALANCE Force Developments & Regional Challenges Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy And Aram Nerguizian With the Assistance of Charles Loi [email protected] Revised December 7, 2010 Please note that this document is a working draft and will be revised regularly. To comment, or to provide suggestions and corrections, please email the authors at [email protected] and [email protected]. Cordesman & Nerguizian: The North African Military Balance 12/07/10 Page 2 Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................... 5 I. Comparative Resources & Security Dynamics ........................................................... 7 The Impact of Non-Military Factors ....................................................................................7 Figure 1: Comparing North African GDP Data in 2009 ............................................. 8 Figure 2: Comparative North African Population in 2010 ........................................ 9 Figure 3: Comparative North African National Budgets ......................................... 10 The Security Dynamics of Algerian and Libyan Petroeconomics .......................................... 11 Figure 3: African Proven Oil & Gas Reserves in 2010 ............................................. 13 Figure 4: Historical Evolution of African Oil & Gas Reserves 1980-2009 ................ 14 Figure 5: Comparative Petroleum Income ............................................................. 15 Figure 6: North African Trade Balance in 2009 ...................................................... 16 The Security Dynamics of Moroccan and Tunisia’s Economies ............................................ 17 The Impact of Demographic Challenges ................................................................. 18 Figure 7: North African Population Growth 1950-2050 ......................................... 19 Figure 8: North African Labor Force Dynamics in 2009 .......................................... 20 ................................................................................................................................ 20 Figure 9: North African Occupational Structure ..................................................... 21 Figure 10: North African Unemployment Estimates .............................................. 22 Comparative Trends in Military Expenditures ................................................................... 23 Figure 11: North African Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers in Constant Dollars Have Dropped to Low Levels by Global Standards ..................................... 24 Figure 12: North African Military Efforts Declined as a Percent of GDP. Government Expenditures, Imports, and Total Population: 1985-2009 ................ 25 Figure 13: North African Military Expenditures by Country: 1997-2009 ................ 26 Figure 14: North African Arms Imports as a Percent of Total Imports: 1985-1999 27 Figure 15: The Decline in Libyan Spending and Arms Imports: 1986-2009 ............ 28 Trends in Regional Arms Imports ...................................................................................... 29 Figure 16: North African Arms Deliveries Are Declining, and Are a Minor Portion of the World Market: 1985-1999 ............................................................................... 30 Figure 17: North African New Arms Agreements and Deliveries by Importing Country: 1994-2009 ................................................................................................ 31 Figure 18: New North African Arms Orders by Supplier Country: 1994-2009........ 32 National Patterns in Modernization and Recapitalization .................................................. 33 Algeria ................................................................................................................................... 33 Morocco ................................................................................................................................ 33 Libya ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Tunisia ................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 19: Select U.S. Foreign Military Sales Congressional Notifications to North African States 2001-2010 ....................................................................................... 35 Figure 20: Select Military Sales to North African States from Non-U.S. Sources . 36 Ground Forces Recapitalization and Modernization .......................................................... 37 Air Forces Recapitalization and Modernization ................................................................. 39 Naval Forces Recapitalization and Modernization ............................................................. 42 The Limited Impact of Foreign Military Aid ....................................................................... 44 Figure 21: U.S. Foreign Military Sales Agreements to North Africa 1970-2009 ..... 45 Figure 22: US Military Assistance to North African States 2000 to 2011 ............. 46 The Conventional Military Balance ......................................................................... 47 Broad Patterns in Conventional Force Development ......................................................... 47 Cordesman & Nerguizian: The North African Military Balance 12/07/10 Page 3 Figure 23: Algerian, Libyan, Moroccan, and Tunisian Forces in 2010 .................... 49 Comparative Manpower Quantity and Quality .................................................................. 50 Figure 24: Trends in Total North African Military Manpower ................................ 51 Figure 25: Total Manpower in North African Military Forces in 2010 .................... 52 Figure 26: Total Regular Military Manpower in North African Forces by Service in 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 53 Algerian Military Manpower ................................................................................................. 54 Moroccan Military Manpower .............................................................................................. 55 Libyan Military Manpower.................................................................................................... 56 Tunisian Military Manpower ................................................................................................ 56 Army and Land Force Weapons and Technology ............................................................... 57 As this next section will show, the Maghreb countries maintain a wide variety of land force weapons. Main Battle Tanks ................................................................................................. 57 Other Armored Vehicles ....................................................................................................... 58 Figure 27: Total North African Armor in 2010 ........................................................ 59 Figure 28: Total North African Active Main Battle Tanks by Type in 2010 ............. 60 Figure 29: Total North African Medium Quality & Modern Other Armored Fighting Vehicles (OAFVs) in 2010 ........................................................................................ 61 Antitank Weapons ................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 30: North African Anti-Armor Systems in 2010 ......................................... 62 Artillery Weapons ................................................................................................................. 63 Figure 31: Total North African Artillery in 2010 ..................................................... 65 Figure 32: North African Self-Propelled Artillery in 2010 ....................................... 66 Comparative Surface-to-Surface Capabilities .................................................................... 67 Figure 33: North African Surface-to-Surface Missiles in 2010 .............................. 67 Air Force Aircraft, Weapons, and Technology .................................................................... 67 Algeria ................................................................................................................................... 68 Morocco ................................................................................................................................ 68 Libya ...................................................................................................................................... 69 Tunisia ................................................................................................................................... 70 Figure 34: North Africa: Total Fixed Combat Aircraft and Armed Helicopters in 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 72 Figure 35: North African Active Bomber, Fighter, FGA, and Strike Combat Aircraft by Type in 2010 ...................................................................................................... 73 Figure 36: North African Medium and High Quality Combat Aircraft by Type in 2010 .......................................................................................................................