REALIST AND IDEALIST BELIEF SYSTESM IN FOREIGN POLICY By HAYDEN JOSIAH SMITH A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY School of Politics, Philosophy, and Public Affairs MAY 2016 © Copyright by HAYDEN JOSIAH SMITH, 2016 All Rights Reserved © Copyright by HAYDEN JOSIAH SMITH, 2016 All Rights Reserved To the Faculty of Washington State University: The members of the Committee appointed to examine the dissertation of HAYDEN JOSIAH SMITH find it satisfactory and recommend that it be accepted. __________________________________ Martha L. Cottam, Ph.D., Chair __________________________________ J. Tom Preston, Ph.D. __________________________________ Ashly A. Townsen, Ph.D. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to thank everyone who has supported me through my educational journey. First, a big thanks to my parents Faye Smith and Wayne Smith who have supported me in all of my endeavors. My interest in the study of international relations is owed to Darrick Bowman for running Model United Nations in high school. I would not have started down this career path without him. Niall Michelsen has been a wonderful friend and mentor since my first visit to Western Carolina University, where I began my undergraduate study of International Relations. I believe that teachers are the most influential people in our lives and I was lucky enough to have the best ones. Through five years at Washington State University, Martha Cottam has been the best mentor anyone could hope for. She allowed me to explore many different ideas, but was always there to provide guidance when I got off track. This project certainly would not have been possible without her. Tom Preston has also made invaluable contribution to my career in graduate school. His passion for encouraging critical thinking as well as the practical application of research has helped to shape my work. In addition, I would like to thank him for assigning ridiculously large amounts of reading in his classes. Without having learned the ability to process that amount of information writing chapters 2 through 6 in three months would have been impossible. Ashly Townsen’s thorough reading of several drafts of this dissertation as well as other papers has been invaluable during the writing process. I look forward to continuing to work with you all throughout my career. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my beautiful fiancé Julia Pusateri for supporting me through the dissertation process. There were many late nights, more days of frustration, and several weeks of travel that would have been worse without her. Thank you for being there through the highs and lows. iii REALIST AND IDEALIST BELIEF SYSTEMS IN FOREIGN POLICY Abstract by Hayden Josiah Smith, Ph.D. Washington State University May 2016 Chair: Martha L. Cottam Realism has most commonly been treated as a systemic theory in International Relations since the late 1970s and systemic theory has remained separate from theories of foreign policy and decision-making at the individual level of analysis. Returning to classical realism, I bridge the levels of analysis by utilizing assumptions from the philosophical traditions of realism and idealism to create a categorical typology of four belief systems: offensive realists, defensive realists, expansionist idealists, and non-expansionist idealists. The typology builds on the foundational works of operational code. In addition, I incorporate image theory to the analysis, to provide a more nuanced perception of specific actors, which is lost in the generality of the modern VICS operational code. The case studies of presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter provide a depiction of the realist and idealist belief systems respectively. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement........................................................................................................................................iii Abstract..........................................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables.................................................................................................................................................vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. vii Chapter 1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................1 2. Theory and Methodology ...............................................................................................................5 3. Case Study Background ............................................................................................................... 49 4. Richard Nixon: The Realist......................................................................................................... 84 5. Jimmy Carter: The Idealist......................................................................................................... 120 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 150 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................................. 154 1. Jimmy Carter Speeches and Interviews................................................................................... 160 2. Documents from Jimmy Carter Presidential Library ............................................................ 166 3. Richard Nixon Conferences, Speeches, and Interviews ....................................................... 168 4. Documents from Richard Nixon Presidential Library.......................................................... 173 v LIST OF TABLES 1. Operational Code Questions ...................................................................................................... 26 2. Holsti (1977) realist/idealist typology........................................................................................ 27 3. Walker (1983) Operational Code typology ............................................................................... 30 4. New realist/idealist typology....................................................................................................... 39 5. Image Theory ................................................................................................................................ 43 6. Nixon VICS SALT ....................................................................................................................... 89 7. Nixon VICS Middle East........................................................................................................... 105 8. Carter VICS SALT...................................................................................................................... 122 9. Carter VICS Middle East........................................................................................................... 131 vi LIST OF FIGURES 1. Steps in VICS ................................................................................................................................ 32 2. VICS coding scale......................................................................................................................... 33 vii DEDICATION For Ole Holsti, who’s work in operational went unnoticed for far too long. viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION The most predominant form of realism in International Relations is Waltz’s (1979) structural realism. His theory explains the outcome of interactions between states trapped within an anarchic system that is immune to the effects of beliefs and ideology. However, this differs significantly from classical realist thought. Scholars embracing the classical conceptualization of realism treat it as a belief system (Herz, 1951; Claude, 1981, Kertzer and McGraw, 2012) or a prescriptive foreign policy (Carr, 1939; Barkin, 2010; Mearsheimer, 2014). The most recent branch of realist scholarship, known as neoclassical realism, attempts to bridge the gap of levels of analysis by applying realist principles to the individual, state, and systemic level of analysis (Feaver et al., 2000; Zakaria, 1998; Schweller, 1998; Toje and Kunz, 2012; Christensen, 1996; Lobell, Ripsman, and Taliaferro, 2009). While this work speaks to foreign policy there is no recent work employing a cognitive approach. Foreign Policy Decision-Making has been analyzed from many different theoretical perspectives. Some scholars, such as John Mearsheimer (2001), posit that the rational actor model is best suited to explaining decision-making in international politics, while cognitive models (Jervis, 1976; Cottam, 1986) reject the microeconomic decision-making structure of the rational choice model in favor of more complex psychological processes. Other theories of personality profiling, such as Leadership Trait Analysis (Preston, 2001) and operational code (Leites 1953; Leites, 1954; Holsti 1977; Walker 1986; Walker, Shafer, and Young 2005; Renshon 2008; O’Reiley, 2015) provide insight into how elite decision-makers process information, structure their advisory system, and other key factors that influence how and what decisions are made. While foreign policy decision-making is a robust and informative literature, it has traditionally remained