2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report PREPARED BY 2 Disclaimer This document is published by Western Power as an information service. It does not purport to contain all the information that may be necessary to enable a person to assess whether to pursue a particular investment. It contains only general information and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research and professional advice. Western Power makes no representations or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information in this document. Copyright Notice All rights reserved. This entire publication is subject to the laws of copyright and intellectual property rights. This publication may not be resold or reproduced without the prior permission of Western Power, except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968. 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 3 Preface Welcome to the 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report. This report outlines Western Power’s network development plans based on its second Access Arrangement (AA2) submission as of 31 January 2009, which considers forecast growth in electricity demand from existing and prospective customers and expected generation requirements. We trust this Annual Planning Report will give you a greater insight into our planning process and long term goals for the network. Our objective is to serve the community and industry through prudent investment in the network to provide sustainable, reliable electricity and secure, timely connection. Please note that this report contains general information and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent market research. We value your feedback regarding the level and format of detail provided about specific projects, and any additional information you believe we need to take into account. We look forward to working with you. Mark de Laeter General Manager Customer Services Division. Western Power. 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 4 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 5 Contents Disclaimer Preface Executive summary Invitation to provide feedback 1 Introduction 13 1.1 Purpose of this document 13 1.2 Interaction with the Statement of Opportunities report 13 1.3 Role of Western Power 14 1.4 Approval process 15 2 Network development planning process 17 2.1 Network development analysis 18 2.2 Transmission network planning standards 18 2.2.1 Bulk transmission network 18 2.2.2 Sub transmission network 19 2.2.3 Radial networks 19 2.2.4 Substations 19 2.3 Distribution network planning standards 20 2.3.1 CBD 20 2.3.2 Metropolitan 20 2.3.3 Rural 21 3 Network planning assumptions 23 3.1 Developing and applying electricity demand forecasts 23 3.1.1 Typical drivers of load growth 23 3.1.2 Western Power’s load forecasting methodology 23 3.1.3 Managing weather sensitivity risks in demand forecasting 24 3.1.4 Review of load forecasting practice 24 3.2 Location of new generation 25 3.2.1 Southern generation development scenario 26 3.2.2 Northern generation development scenario 26 3.2.3 Metropolitan generation development scenario 27 3.2.4 Eastern generation development scenario 28 4 Description of load areas 31 5 Projects (approved, committed or commissioned) 35 5.1 Bulk transmission 37 5.1.1 Approved projects – bulk transmission 38 5.1.2 Regulatory Test submissions – bulk transmission 39 5.1.3 Future development projects – bulk transmission 40 5.1.4 Future outlook – bulk transmission 41 5.2 Northern Terminal 43 5.2.1 Approved projects – Northern Terminal 44 5.2.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Northern Terminal 45 5.2.3 Future development projects – Northern Terminal 47 5.2.4 Future outlook – Northern Terminal 48 5.3 Muja 51 5.3.1 Approved projects – Muja 52 5.3.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Muja 52 5.3.3 Future development projects – Muja 53 5.3.4 Future outlook – Muja 53 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 6 5.4 Kwinana 57 5.4.1 Approved projects – Kwinana 58 5.4.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Kwinana 59 5.4.3 Future development projects – Kwinana 60 5.4.4 Future outlook – Kwinana 61 5.5 Cannington 63 5.5.1 Approved projects – Cannington 63 5.5.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Cannington 66 5.5.3 Future development projects – Cannington 66 5.5.4 Future outlook – Cannington 67 5.6 Bunbury 69 5.6.1 Approved projects – Bunbury 70 5.6.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Bunbury 71 5.6.3 Future development projects – Bunbury 72 5.6.4 Future outlook – Bunbury 73 5.7 Western Terminal 75 5.7.1 Approved projects – Western Terminal 76 5.7.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Western Terminal 77 5.7.3 Future development projects – Western Terminal 78 5.7.4 Future outlook – Western Terminal 78 5.8 East Perth & CBD 81 5.8.1 Approved projects – East Perth & CBD 82 5.8.2 Regulatory Test submissions – East Perth & CBD 83 5.8.3 Future development projects – East Perth & CBD 85 5.8.4 Future outlook – East Perth & CBD 86 5.9 Southern Terminal 87 5.9.1 Approved projects – Southern Terminal 88 5.9.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Southern Terminal 90 5.9.3 Future development projects – Southern Terminal 91 5.9.4 Future outlook – Southern Terminal 92 5.10 South Fremantle 95 5.10.1 Approved projects – South Fremantle 96 5.10.2 Regulatory Test submissions – South Fremantle 97 5.10.3 Future development projects – South Fremantle 98 5.10.4 Future outlook – South Fremantle 99 5.11 East Country 101 5.11.1 Approved projects – East Country 102 5.11.2 Regulatory Test submissions – East Country 102 5.11.3 Future development projects – East Country 103 5.11.4 Future outlook projects – East Country 104 5.12 Eastern Goldfields 105 5.12.1 Approved projects – Eastern Goldfields 106 5.12.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Eastern Goldfields 107 5.12.3 Future development projects – Eastern Goldfields 107 5.12.4 Future outlook – Eastern Goldfields 108 5.13 North Country 111 5.13.1 Approved projects – North Country 112 5.13.2 Regulatory Test submissions – North Country 113 5.13.3 Future development projects – North Country 114 5.13.4 Future outlook – North Country 115 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 7 5.14 Guildford 117 5.14.1 Approved projects – Guildford 118 5.14.2 Regulatory Test submissions – Guildford 119 5.14.3 Future development projects – Guildford 120 5.14.4 Future outlook – Guildford 121 6 Other planning issues 123 6.1 Sustainability 123 6.1.1 Planning checklist 123 6.1.2 Environmental management 123 6.1.3 Stakeholder engagement 124 6.1.4 Environmental strategy 125 6.2 Communications network 127 6.2.1 Western Power communication technologies 127 6.2.2 Protection 127 6.2.3 SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) 127 6.2.4 Operations 127 6.2.5 Choice of bearer 129 6.3 State Underground Power Program (SUPP) 130 6.4 Reliability improvement program 131 6.5 Demand side management 133 6.6 Alternative generation 133 7 Abbreviations 135 8 Appendix A – Introduction to network issues 137 8.1 Planning and operating electricity networks 137 8.2 Faults on electricity networks 138 8.3 Meshed and radial networks 139 8.4 Peak demand, weather and diversity 139 9 Appendix B – Substation load forecasts 141 10 Appendix C – Estimated maximum short circuit levels 151 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 8 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 9 Executive summary The purpose of this document is to provide information regarding major planned developments in Western Power’s South West Interconnected System (SWIS). The document is written for existing and prospective network users and other interested parties, in keeping with Western Power’s policy and as required by Economic Regulatory Authority (ERA) guidelines. Network development planning The network planning process is a continuous process one. As such, this Annual Planning Report (APR) is a snapshot of the constraints and network Western Power’s network development plans developments as they are currently understood. are based on regional forecasts of peak demand, assumptions about generation Network planning assumptions developments and a detailed understanding of the capacity of the existing network. These Three levels of demand forecasts are required assumptions are used for sophisticated network for network planning purposes: analysis that ensures each network element • A demand forecast for the bulk transmission satisfies a number of planning and technical system, which is broadly based on forecasts criteria. reported in the Independent Market For convenience, the network is divided into Operator’s 2008 Statement of Opportunities the bulk transmission network and 13 sub Report, and which allows peak network flows across the bulk transmission network to be transmission and distribution load areas. modelled; Each load area is studied in detail to ensure compliance with the relevant planning and • Demand forecasts for each substation, which technical criteria. Where there has been are developed by extrapolating previous significant changes in a particular area (perhaps substation and system peaks for each due to significant load growth or a new substation, and which allow peak power generator connecting), it will be re-assessed as flows across each substation element to be a matter of priority. modelled; and 2009 Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report 10 • Demand forecasts for each load area, which preferred reinforcement options or to propose allow peak power flows across the network any alternative option with regard to these elements in each load area to be modelled. projects. These forecasts are developed using the Major transmission and distribution projects bulk transmission and individual substation provided in this report are classified in the forecasts.