European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight Executive summary Introduction Foresight in the knowledge society Main methods and issues Approaches to forecasting Generating strategic intelligence Scenarios in knowledge society foresight Planning and action Evaluating outcomes Concluding remarks Annexes: Annex A, Annex B, Annex C For full Contents click here This handbook is available in electronic format only Wyattville Road, Loughlinstown, Dublin 18, Ireland. - Tel: (+353 1) 204 31 00 - Fax: 282 42 09 / 282 64 56 e-mail: [email protected] - website: www.eurofound.eu.int Contents Executive summary 1. Introduction 1.1 Who and what is this handbook for? 1.2 What is the structure of the handbook? 1.3 What additional resources are available? 2. Foresight in the knowledge society 2.0 Introduction 2.1 The knowledge society 2.2 Foresight 3. Main methods and issues 3.0 Introduction 3.1 What are the main decisions to be made about a foresight exercise? 3.2 How will the focus of knowledge society foresight be determined? 3.3 How can the areas that require attention be identified? 3.4 What is the most suitable time horizon? 3.5 Who will pay and how long will it take? 3.6 What methods can be used to identify relevant expertise and stakeholders? 3.7 What methods can be used for raising awareness and building support? 3.8 What are the typical approaches for organising and managing foresight activities? 4. Approaches to forecasting 4.0 Introduction: the use of forecasting methods in knowledge society foresight 4.1 Forecasting approaches mainly based on expert judgement 4.2 Forecasting approaches mainly based on statistical or mathematical analysis 5. Generating strategic intelligence 5.0 Introduction 5.1 Panels, expert groups and workshops 5.2 Information inputs for groups 5.3 Working group methods 6. Scenarios in knowledge society foresight 6.1 What are scenarios? Why are they used? 6.2 What is multiple scenario analysis? How can it be used? 6.3 What are scenario workshops for? 6.4 How are scenario workshops organised? 6.5 What is STEEPV? 6.6 Further resources on scenarios © European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, 2003 7. Planning and action 7.0 Introduction 7.1 What outputs and deliverables can be expected from knowledge society foresight? 7.2 What sorts of publications should be prepared? 7.3 What are critical technologies? 7.4 What are action plans and demonstrators? What is their role? 7.5 How could the outputs be followed up? 7.6 Further resources on using foresight-type processes 8. Evaluating outcomes and developing foresight capacity 8.0 Introduction 8.1 How can knowledge about foresight impacts and processes be collected? 8.2 How can stakeholders’ expectations be managed? 8.3 How and why could knowledge society foresight become a continuous activity? 9. Concluding remarks Annexes Annex A: Foundations of futures and foresight research Annex B: Seeking for foresight intelligence: knowledge management challenges and tools in foresight research Annex C: Technological determinism and the critical role of social fabric in knowledge society © European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, 2003 Executive summary The executive summary is a guide to the contents of the handbook. Given the nature of the handbook, it is not appropriate to seek to provide an abstract of the key points. The handbook sets out methods and approaches, and draws a host of conclusions about these, rather than presenting one major argument with a core set of results. To the extent that there is an underpinning argument, however, this is to do with the importance of foresight as a tool in policy analysis, and the importance of recognising that foresight encompasses a wide spectrum of methods and approaches – even if these are united by some common principles. The handbook tackles the major questions that have to be considered in embarking upon knowledge society foresight. It does so largely in a question-and-answer format. Some of the questions are focused on conceptual issues (e.g. on the content of terms such as ‘knowledge society’ and ‘foresight’), while others focus on matters of principles and objectives (e.g. why should one undertake knowledge society foresight?). Many of the questions are practical and methodological (e.g. which methods are appropriate for achieving particular goals? How does this method work?). It is vital to recognise that the methods and approaches employed in knowledge society foresight depend very much on the rationale of the work, even though the principles of knowledge society foresight are general. It is also vital to understand that these methods are not only the tools and techniques of futures studies. Foresight is often seen as futures studies or, worse, as forecasting. In reality, it encompasses a wider range of approaches used in planning, networking and the management of group processes, and organisational learning. Foresight is about shaping the future, not predicting it. The handbook is neither an essay on knowledge society foresight nor is it simply a toolkit of ways to think about long- term futures. It is a guide to foresight and to making decisions to undertake activity in the field. It is illustrated with some examples drawn from relevant activities around the world, while a series of annexes provide more discussion, essays and resource materials for those wishing to pursue matters more deeply. The introductory chapter outlines the structure of the handbook and its aims. The second chapter considers questions arising in the context of the knowledge society, and the relevance and scope for foresight work in this context. It supplies definitions of, and perspectives on, ‘knowledge society’ and ‘foresight’. Chapter three examines the practical issues involved in preparing for knowledge society foresight, explaining what major decisions will need to be made and what methods can be brought to bear. Chapter four outlines the forecasting methods that may be used in knowledge society foresight, both those based on eliciting evidence from experts and those more reliant on statistical or mathematical analysis. Forecasting is only one element of foresight, however, and chapter five examines a broader set of approaches to generating strategic intelligence, focusing especially on the work of panels, expert groups and workshops, and the resources required to support these. Chapter six examines in detail the set of approaches of multiple scenario analysis and scenario workshops. These approaches to generating foresight need to be tied to action, and chapter seven looks at the outputs and deliverables that knowledge society foresight should yield, and the ways these can inform decision-making. © European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, 2003 1 Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight Chapter eight builds on the further steps in evaluating and institutionalising knowledge society foresight, while the final chapter makes concluding remarks. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Denis Loveridge, Rafael Popper and Ozcan Saritas for contributions to this handbook. In addition, the Foundation appointed an advisory committee for the knowledge society foresight project, which discussed the handbook in a number of workshops during 2000-2002. The advisory committee consisted of the following people: Dr Alexandra Costa Artur, Prof. Bengt Furåker, Mr Antonio Giacche, Mr William Jestin, Dr Peter Johnston, Dr Jouko Nätti, Dr Juhani Pekkola, Mr Anders Rosdahl, Mr Wim Sprenger and Mr Roberto Suarez Santos. The authors are very grateful to the advisory committee for their feedback and guidance. Finally, we would like to thank the Foundation’s research managers responsible for the developmental project: Dr Timo Kauppinen, Mr Henrik Litske and Mr Ola Persson. List of knowledge society foresight workshops and meetings: n Impacts of knowledge society on living and working conditions and industrial relations workshop 13-14 July 2000. n The knowledge society and European foresight workshop 12-13 December, 2001. n European knowledge society foresight – Towards a framework of the project and a handbook on foresight methodology workshop 6-7 March 2002. 2 © European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, 2003 Introduction 1 1.1 Who and what is this handbook for? The handbook has been produced for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions. As befits its name, the Foundation has longstanding interests in the areas of living conditions, working conditions and industrial relations. The Foundation has undertaken a four-year programme, Analysing and anticipating change to support socio-economic progress 2001-2004, within which the notion of European knowledge society foresight is important. (The next chapter of this handbook discusses the meaning of ‘knowledge society’ and ‘foresight’.) The Foundation has stated that the purpose of this is to: increase understanding of the drivers of the knowledge society and anticipate impacts of the knowledge society on living conditions, working conditions and industrial relations, in order to identify and to support paths to positive transformation while avoiding unsatisfactory development paths. The aim is to provide improved information about the implications of those contemporary changes that lead to commentators speaking of a ‘knowledge society’, especially for working life and living conditions.