CASH-FOR-CONVERSION: POLICY OPTIONS TO DEVELOP LOW-COST EVS, USING REBATES FOR RETROFITTING CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES. by Francisco Jose Matiella A capstone submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Energy Policy and Climate Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Francisco Matiella All Rights Reserved !"#$%&'$( The transportation sector currently accounts for the largest portion of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. The light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, composed of passenger vehicles and light- duty trucks, makes up the largest source of emissions within the transportation sector. Reducing emissions from the transportation sector requires rapid decarbonization of LDVs. One strategy for rapid decarbonization requires electrification of the LDV fleet. High costs of new electric vehicles and the increasing age of vehicles on the road provide obstacles to rapid electrification. This problem is of greater significance among lower-income groups, who can not afford the cost of EVs, and whose budgets have them purchasing used vehicles, keeping older vehicles on the road longer. This project explores the feasibility and impact of using existing internal combustion vehicle stock and converting them to battery electric vehicles. The first part of this research explores the challenge of transforming the LDV fleet to electric, the impact on low-income consumers, and the role of policy in enabling vehicle electrification. The second part covers the technical challenges and costs of vehicle conversion. Costs of conversions are then compared to the current electric vehicle market. A comparative analysis, with considered policy options, is conducted and benefits quantified. The results of the analysis show that there is a large amount of variability in vehicle retrofitting costs. With a targeted rebate policy, retrofitting vehicles to electric can open the EV market to low-income consumers. Retrofits can accelerate decarbonization by providing more low-cost options for electrification while reducing the need to retire the existing fleet. The benefits of a subsidized conversion program are much greater than the costs. ""!! ! !"#$%&'()*+($,-.. I would like to thank my mentor, Dr. Austin Brown, for his guidance and patience with me. He challenged me and taught me to think in different ways that were outside of my comfort zone. Dr. Daniel Zachary for being positive and supportive as I considered changing careers and enrolling in the Energy Policy and Climate Program. My mom and dad, who supported me so I could focus on my studies. """!! ! )&"*+(,-(.,/$+/$#( Abstract "" Acknowledgments "" Table of Contents """ List of Tables # List of Figures #" Introduction $ 1.1 Transportation Emissions $ 1.2 Fleet Transition Obstacles % 1.3 Objectives & 2. Background ' 2.1 Rapid Transportation Decarbonization ' 2.2 Fleet Turnover ( 2.3 C.A.R.S. $) 2.4 Income Disparity & Program Design $% 2.5 Costs Barriers $' 2.6 Conversions Requirements $* 3. Methodology $+ 3.1 Conversions $+ 3.2 New Electric Vehicles %) &,&!-./0123435"0/!-6789760".4! %%! 3.4 Limitations %& 4 Results %: 4.1 Conversion estimate comparison %: 4.2 Benefits %( 5. Discussion &% 6. Conclusion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